Vini, my only complaint with handing Castillo the leadoff spot is his chronic lower body problems and where that leaves the Fish when he's injured again. Other than that you make some valid points regarding AB vs PA and JP's lower than desirable OBP.

 

That said, I just can't agree about his defense. Sure his arm is below average but this thing you and Rferry suggest that he gets bad jumps on balls is from my experience simply not true. I've seen him play about 150 games so far and I just don't find that to be a valid observation. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I've watched him pull down too many balls that most centerfielders wouldn't get near to accept the notion he can't play CF with the best of them.

 

BTW, if I did my math properly, using PA (AB+BB), Castillo, if he had the same PA as Pierre (704) would have struck exactly the same number of times as Pierre, 45. In any case, the strikeout number for both players is ridiculously low. And while it brings us all great joy to watch Castillo torment an opposing pitcher and ultimately trot down to first base the fact is JP has had three 200 hit seasons in the past five years while Castillo has yet to have one, his best being 187 hits in '03 and that number has declined for two consecutive years.

 

Once on base though the picture changes completely. Castillo stole 21 bases in '03 and '04, and only 10 in '05, while Pierre stole 65 in '03, 45 in '04 and as we all know, 57 in '05. That's 167 SB vs. 52 for Castillo.

 

I like both players and I'd trade both players if the deal was the right deal. But when the two of them are both on their game they are devastating at the top of the lineup and I wouldn't want to be the one to chose one over the other.

 

 

 

I agree on your first point.... That's my main reservation also. I just think whomever we get to replace Alex (assuming he is replaced) can fill in at leadoff occasionally. No doubt though that putting Louis at leadoff is a risk.

 

I actually sort of agree with you on the defensive jumps also. I cite it because I've heard it a lot, and also because I remember some scientific data that showed JP had close to the worst range in the NL as a centerfielder. I haven't really seen it either, but it's hard to argue with the second source.

 

While I agree Castillo's hit totals are declining and JP seems to be in his prime, the better number for these guys is OBP. OBP is not always a good stat, especially when it comes to power hitters, but it's a great stat to judge these two by. The notion "A walk is as good as a hit" is no more true than when applied to Juan and Louis simply because most of their hits will be singles anyway. So while Juan may get more hits than Luis, Castillo ends up at first a good number more times when you factor in walks plus hits- and that's basically what we want from both of these guys. Once on base, Juan is more of a SB threat no doubt about it.

 

I think both are good players also, I just think the whole "Two leadoff hitters at the top of the lineup" experiment has pretty much failed more than it has been successful. That's the main reason I want to trade Juan, not because I think he's a bad player. In '03 we looked like geniuses for having those two guys at the top, but since then it just seems like too many things have to go right for it to work out. If you accept that the two leadoff philosophy is a failed one, then your options are to either trade one or to drop one down in the lineup. I don't really think dropping one of them down in the lineup works that well, so I would rather trade one of them. All things considered, including the fact that finding a decent CFer is much easier than finding a decent 2B, I think Luis is the better option for at least the short term. If Juan can learn to work the pitcher a bit more he would be a very dangerous player, but if watching Louls for 3 years hasn't done anything then I just don't see it happening.

Great response Vini, it's appreciated.

 

I'm going to be broken record here and repeat what I opined at the beginning of this thread, which is that part of JP's problem last season were the adjustment, defensively and pitching that other teams employed to limit his success. I don't think it's a matter of watching Looie and learning, it's matter of making adjustments to counteract what the other team is throwing at you.

 

Unlike Rferry who wants JP to slap the ball, I'd like to see a new hitting coach help JP learn how to get out over the plate and hit those outside pitches to right field, whether it be line drives or fly balls and undo the shift they employ against him. When JP pulls the ball down the right field line the world changes.

 

The other thing is I'm still sold on the two lead-off guys at the top theory, but I can be accused of being stuck in the mud. Unfortunately, between JP's early season battle with injuries and Castillo's multiple bouts with hip and leg problems we really didn't get to see them hot at the same time for much of the season. Ultimately you may be correct it was a flawed theory that worked well in 2003 but was fluke, I'm just not ready to say that yet.

I agree that Pierre's season was not as bad as people are making it out to be but there are other factors to consider when talking about keeping pierre.

 

1- luis can leadoff and is actually a better leadoff hitter. (valid issues regarding injury)

2- Pierre will probably command 6-7 million dollars on a team that has budget issues.

3- Pierre has significant trade value. Would cubs trade Pie for mota, a prospect and pierre? What would the yankees trade if they can not get Damon?

4- It might take dealing pierre to get rid of Lowell. I kind of think we should keep lowell but if the Sox lose Damon they might be interested in a lowell and pierre deal if we eat say $2 million a year. Or would they deal Manny for lowell, pierre and a prospect?? Marlins probably could not put that much into two players (carlos and Manny) but cabrera,delgado and manny as a 3,4,5 hitters would be outrageous.

 

Just some thoughts that go beyond performance.

I agree that Pierre's season was not as bad as people are making it out to be but there are other factors to consider when talking about keeping pierre.

 

1- luis can leadoff and is actually a better leadoff hitter. (valid issues regarding injury)

2- Pierre will probably command 6-7 million dollars on a team that has budget issues.

3- Pierre has significant trade value. Would cubs trade Pie for mota, a prospect and pierre? What would the yankees trade if they can not get Damon?

4- It might take dealing pierre to get rid of Lowell. I kind of think we should keep lowell but if the Sox lose Damon they might be interested in a lowell and pierre deal if we eat say $2 million a year. Or would they deal Manny for lowell, pierre and a prospect?? Marlins probably could not put that much into two players (carlos and Manny) but cabrera,delgado and manny as a 3,4,5 hitters would be outrageous.

 

Just some thoughts that go beyond performance.

 

Usually teams want equal value in trades....

I agree that Pierre's season was not as bad as people are making it out to be but there are other factors to consider when talking about keeping pierre.

 

1- luis can leadoff and is actually a better leadoff hitter. (valid issues regarding injury)

2- Pierre will probably command 6-7 million dollars on a team that has budget issues.

3- Pierre has significant trade value. Would cubs trade Pie for mota, a prospect and pierre? What would the yankees trade if they can not get Damon?

4- It might take dealing pierre to get rid of Lowell. I kind of think we should keep lowell but if the Sox lose Damon they might be interested in a lowell and pierre deal if we eat say $2 million a year. Or would they deal Manny for lowell, pierre and a prospect?? Marlins probably could not put that much into two players (carlos and Manny) but cabrera,delgado and manny as a 3,4,5 hitters would be outrageous.

 

Just some thoughts that go beyond performance.

 

:lol lmao 2 good 2 be true