October 9, 200520 yr Here we go...One more left. And to make things more interesting, this is the fathest East and North that a hurricane has EVER formed this late in the season. Waters in the Atlantic where the system is are in the low-to-mid 70's, which is very cool and no stable environment for a storm. They expect the system to fluctuate and then die before ever posing a threat to land.
October 10, 200520 yr 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092048 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 ...VINCE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS... ...MAINLY A HAZARD FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 18.6 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES... 865 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... BUT VINCE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES... 130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 18.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB What a tiny little bugger. :lol
October 10, 200520 yr water temperature needs to be at 82 degrees for a hurricane to form. FYI its probably subtropical.
October 10, 200520 yr They expect the system to fluctuate and then die before ever posing a threat to land. that's good to hear.
October 10, 200520 yr Incredible really. This storm spun up to hurricane strength in a most unusual part of the east Atlantic. It's forecast to hit Portugal as a tropical storm Tuesday morning.
October 10, 200520 yr water temperature needs to be at 82 degrees for a hurricane to form. FYI its probably subtropical. It actually doesn't need to be. :thumbup
October 11, 200520 yr Amazingly enough it looks like Vince in hanging in there and will make landfall on the coast of Portugal tomorrow morning as a tropical cyclone. It's surprising that tropical storm warnngs have not been issued. WTNT43 KNHC 110227 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND WERE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT AT 00Z FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. HOWEVER... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -50C HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE THEN ABOUT 50 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO... A LATE ARRIVING 10/2100Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP V2ON3 LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 KT. QUALITY-CONTROL CHECKS BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA WERE VIABLE... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IT WAS 18Z SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME. THE 34-KT AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THE REPORT FROM SHIP V20N3 AND OTHER NEARBY SHIPS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. VINCE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VINCE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN PORTUGAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN BETWEEN 06-12Z. AFTER MOVING INLAND... VINCE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INTERIOR SPAIN. HOWEVER... WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN 12-HOURS IN THE STRAIT OF GILBRATAR DUE TO THE STRONG FUNNELING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE... WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA WITH EASTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS... EVEN IF VINCE IS AN EXTREMELY RARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 36.4N 9.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 37.9N 6.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER SPAIN WTNT33 KNHC 110228 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON OCT 10 2005 ...VINCE STILL MAINTAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN PORTUGAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... INTERESTS IN AND NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VINCE THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 9.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO DE SAO VICENTE OR THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST TIP OF PORTUGAL. VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VINCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTS PORTUGAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN AROUND SUNRISE LOCAL TIME TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM ...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF VINCE REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS... WILL BE POSSIBLE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTUGAL... SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN... AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...36.4 N... 9.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART
October 11, 200520 yr It just missed the southern coast of Portugal and came onshore on the southern coast of Spain as a tropical depression.WTNT43 KNHC 110829 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005 VINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT... WITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT 00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE SECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS... BUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE QUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED. VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY. WITH NO DATA T NUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY LONGER IS UNWARRANTED. AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF VINCE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR ABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SPAIN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 37.2N 7.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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