Don't know where this should go since so many of these guys are going to end up playing in the majors this year, but since the article is supposed to be examining minor league systems I'll put it here for now. I don't agree with everything said here, but overall it's not a bad piece.

 

 

 

What?s Working: Well, if you look at just the Marlins' system, it?s pretty fantastic, especially when it comes to pitching. This is the kind of thing that happens when you trade Josh Beckett, Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, Mike Lowell, Guillermo Mota, Juan Pierre and Ron Villone for a grand total of 14 prospects, nine of whom could be considered good or better. The system is absolutely loaded with pitching, especially after they had five picks among the first 44 in June and used them to take five more arms.

 

What?s Not Working: Their positional depth is just average at best, and particularly weak up the middle. Still more potential than sure-thing, Hanley Ramirez is their only top prospect at catcher, second base, shortstop or center field.

 

2006 Rookies: Yes, many of them--and all over the place.

 

With no idea where to start, I?ll just go around the diamond. Josh Willingham is most likely the starting catcher, which is well and good, except that he can?t really play the position on any acceptable level. He already has a history of knee injuries and of 65 opposing base stealers in the PCL last year, Willingham threw out a grand total of nine. Willingham can (and will) hit, but defensively, it could be a nightmarish merry-go-round on the basepaths. Mike Jacobs will play first base, and I agree with PECOTA on him--good power, poor on-base skills. Rule 5 draftee Dan Uggla is a grinder who will likely start at second base now that Pokey Reese is out of the picture (in more ways than one). Uggla is not without skills, but he shouldn?t be a major league starter for any team. The prize of the Beckett deal was Ramirez, who will battle Robert Andino for the shortstop job. While Ramirez has yet to live up to his sizeable reputation, he should be the clear choice for the job at this point. Both players are plus defenders, but Ramirez at least has a chance to do something with the bat.

 

Right now it looks like the Marlins will have an all-rookie outfield as well, with Chris Aguila in left, Eric Reed in center, Jeremy Hermida in right. Aguila is entering his 10th season in the Marlins system, and should be able to hit for a little average, but little else. Reed is out of the Jason Tyner mold, which is not a compliment. Hermida is the star here, and an early candidate for Rookie of the Year honors. I think PECOTA is really missing the boat on him, though. His similarity index is just 20, so he?s an unusual player, and most of his top comparable players were unathletic, while Hermida is a good athlete who went 25-for-27 in stolen bases last year. While writing these system breakdowns, I?ve looked at the PECOTA card for nearly every player I?ve mentioned, and there may not be a rookie who I think has a better chance of hitting better than his 75th percentile projection than Hermida. Also, keep in mind that with this team many things could change--especially in the outfield. There are many rumors of the Marlins sending one of their pitching prospects to Tampa Bay for Joey Gathright, which would make left field a battle between Aguila and Reed.

 

What, you want more rookies? Fine. Lefty Scott Olsen and righthander Josh Johnson are battling for the No. 5 starter job, with Johnson holding the early lead, and Yusmeiro Petit waiting in the wings. Acquired from the Twins, righty Travis Bowyer will begin the season setting up Joe Borowski, but could be closing by mid-season...not that there will be many opportunities for saves.

 

I Like Him Better Than Most: Outfielder J.T. Restko?s .313/.414/.494 numbers in his full-season debut last year may just be the tip of the iceberg. He has already proven he can hit for average and knows how to work the count, but the 6'5" 21-year-old is just beginning to learn how to tap into his power. Among my top sleepers in the game.

 

Don?t Believe The Hype: At this point, Hanley Ramirez is still intriguing, but he?s had three full seasons to put up a big season statistically and has yet to do anything close to it. Makeup has long been an issue with him, and maybe the pressure of playing in the big leagues will be what he needs to turn it around. The glass-half-empty guy would say it could also be a recipe for disaster.

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4843

Can someone please post an explantion of PECOTA? Please keep it somewhat simple for the statistically impaired. Thanks!

 

:mischief2

Can someone please post an explantion of PECOTA? Please keep it somewhat simple for the statistically impaired. Thanks!

 

:mischief2

 

As simple as possible, which is pretty hard with a system this expansive, it is BP's system of player forecasting. It is very in depth and takes into account pretty much everything a player does: BB/K rates, Slug, GB/FB, K/9, etc versus age, toughness of competition, park effects (even in almost every minor league park at this point), weighting current seasons stronger then previous ones, etc. It provides multiple production paths, highs and lows, based on a players past production and what is realistic in a best, mean, and worst case scenario. It includes defense too, to give you a fairly accurate idea of how a certain player performs. It's much more in depth then this, just to mention it, it includes breakout/collapse chances, attrition rate of skills, drop rates of players.... all sorts of numbers that attempt to predict severe increases and decreases in performance.

 

The system is much better at predicting MLB success once a player gets a number of AB/IP in the bigs, which is why younger players have so many divirgent career paths because of the uncertainty of how well specific traits translate to the bigs. i.e., Petit is overwhelming in the minors, but does his 'average' stuff translate into more then 3rd/4th starter success in the majors? Pecota thinks Petit will lead the Marlins in whip in 2006 - 1.17 (Willis # 2 at 1.23). This is what the numbers say based on MLB pitchers in double AA pitching at his level of production, and then moving to the bigs at his age. No one at BP believes this example as a fact though (I hope not atleast), it's just one of those things that happens when a system is based soley on numbers. The challenge for future pecota projections, prospectus writers, and everyone else for that matter, is to figure out how much do unquantifiable aspects thus far - overall makeup, scouting in general, "tools," personaility, etc - play into the overall development of a ball player. Chances are, A LOT. It's going to be fun watching this as a Marlins fan, because we have a number of players that will seriously challenge pecota.

 

-Petit (Pecota # 2 SP prospect in basell, next to Liriano), how good is he going to be compared to Anibal and Olsen - players BA and scouts drool over?

-In two years is Hermida going to be John Olerud, or Lance Berkman with speed. Pecota thinks more of an Olerud/Will Clark player that won't bash 30 HR, but have a ridiculous OBP ability, even though scouts believe the power will come in the future because of his age, body type, and natural swing.

-Does Jacobs really have 30+ HR power? As I said above, once you get some AB in the bigs, Pecota drastically changes your outlook. Jacobs did ridiculous in his first 100 AB, thus it is easy to say Pecota may be severely over-estimating jacobs based on those plate apperances. He's the # 2 1B prospect in baseball

-And Jason Stokes is the # 3 1B prospect in baseball who will be a 30+ HR threat come 2009. He's a late bloomer.

 

I don't think Pecota has much to worry about when it says Uggla, Reed/Abercrombie, will be some of the worst starting players in baseball if they are given that opportunity.

Great info. Thanks for sharing.

 

Is there a PECOTA website you would recommend?

Great info. Thanks for sharing.

 

Is there a PECOTA website you would recommend?

 

Well, I'd start with the source. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota

 

These articles can serve as a crash course in pecota prospect analysis. This is their 5 part series of 2006 prospects. A lot of these have been reposted on the minor/major league forums concerning Marlins players if you want to go digging through stuff. I'm a BP subscriber, I don't know how much of this is avaliable to non-subscribers. Hope I'm not posting dead links.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4750

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4765

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4784

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4825

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4841