i explicitly said that i wasn't making a comparison between reggie on the one hand and miguel and pujols on the other. i was just using them as an example of players that just 'click' all of a sudden. they have the tools and then all of a sudden put it together. that's all i was saying. don't say i was trying to compare them.

 

miguel didn't tear the cover off the ball until he got to double a. his line in high a the season before he got to the big leagues was .274 .333 .421. he tore up double a for two months and then got called up. he hadn't put together a whole season where he was absolutely tearing up minor league season when he got called up. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/m...l-cabrera.shtml

 

and pujols didn't, either. he put up this line in high a ball in 2000: .284/.341/.481... in only 21 games. went up to aaa for 3 games and didn't do well at all. ops of about .550. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/albert-pujols.shtml then he made the jump to the big leagues. there are also questions about albert's true age.

 

both these cats came out of nowhere. now you can say they were much younger and therefore were more likely to just click all of a sudden. and i agree with that. no one is projecting abercrombie to come up and be the next miggy cabrera or fat albert pujols. but, players with "tools" and "raw talent" often do make huge strides in a small period of time. that's just how it works. abercrombie's issue has been strike zone recognition. if he made enough progress in that to become below average for a major leaguer (which is to say, average for someone in aa or even aaa) he can really surprise us and put up something like .270/.300/.550.

 

one last thing... i trust whatever the front office does. it doesn't matter what you or i think of him. they see him day in and day out. if he starts the season as our centerfielder then obviously they see potential there. he might just suck, but i will give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

fair enough.

 

On the last part, though, Abercrombie's chance came through having basically NO outfield depth at the upper levels. I highly doubt the FO went into spring training thinking Abercrombie was their CFer. Hopefully he parlays this chance into major league success. I'm definitely pulling for him. I'd still like to see us acquire Gathright or some other CFer/leadoff man moving Reg to LF and Aguila to super OF utility man.

Actually, at the start of the offseason when massive player movement was decided upon, the front office probably did count on Abercrombie, Reed, or Aguila to be the new CF, since no attempt(and I dont know if I believe the "we passed on Milledge" thing or not) was really made to bring one in. Other positions were either brought back in trade or by rule V.

I meant to say longterm option.

I don't see any reason why Reggie can't have a season very similar to Wilson's first full year in the majors.

 

156 K's, 26 bombs, 20 doubles, and 40 walks.

 

 

How about never doing that even in A ball? There is no reason to think this guy has any tools.

 

BTW, did anyone get to see a game where Stokes was in LF? Was he just totally inept?

 

He was a top prospect in the Dodgers organization as recently as 2004.

 

Here's his scouting report then:

 

Reggie Abercrombie, of

 

Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 210.

Drafted: Lake City (Fla.) CC, D/F 1999 (23rd round).

Signed by: Lon Joyce.

 

Background: Abercrombie entertained college football scholarships before his parents persuaded him to focus on baseball. He has added more than 40 pounds of muscle since signing and draws comparisons to premium athletes such as Eric Davis, Torii Hunter and Preston Wilson.

 

Strengths: Many scouts say Abercrombie is the best physical specimen in baseball. His speed, center-field range and arm strength all earn 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has tremendous bat speed and the strength to drive pitches out of any park to all fields.

 

Weaknesses: Abercrombie?s plate discipline has been downright awful. He appeared to make progress after getting contact lenses in May 2002, but his strikeout-walk ratio worsened in 2003. Though he works hard on pitch-recognition drills, he continues to struggle in that area. He?s overaggressive, gets off balance and chases too many pitches in the dirt and out of the zone.

 

The Future: Abercrombie tore the ACL in his right knee chasing a fly ball in the Arizona Fall League and could be out until May. The Dodgers still protected him on their 40-man roster. Once he returns to Double-A, it will be time for him to start making adjustments.

