Ok, I wrote this up because I was bored today, and was supposed to write this two weeks from now, for a school paper, but got an early start, and figured I'd adjust it for this board. I put a lot of work into this, so I hope you enjoy it. I used various resourses, with Wikipedia, being the most helpful. I hope you get the chance to go through the whole thing, and tell me what you think. I'll also update this periodically.

 

BTW, I was too tired to run the final thing through spell check, so bare with me.

 

without further ado

 

Incumbents running for Reelection, whose position is safe for now

Diane Feinstein(D, Ca)

Tom Carper(D, DE)

Bill Nelson(D, FLA)

Dick Lugar( R, IN)

Olympia Snowe ( R, Maine, sorry I blanked on Maine?s abbreviation)

Ted Kennedy (D, MA)

Trent Lott( R, MS)

Jeff Bingamen (D, NM)

Hilary Clinton (D, NY)

Kent Conrad (D, ND)

Kay Bailey Hutchison( R, TX)

Orrin Hatch ( R, UT)

Herb Kohl (D, WI)

Craig Thomas ( R, WY)

 

Now that we have that out of the way, I will break these Races down into 6 categories, Favors Democrat, Leans Democrat, Too Close to Call, Leans Republican, Favors Republican, and an Independent Category(for Vermont). I?ll highlight some of the key issues, and facts in the races, along with news and poll numbers, and ultimately make a prediction as of now. Remember, these are hardly scientific, just my interpretation, looking at news and facts, and in some cases my gut instict. Without further ado...

 

Favors Democrat

 

Race: Rick Santorum (Republican Incumbent) Vs Bob Casey(D), Pennsylvania, Senate

Race Facts: Rick Santorum, is known widely as one of the most Conservative Members of the Senate, which ultimately doesn?t jive well, with a state that tends to go Democrat. Bob Casey JR, is the Treasurer of Pennsylvania, and has the honor of recieving the most votes of any politician in a Statewide Race, he is the son of the much beloved Gov Casey, and a man who?s positions match well with the rest of the state of Pennsylvania(Socially leans Conservative, with a worker Friendly economic stance). Polls show Santorum, is the most vulnerable incumbent of all the races.

Rune?s Pick: Santorum?s views ultimately sticks out like a sore thumb in a state that has grown disenchanted with him. Casey has wide leads in all major polls, and most would have expected Santorum to close the gap, a least a bit by now, his recent attempt at making Immigration a main issue, has mostly fallen flat, given his past voting record(1998) which was Pro-Guest Worker, Pro-Immigration, and Casey?s realitively conservative take on Immigration. Expect Casey, with a relatively easy win, although things can change.

 

Race:Debbie Stabenow(D, Incumbent) Vs either Michael Bouchard, or Keith Butler for the Michigan Senate Seat

Race Facts:Their was some talk of this being a close race, given Stabenow?s razor thin win in 2000, to unseat Incumbent Spencer Abraham. However, neither challenger has caught on, and Stabenow is very close to being moved to the Safe category.

Pick:Stabenow wins easily.

 

Race:Maria Cantwell(D, Incumbent) Vs Mike Mcgavick ( R ) for the Washington Senate Seat.

Race FactsOriginally thought to be a very close race, as Cantwell just barely won in 2000, and due to her relative moderate stance in a Liberal state, their were doubts on her ability to make it out of the primaries. Cantwell, while facing some bitter opposition, made it out unscathed with a massive war chest. Opposing her, is Mcgavick, whose made millions working as a hireup for Safeco Insurance Company. While initially close, Cantwell has begun pulling away in most polls, opening up a double digit lead in some cases, and her moderate positions help blunt any attack by Mcgavick, who is running as a Republican in a heavily Democratic state, and who has a much smaller war chest to dig into.

Pick: Cantwell has successfully taken over this campaign, which appeared in doubt a few months ago. Cantwell, with a sizable single digit win.

 

RaceDaniel Akaka(D, Incumbent) Vs Ed Case(D, challenger) for Hawaii?s senate seat

Race FactsDaniel Akaka, has the distinction of being a liberal, in a state becoming more Moderate, who also has a not so successful record of getting bills passed. His challenger, Ed Case, is a Democratic congressman, who is much more moderate, and is known as an outsider to the Hawaiian Democratic party. Case?s campaign has taken advantage of Akaka?s liberal voting record and distinction by Time magazine, as being one of the Senate?s worst, to give himself a legitimate shot at the seat. Whoever wins the primary, wins the general election, as the Republicans are running token opposition.

Pick: A Once close race, Akaka seems to be pulling ahead, and appears to be safe.

 

Race:Amy Klobuchar(D) Vs Rep. Mark Kennedy( R) for Minnesota?s Senate Seat being vacated by Democratic Incumbent, Mark Dayton.

