if we do get rid of Lowell and Loria has an extra million or two in his pocket, I would love for us to go out and try and get Kevin Millwood

 

 

Boras is Milwood's agent...so even if we negotiate with him, there's no way Boras lets the reigning AL ERA leader take less than $9 mil a season, especially in this market.

It's a Boog Sciambi trick, when a caller is making sense in a way significantly different than Boog is, he offers him choices that are not really choices at all, "So Bob, which is it, death by hanging or poison, you tell me Bob, you have to chose one or the other, no fair Bob talking Dolphns linebackers Bob, are you going to answer my question Bob, which is it?..."

 

With all due respect to my dear friend Swift, there's no reason to have to chose between Conine and Willingham - they aren't in the same salary ranges, one is your spare catcher the other is not, yes they both can play LF but there's room for both on the team.

 

 

While I understand what you're saying (and agree with it to a degree) since we're playing the "cut payroll" game, and the keep Delgado game, payroll has to be sheared somewhere. If Conine's salary is pared off the payroll (and Mota is non-tendered) we've shaved $5.5 mil off of next season's payroll (assuming Niner plays for $2 mil).

 

Everywhere I've read seems to suggest that a payroll reduction of about 10% is to be expected, and this can be achieved through several uncomplicated ways (and no, Lowell doesn't count because you can't realistically expect someone to take his contract). 1) Trading Castillo who is under contract for $5 mil. 2) Trading Pierre who figures to earn $5.5 mil through arbitration. 3) Non-tendering Mota ($3.5 mil) and having Conine ($2 mil) retire.

 

All three steps result in savings of around 10% of our 2005 payroll, and while Conine and Castillo can coexist, Pierre might have to go...that's the logic I'm using, disagree if you like, I don't care, I'm just showing you where I'm coming from.

 

So that is why I think it's a choice of Conine and Bellhorn or Willingham and Castillo.

 

 

Why would you trade BOTH Pierre and Castillo and not trade/let go through FA Gonzalez (he's as good as gone in my estimation) who will make $8-10 million over the next couple of years and is so easily replaced for less than half that?. Getting rid of both top of the lineup guys makes no sense to me, especially when you're talking about keeping your 7th or 8th lineup guy for more or less the same money?

 

 

 

Also I doubt Conine will cost more than $1.5 million next season.

 

No, I didn't say trade both, I said one or the other.

 

Pick your position to have a rookie or journey man fill in while making the minimum: LF, 2B, CF. Given the desire of four big money teams (Angels, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox) to add a centerfielder and a leadoff man, I think Pierre's value is the highest it will ever be, meaning he'd be the easy choice, especially considering that he doesn't have a contract for '07.

 

And under my scenario, Gonzalez and Encarnacion are both gone.

Why would you trade BOTH Pierre and Castillo and not trade/let go through FA Gonzalez (he's as good as gone in my estimation) who will make $8-10 million over the next couple of years and is so easily replaced for less than half that?. Getting rid of both top of the lineup guys makes no sense to me, especially when you're talking about keeping your 7th or 8th lineup guy for more or less the same money?

 

 

 

Also I doubt Conine will cost more than $1.5 million next season.

 

 

No, I didn't say trade both, I said one or the other.

 

Pick your position to have a rookie or journey man fill in while making the minimum: LF, 2B, CF. Given the desire of four big money teams (Angels, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox) to add a centerfielder and a leadoff man, I think Pierre's value is the highest it will ever be, meaning he'd be the easy choice, especially considering that he doesn't have a contract for '07.

 

And under my scenario, Gonzalez and Encarnacion are both gone.

 

The problem with keeping Castillo is he's chronically injured and hasn't been the same since his hip surgery, nor can you count on him for the 600+ at bats you need from your leadoff hitter. Not to mention the $2 mil due him before the end of his contract as a bonus. The time to get what you can for Castillo is now.

 

BTW I may wind up agreeing with you about Pierre's value, but I think it may be enhanced if the Marlins sign him multi-year (3) at an affordable price (vs going to arbitration with him for one year) and THEN trading him at the end of 2006. I think Pierre would sign a three year $14 mill deal. If he has a good year this season teams will be standing in line to buy out those last two years on his contract.

You guys are making me dizzy!!! :knockout

The problem with keeping Castillo is he's chronically injured and hasn't been the same since his hip surgery, nor can you count on him for the 600+ at bats you need from your leadoff hitter. Not to mention the $2 mil due him before the end of his contract as a bonus. The time to get what you can for Castillo is now.

 

BTW I may wind up agreeing with you about Pierre's value, but I think it may be enhanced if the Marlins sign him multi-year (3) at an affordable price (vs going to arbitration with him for one year) and THEN trading him at the end of 2006. I think Pierre would sign a three year $14 mill deal. If he has a good year this season teams will be standing in line to buy out those last two years on his contract.

 

 

Well, here's my absolutely crazy plan that has about 5% chance of getting done because it requires a heck of a lot going right and since we're talking about more than 3 guys, getting it all to go right is going to be super hard.

 

Fact: Castillo, Lowell and LoDuca all have deals that expire after the '07 season, meaning that $21 million will be coming off the books at the end of next season.

 

Proposal:

 

1) Sign Pierre to a backloaded 3 year deal that pays him $15 million total, but only $4 million a season for '06 and '07 (meaning he makes $7 million in '08...a moveable contract if need be). If the Marlins have dedcided that Pierre is not the centerfielder for them in the short-term, and they'd rather flip flop philosophy and put a guy like Preston Wilson out there on a one or two year deal, then forget this option and deal Pierre this offseason.

 

2) Sign Conine to a heavily deferred deal (it may not seem like much, but getting your starting centerfielder to essentially play for free is a big help). Given his roots in the area, and his restaurant, I have a hard time seeing him wanting to finish his career elsewhere, given what staying with the Marlins can mean to his long-term financial situation.

 

3) Go long term with Beckett...5 years, $35 million, but again, back load the deal so he starts banking big time in '09 (when we have no currently negotiated contractual commitments), and structure his '06 salary to be $3.5 million.

 

4) I'm not sure the legality of this, but renegotiate a contract with Castillo that adds another year to his deal (meaning it runs through '08), but at a reduced salary. I'm sure the MLBPA would be receptive to this given that it gives him a higher total earnings, even if it is for less annually, and I'm sure Castillo would go for it since he's said repeatedly that he doesn't want to play anywhere else, and he actually backed that up by taking less money to stay with us after '03.

 

5) Let Willis go to arbitration, and tender a contract to Cabrera. I'm assuming that the long-term future of the franchise will be decided this season, even if it may mean that they aren't playing in South Florida anymore (which I pray doesn't happen). That stadium deal translates to the long-term contracts for Willis and Cabrera, the rest of what I've proposed simply makes do on the budget we have in our current situation.

 

Under this plan, you can reasonably expect to save 10% needed in active payroll cuts for '06, while delaying the difficult decisions until the '08 season, at which point the Marlins will undoubtedly have a stadium situation in place.