Marlins may fall short if they move

 

By G. Scott Thomas and Kevin Gale

South Florida Business Journal

Updated: 7:00 p.m. ET Feb. 12, 2006

 

An analysis of personal income data indicates the Florida Marlins could strike out financially in another market, even if a viable stadium-funding plan is developed.

 

Bizjournals.com used data on team revenue and ticket prices to estimate how much total personal income a market needs to support a professional sports team. It found only northern New Jersey and the San Bernardino-Riverside area near Los Angeles have the income that would likely support another baseball team.

 

One problem for the Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria: Southern California already has three teams and the New York metropolitan area has two. Major League Baseball, which has an antitrust exemption from Congress, can prevent a team from moving anywhere it wants.

 

Among the nation's four major sports, the Bizjournals.com study indicates an MLB team requires the most personal income from a region - at least $89.2 billion, which is more than double the other three sports. A National Basketball Association team is viable in a market with $38.4 billion, a National Hockey League in a $35.7 billion market and the National Football League, with its revenue sharing and lucrative TV contracts, can work in a market of $33 billion.

 

Baseball needs a lot of personal income for support because there are twice as many home games and 2.5 to three times as many seats as basketball and hockey. That creates a lot of sales inventory. Baseball also lacks the salary caps and has limited revenue sharing among teams.

 

Here's the breakdown of income levels in cities where the Marlins are looking:

 

* San Antonio: The market has $55.4 billion in personal income and is home to the NBA-champion Spurs. Bizjournals.com estimates there is only $17 billion in personal income left to support another team.

* Las Vegas: The gambling and tourism Mecca has no pro teams and $56.2 billion in personal income - enough for any of the other three leagues, but $30 billion short for baseball.

* Portland, Ore.: The NBA's Trailblazers have one of the NBA's nicest arenas in the Rose Garden. Without them, the $86.5 billion in personal income would be almost enough to support the Marlins, but in reality, there's only about $48.1 billion left to support the team.

* Charlotte, N.C.: The Queen City has the NFL's Carolina Panthers and NHL's Hurricanes. Charlotte has $74.3 million in personal income, but there's only $3 billion left for the Marlins.

 

For pro sports in general, South Florida seems to be a market pretty much in balance. The region has $194.7 billion in personal income, which leaves a deficit of only $1.6 billion with four teams.

 

But it's also clear two of the teams are doing better than the others:

 

* The Dolphins are the region's oldest pro franchise, with a storied history. Forbes says the Dolphins, at $856 million, ranked 12th in value among the NFL's 32 teams. The team's operating income was estimated at $15.8 million.

* The Miami Heat, with a modern arena and stars Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade, ranked eighth out of 30 NBA teams, with a value of $362 million, Forbes said in December. The team's operating income was put at $11.5 million

* The Florida Panthers, despite playing in a modern arena in Sunrise, ranked 21st out of 25 NHL teams in 2004, with a value of $121 million, but it lost $3.7 million, Forbes said. A lockout eliminated last year's season.

* The Marlins last April were ranked 26th out of 30 Major League baseball teams in value, at $206 million. Loria has said the team lost more than $20 million in 2003 and 2004. (Forbes notes an operating loss of $11.2 million in 2003 and an operating profit of $3 million in 2004.)

 

Despite winning two World Series titles, the Marlins have usually ranked near the bottom in attendance, despite playing in the nation's sixth-biggest urban area with a population of 5.28 million.

 

Getting a stadium is a priority for Loria and he has good reasons to seek one: Dolphins Stadium is primarily designed for football and the trend in baseball is parks that hearken to an earlier era. Dolphins Stadium is open-air and Loria says the threat of rain keeps fans away.

 

While the Marlins have an ongoing tour of potential suitors, they haven't given up on South Florida despite numerous concepts - such as a park by the Orange Bowl - falling short of financing.

 

The latest discussion has centered on two sites in Hialeah.

 

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11320231/

The Marlins last April were ranked 26th out of 30 Major League baseball teams in value, at $206 million. Loria has said the team lost more than $20 million in 2003 and 2004. (Forbes notes an operating loss of $11.2 million in 2003 and an operating profit of $3 million in 2004.)

