August 25, 200521 yr Baseball prospectus calculates the playoffs odds report by using the log5 method. that's where A-A*B / A+B-2*A*B. team A is the team with the higher win %, team B is the lower winning %. what they do is play out the remaining schedule from today forward for each team in baseball. they run the simulation daily 1,000,000 times. they do slight mods for home-field and things of that nature as well. what they found is... AL EAST red sox have 77% of winning division. 9.79% at winning wild card. 86% chance of playoffs. yankees have 23% of winning division. 23% at winning wild card. 45.33% chance of playoffs. AL CENTRAL whitesox 80% of winning division. 12% WC. 92% playoffs indians 17% division. 37% WC. 55% playoffs twins 2% division. 6% WC. 8% playoffs AL WEST angels 75% division. 4% WC. 79% playoffs athletics 25% division. 7% WC. 32% playoffs NL EAST braves 70% division. 13% WC. 83% playoffs phillies 11% division. 17% WC. 27% playoffs marlins 6% division. 12% WC. 18% playoffs mets 11% division. 16% WC. 27% playoffs nationals 2.4% division. 5% WC. 7% playoffs NL CENTRAL cards 99.5% division. .5% WC. 99.95% playoffs astrols .48% division. 34% WC. 35% playoffs NL WEST padres 85% division. .00083 WC. 85% playoffs dbags 6% division. .00059 WC. 6% playoffs dodgers 7% division. .00100 WC. 7% playoffs if your team wasn't listed, it wasn't worthy of mention. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
August 25, 200521 yr I think its rather laughable that the Mets have a higher chance according to this than us.
August 25, 200521 yr Author I think its rather laughable that the Mets have a higher chance according to this than us. 914639[/snapback] Yep. I think if they flipped Met's numbers with ours, I'd agree
August 25, 200521 yr They consider strength of schedule. The Marlins have the toughest of any competitor.
August 25, 200521 yr Well home field factors in too slightly and I believe the Mets have more home games left than we do.
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