I know, I'm just really beginning not to like Girardi. I guess a lot of managers would have done the same thing though...

 

 

 

 

 

 

penguino, with all due respect, you should be more concerned with Messenger and Kensing grooving fastballs down the middle of the plate and giving up bombs in the 8th than Girardi's play calling.

 

 

I also come from the Ed Kaplan school of "bunting is overdone" but in that situation you play for the tie like Das said.

 

 

 

If its the second inning and he bunts then I am in complete agreement with you.

I love it!!!!! F..K the Mets and Billy Wagner!!!!!

BTW Willinghams hit got named "The Big Moment" on FSN...I think it was on Final Score.

 

Yes. And, it was the #1 Top Play on Sportscenter too.

he did it for cuba

Would you give up an out for those odds?

 

 

You're not playing for a big inning, you're playing to extend the game. If you don't bunt, you need two hits to tie the game in 3 chances.....and that's assuming no DP. If you do bunt you need only one hit in 2 chances, and you eliminate the DP threat. Why is it so hard to understand that your chances of scoring the run are drastically better if you bunt the runner over?

Because they aren't. In many statistical studies, Helms' probablity of reaching base safely would ahve to be drastically lower than even his 2006 vs. LHP numbers. Even for one run, bunting doesn't become a net-positive move until you're attempting it with a sub-.200 OBP batter.

Are we going to have day two of this stat-mentality silliness?

I read a good sabremetrics study on this once and the numbers were clearly in my favor. I would like nothing better than to find it.

 

 

 

There's no way. Maybe the average number of runs scored when you don't bunt is higher, but the one run certainly scores more often when you bunt the runner over. If we were arguing in person I'd bet you lunch that you read that wrong.

Nope. There is a .437 chance atleast one run scores with a man on first and none out, and a .406 chance with a man on second and one out.

 

It's pretty simple concept to grasp when you stop thinking in terms of run production (after all, not all baserunners do score) and in terms of 3 outs. Anything is possible before that 3rd out, but much more probable with the least amount of outs.

rferry you should play poker.

 

you would love the implied odds and what not

Are we going to have day two of this stat-mentality silliness?

 

You can take a vacation day. You've earned it.