Race Facts: This race initially appeared to be one that the Republicans had a serious chance to pick up, due to Dayton?s unpopularity in Minnesota. However, it now appears with a fresh canidate in a Liberal state, Klobuchar, is now seen as a strong favorite with polls results showing her with double digit(or close to it) support from likely voters. Kennedy?s closeness with the President, and his loyal voting record, have hampered his chances in a race that could have been very close. This race still has the possibility to tighten but that has yet to be seen.

Pick:This race will get closer, but the Democrats should sleep easy for now.

 

LEANS DEMOCRAT

 

Race Conrad Burns(Republican, Incumbent) Vs Jon Tester(D) for Montana?s Senate Seat

Race Facts:Another race like Pennsylvania, where it appears the Democrat?s are most likely to pick up a new seat. Burns was already relatively unpopular in Montana, before Abramoff broke. Burns is running against the popular State Senate leader/farmer Jon Tester, who has clear populist credentials which plays well in Montana. Tester has a solid but far from overwhealming lead in the polls, and has yet to really hit a bump in his campaign. Burns, still has a shot in a state that went solid for Bush, but Tester is far from a liberal and it?s going to be tough winning re-election with a 38% approval rating.

 

PickTester wins by a solid 3-6% margin

 

Race Either Congressman Ben Cardin or former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume(D) vs Michael Steele( R, appears to be the canidate but still has to win a primary) for Paul Sarbanes?s(D) Maryland Senate Seat.

Race Stats: Maryland appears to be a relatively solid Democrat State, but Michael Steele has proved an adept canidate effectively distancing himself from the unpopular President Bush. Steele will prove a hard canidate to defeat, whoever challenges him. His challenger appears to be the more moderate Cardin, but Mfume is still very much in this race. Most polls show Cardin winning comfortably if he gets the nod, with Mfume, in a much tighter race. Don?t count out Steele though, this race, I believe will get tight, as you have an adroit Black republican, possibly taking advantage of his more moderate positions to pull out an upset.

Pick: It?ll be close but as of now, based on the numbers, you have to go with Cardin, but it will get closer come election time. I still expect Cardin, to win a very tight race[/i]

 

Race:Lincoln Chafee ( R,Incumbent) or Stave Laffey(Republican Primary Challenger) VS Sheldon Whitehouse for Chafee?s Rhode Island Senate Seat.

Race Stats:Perhaps one of the most interesting Senate Races as the Liberal Republican Chafee appears very vulnerable in both the primary and general election. His primary challenger, the conservative mayor of Cranston, Steve Laffey has branded Chafee as out of touch with the Republican party, and has picked up nominations from various Rhode Island Conservative Clubs. Chafee is also at a disadvantage of being in a heavily Democratic state, looking to shake up Washington. Polls show Chafee behind in a close race with Democrat, Sheldon Whitehouse, and in a deadheat with Laffey. If Laffey wins the primary, the Democrats pick up this seat. Even if Chafee survives the primary, it still appears he may lose his general seat.

Pick:I?ll take Chafee is he wins the primary, in a razor thin margin. However, for the primary, you usually have the bastions of the Republican party out in full force, out numbering the more moderate breathren, I expect Chafee to lose a close race, and expect Whitehouse to win fairly easily against Laffey in November/

 

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

RaceRobert Menendez(D, Incumbent) Vs Thomas Kean Jr( R ) for Menendez?s Senate Seat

Race FactsMenendez was the man who won the Senate seat after Corzine was elected governor, which means Menendez has still yet to be approved by the voters, and sports a middle of the road approval rating. Kean, is a socially liberal, and economically conservative, which will play well in New Jersey, he is also the son of a popular former governor. Those two factors, make him the most likely Republican to take a Democratic Senate Seat, however he?s also running in a state which sees Bush in the lowest light. Polls show this race a dead heat, with Menendez winning by the barest of margins in most, but not all polls. This is going to be a dead heat race.

Pick: I really hate to say it, but Kean looks solid, I think he?s going to pour it on in the end and win a tight race. However, with New Jersey?s distaste for Republican?s right now, nothing is guaranteed, but look for his moderate positions to smooth that out. I?ll take Kean but this race is VERY close.

 

Race:Joe Lieberman(D, Incumbent, possibly Independent?) Vs Ned Lamont for Lieberman?s senate seat in CT

Race FactsAnother real interesting race, the Republicans stand little chance of picking up a seat here but the Democrats risk losing one if Lieberman wins as an independent. It?s looking for and more likely Lamont will pick up the Democratic Nod, and possibly challenge Lieberman as an independent. Polls show Lieberman would win as an Independent, but that has tightened and much of that support is coming from Democrat?s likely just venting at their disappointment with the Democratic Parties luke warm support of Joe. I personally expect Lieberman to drop out if he loses the primary, but even if he remains I?ll still take Lamont, as it?s unlikely Lieberman could count on the same type of support both monetarily, and endorsement wise, he currently enjoys.