 

:lol

 

 

Moving on...interesting analysis.

 

4 times as much income as it's nearest competitor? I'm assuming that pools the three counties.

See: http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index...showtopic=56709

Also hate to break it to the person but the Hurricanes are not in Charlotte they are in Raleigh. I live in Virginia and I am closer to Charlotte then the Hurricanes are. Also Charlotte would support a baseball team on the same level as there football team. Also why did he list Norfolk, they dont have any other sports teams to take away money from them

But they do have movie theatres, amateur football games and water sports. Oh, wait, so do most major league cities. It could be said that South Florida has amore entertainment options, in far more attractive locations, than most existing and prospective major league markets.

good read

 

:thumbup

G. Scott Thomas and Kevin Gale need to perform a little more research. Start with a map of North Carolina. Raleigh, where the Hurricanes play, and Charlotte are two different cities. It's like saying the Orlando Magic take from the "personal income" available to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

G. Scott Thomas and Kevin Gale need to perform a little more research. Start with a map of North Carolina. Raleigh, where the Hurricanes play, and Charlotte are two different cities. It's like saying the Orlando Magic take from the "personal income" available to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

 

Yea thats exactly what I was trying to say, they would have been much better to say the Bobcats instead of the Hurricanes

Also hate to break it to the person but the Hurricanes are not in Charlotte they are in Raleigh. I live in Virginia and I am closer to Charlotte then the Hurricanes are. Also Charlotte would support a baseball team on the same level as there football team. Also why did he list Norfolk, they dont have any other sports teams to take away money from them

 

 

 

Yes, they should have done Norfolk and Orlando.

Just think about the $$$$ that untold millions of people bring to Orlando along with their kids who want tosoee a ballgame.

They only count income of the town's residents, adjusting it for a small fraction of similar yet different entertainment options (big-four major league sports franchises). They didn't count visitors or corporate resources or anything else.

Also hate to break it to the person but the Hurricanes are not in Charlotte they are in Raleigh. I live in Virginia and I am closer to Charlotte then the Hurricanes are. Also Charlotte would support a baseball team on the same level as there football team. Also why did he list Norfolk, they dont have any other sports teams to take away money from them

 

 

 

Yes, they should have done Norfolk and Orlando.

Just think about the $$$$ that untold millions of people bring to Orlando along with their kids who want tosoee a ballgame.

 

Do people who vacation to Orlando really want to go to a ball game? I kind of view it like I do Las Vegas, it's a tourist destination and tourists don't go there to sit three hours in a baseball stadium. As it is, with the millions of tourists that go to Orlando the Magic don't sell out every game....and that's the NBA which has a bigger international following. I also think that another National League team that close to the Braves would have a hard time working. We've seen TBS' influence this far south when the Braves come in, I would imagine it is even greater the further north you go.

 

The writer makes some very good points. From a market standpoint, Miami is the best place for the Marlins.

The writer summarizes an analysis that suggests a market depends on only population, average personal income and other professional franchises. It is a simplified approach that ignores many things key to major league finances, baseball and the market. Ignored is the corporate wealth available. Ignored is any change to that population or its avg. income during baseball season. Ignored are the other attractions that market may have to detract disposable income. Ignored are the values of the people of that market. Ignored is that other surrounding markets offer for television, their ability to pay cable suscriptions, their willingness to watch sports and baseball, their attraction to advertisers.

I doubt MLB would allow a team in Orlando with the Rays 2 hours away in St. Pete.

 

but you never know...

 

personally I think it would be nice to see them doze the Citrus Bowl and Tinker Field and put up a new stadium..

 

I bet Orange County would build it if Loria promised to come.

 

The writer summarizes an analysis that suggests a market depends on only population, average personal income and other professional franchises. It is a simplified approach that ignores many things key to major league finances, baseball and the market. Ignored is the corporate wealth available. Ignored is any change to that population or its avg. income during baseball season. Ignored are the other attractions that market may have to detract disposable income. Ignored are the values of the people of that market. Ignored is that other surrounding markets offer for television, their ability to pay cable suscriptions, their willingness to watch sports and baseball, their attraction to advertisers.

 

 

Ignored is the fact that people get their income tax return right before the season starts !

 

:thumbup