 

And his stats from AA Jacksonville before the knee injury:

Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG

Jacksonville (AA) 116 448 59 117 25 7 15 54 16 164 28 .261 .298 .449

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/feat...0s/dodgers.html

 

Am I calling him the second coming? No, but he was regarded pretty well until injury derailed him, and I've been high on him for a while (just ask Hugg).

Actually, I could see them wanting(or hoping) Reed was the longterm replacement in CF.

And, just as an aside, Reggie's 23 year old numbers compare pretty favoarbly to Preston Wilson's .245/.275/.437 numbers posted as a 23 year old in the Mets' system.

 

Just saying, since that is my favorite comparison...

i explicitly said that i wasn't making a comparison between reggie on the one hand and miguel and pujols on the other. i was just using them as an example of players that just 'click' all of a sudden. they have the tools and then all of a sudden put it together. that's all i was saying. don't say i was trying to compare them.

 

You base this "all-of-a-sudden" click statement on what exactly?

 

Cabrera took off at age 20. He never spent any time struggling. His skills were manifest right from the start.

 

Pujols spent exactly one year in the minors, clobbered the ball that whole year and then continued to do so in the majors.

 

When did these guys have to get it together? Looks to me like they had it together the whole time. Whereas the best thing one can say about Reggie's performance is that he looked good for the 1/3 of a season he spend in Lancaster 2 years ago.

 

I would love for Reggie to kick major ass, but the simple fact is that there is no reason for me to think that he will. Reed shows more promise, and I am not thrilled about him. If we had a legitimate LF option I would rather leave Aguila in CF.

And, just as an aside, Reggie's 23 year old numbers compare pretty favoarbly to Preston Wilson's .245/.275/.437 numbers posted as a 23 year old in the Mets' system.

 

Just saying, since that is my favorite comparison...

 

 

Preston @ 23 had an OPS about 100 points higher than Reggie @ 23

 

Preston was better than .245/.275/.437 in 1997, that was 1/2 of a season at St. Lucie

 

Abercrome at 23 was worse than Preston at age 23. His 3/10 of a season at Lancaster (.991 OPS) is likely what you are looking at. He had a longer stint with Jacksonville with a .520 OPS that same year.

And, just as an aside, Reggie's 23 year old numbers compare pretty favoarbly to Preston Wilson's .245/.275/.437 numbers posted as a 23 year old in the Mets' system.

 

Just saying, since that is my favorite comparison...

 

 

Preston @ 23 had an OPS about 100 points higher than Reggie @ 23

 

Preston was better than .245/.275/.437 in 1997, that was 1/2 of a season at St. Lucie

 

Abercrome at 23 was worse than Preston at age 23. His 3/10 of a season at Lancaster (.991 OPS) is likely what you are looking at. He had a longer stint with Jacksonville with a .520 OPS that same year.

 

In 63 games with St. Lucie (high A) as a 23 year old, Preston posted a .245/.275/.437 line with 66 K's.

 

In 70 games with Binghamton(AA) as a 23 year old, Preston posted a .286/.344/.560 line with 71 K's.

 

In 116 games with Jacksonville (AA) as a 22 year old, Reggie posted a .261/.298/.449 line. (see above stats from baseball-america).

 

Preston Wilson's 22 year old season looked like .176/.253/.247

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/p...on-wilson.shtml

 

I was just trying to be fair and making, I feel, a completely reasonable comparison. I hardly think that Reggie was substantially worse than Preston as a 23 year old. I am not saying that Reggie's career path will follow, point for point, that of Preston's but Reggie has tools, had a scout's pedigree before injury, and now that he seems to be fully healthy again, he's finally realizing his talent. That's all. Stop the hate. You're clearly wrong in saying that the guy has "no tools" and didn't "do anything" in A ball.

As another note, Hanley Ramirez' season as a 21 year old had a .271/.335/.385 line, yet no one is questioning his ability.

 

I know Hanley will be successful in the pros, but to do that, you have to ignore his minor league numbers of late. Reggie was posting very similar numbers before tearing his ACL. Now that his health is back on track, I expect better than most here are.