Pick:Lamont.

 

RaceJim Talent( R, Incumbent) Vs Claire McCsskill(D) for Talent?s Missouri Senate Seat

Race Facts: Missouri is often seen as a lithmus test for national opinion, with wide ranging political views throughout. This race, appears to be an excellent test for how the Democrats will fare election night, they win, don?t be suprised if the rest fall like Dominoes. Talent is running as a semi - unpopular Senator, who?s recent voting record provides many caveats, and dangers. Including his recent ban on federal funding for Stem Cell research, which may hurt Missouri more than any state, as it was hoping to become a beacon for Scientists world wide, and make it a vital part of it?s economy. McCaskill had run several successful state wide campaigns, and proved an impressive campaigner during her run for the Governor, which ended in failure, but still proved her adroit, and paved the way for today?s nomination. Most polls show this race, a dead heat, with Talent?s relative unpopularity, and controversial stances on many issues hampering his party, however McCaskill for the most part comes out on top in hypothetical matchups, setting the stage for a very close race.

Pick:It?ll be very close, but expect the stem cell issue to play a crucial role, and expect Claire to win in a tight 2 - 3% race.

 

Race Mike Dewine( R, Incumbent) Vs Sherrod Brown(D), for Dewine?s Ohio Senate Seat.

Race Facts:Dewine is another tale of an incumbent who is being undermined by a low approval rating, and party scandal, which threatens to undermine Ohio?s Republican Party. Brown, is a popular former Ohio Secretary of State, and current Congressman. Dewine, initially enjoyed a slight, but consistent lead in most polls, however Ohio Republican Party Scandal involving Coingate, has made Brown, the new favorite in this race, enjoying nice leads in recent polls. I expect this race to get tighter, but what once appeared a close race that favored Dewine, has now switched, and Dewine could become swept away in the Democrat?s culture of corruption campaign.

PickThis race tightens, but as of now you have to take Brown but I still think Dewine has an excellent chance of regaining his seat.

 

LEANS REPUBLICAN

 

 

 

Race:Harold Ford Jr(D) Vs Bob Corker? for Bill Frist?s vacated Tennessee Senate Seat

Race Facts:Ford, is a rising star in the Democratic Party, with a very moderate voting record, and a friend of many conservative media pundits. He is also hampered, however, by some family scandal, and the fact that their?s yet to be a Black Senator from the deep south. He?s running against Republican Bob Corker, who currently enjoys decent margins over Ford. Ford, however, is an excellent campaigner, and whose connections with Fox News, and Imus, make him a big tent canidate who may very well become the first black Senator from the Deep South. This is certainly a race worth watching, and could pave the way for a revival of the New Democrat?s, that was started with Bill Clinton 14 years ago.

PickWhile right now you?d go with Corker, I have to go with my gut and admiration for Ford, and call the upset. Some may say I?m being partisan and you?re probably right, but I?m not betting against a guy I, and many greatly admire.

 

FAVORS REPUBLICAN

 

Race:Jon Kyl( R, Incumbent) Vs Jim Pederson (D) for Kyl?s Arizona senate seat

Race Facts:While intially believed to be close, given Kyl?s lackluster approval rating, he mostly enjoys double digit margins against former Democratic Arizona Chair, Jim Pederson. The margins have come down however, and Pederson has a strong war chest, but it?s probably not enough to overcome Kyl, who?s close to become a national figure.

PickKyl wins by 5-7%

 

Race:John Ensign( R, Incumbent) Vs Jack Carter (D), for Ensign?s Nevada Senate Seat

Race Facts:Ensign?s middle of the road approval rating, initially spelled trouble for the incumbent, so in came the Democrat?s carrying Jack Carter, son of Jimmy, on it?s back hoping to unseat Ensign. What has followed has been a very disappointing campaign for Carter, and what appears to be a safe seat for Republicans.

PickEnsign, easily

 

Race:George Allen( R, Incumbent) Vs James Webb(D) for Allen?s Virginia Senate Seat

Race Facts:One of the clear examples of Democrat?s running big tent canidates in the hopes of knocking off a popular Republican, in a moderate Republican state. Webb, is a former Republican, and Vietnam Vet, whose dislike of the Iraq War, led him to switch allegiances. While Allen, currently enjoys a comfortable lead in the polls, they have trimmed, and as Webb begins to campaign even further after a tough primary battle, he just may have a shot. It?s still a long shot, but is a clear example of the Democrats coming a long way in fielding Canidates. Webb and Allen, also differ on the issue of Abortion(pro choice, Pro - Life), and another key difference, is Cash. Allen has considerable coffers mainly accumulated for a possible Presidential fund. He may not enjoy it, if he uses that to fend off a game, underdog like Webb.

Pick:Expect it to narrow, but Allen?s the clear favorite.

 

INDEPENDENT

 

Race:Bernie Sanders(I), in a virtual lock to take over for Jim Jefford?s(I) Vermont Seat. While both Independents, Jefford?s was more moderate while Sanders is an open, Democratic - Socialist member. Sanders will win, and mostly vote with the Democrats, but he still goes down at an Independent.

 

Well that wraps it up, as my predictions stand right now, the Democrats, pick up 6 seats, as I see it but also lose one in New Jersey, which would give them a net gain of 5, just 1 outside the margin they would need to take back the Senate, but the Democrats are certainly capable of doing it. On the same end, the Republicans are playing defense, hoping to keep their majority, with an eye on 08, when it?s an unlikely the party will be this unpopular. If they can pick off NJ, and keep just one of their contested Seats on their side, they?ll be fine, but this is going to be one hell of an election year.

Pretty damn good overview Rune.

 

And Maine is ME for the abbreviation.

Good analysis. I probably disagree with the conclusion on NJ and TN but not on your analysis. I switch those two and see a 5 seat gain as best case scenario which puts dems at 49, reps at 50 and 1 indy that caucuses with the dems. It doesnt give the dems Senate control but it is devastating for Bush.

Good analysis. I probably disagree with the conclusion on NJ and TN but not on your analysis. I switch those two and see a 5 seat gain as best case scenario which puts dems at 49, reps at 50 and 1 indy that caucuses with the dems. It doesnt give the dems Senate control but it is devastating for Bush.

 

Well, I still see the Democrats taking Congress and 49 in the Senate still gives you a good chance to get legislation passed, as you still have moderate voices on the Republican side. As long as they can pick up at least 4 seats, I'll be happy. They need to take Congress, however, for me to view this as a great success.

Good analysis. I probably disagree with the conclusion on NJ and TN but not on your analysis. I switch those two and see a 5 seat gain as best case scenario which puts dems at 49, reps at 50 and 1 indy that caucuses with the dems. It doesnt give the dems Senate control but it is devastating for Bush.

 

Well, I still see the Democrats taking Congress and 49 in the Senate still gives you a good chance to get legislation passed, as you still have moderate voices on the Republican side. As long as they can pick up at least 4 seats, I'll be happy. They need to take Congress, however, for me to view this as a great success.

Absolutely. Taking control of the House is key for the democrats. It would seem tougher since the races can be localized. But there are more seats in play and they have less of a hurdle to overcome than the Republicans did in 1994. I think the hope is to take seats in bunches in states like NY and Ohio.

 

However Im holding my breath because this is the Dems and the Republicans are known for closing the deal on election night.

 

One other thing to look out for that is going to be important over this election and the next election is control of state legislatures and governerships. Redistricting last time around really entrenched a lot of Republicans incumbents.

I would disagree on 3 races , TN will remain in republican hands Ford has family issues that may taint some voters views of him additionally corker has cross over appeal . 2nd talent will retain his seat, it is true the polls are about even but Talent is an excellent campaigner and a good debater additionally missouri is imo a borderline bible belt state while it wont give republican huge margins i think missouri tips ever so slightly to right . as to ohio i think dewine will squeak it out , i think the governorship is the race that ohio voters will take out their frustration on republicans. dewine's weakness is on the right his base has not gotten fully behind him because tv advertising ran against him from the right that criticized him for compromising on judical picks (gang of 14 ) i suspect the right will fall back in line for dewine and he will win with 50-51% of the vote . Overall i think the democrats will pick up 3-4 seats in senate and some house seats but the real victories will come at the state level their are alot of governships that will realign to their natural political leanings . I think the dems will pick up mass , newyork , liberal states that will elect a liberal i wouldnt be suprised if Maryland goes the democrats way although erhlich by most objective accounts has done a good job the numerical supremacy of democrats in md could oust him from office . additionally there are several conservative leaning states that are prime targets ohio looks almost like a sure thing for the dems , alaska could go the dems way . the opportunities for the democrats at the state level are numerous . Oddily i dont think they will get one of the most liberal states california just a gut feeling arnold is going win ............................as to my home state i see charlie crist a moderate republican retaining the governorship for the republicans , he wont crush his opponent like Jeb did in 02 but i see a solid 3-5 point win , i see crist winning because of his moderate views that appeal to independents , overall florida's economy is good , additionally both democrats dont have the name recognition that crist has , and that is a factor in a big state like florida . Crist has ran several statewide campaigns whereas his opponents arent know very well outside of their districts . as to the senate race really not much to discuss Nelson will retain his seat if harris is the candidate the closest i see this race is 10 points more than likely nelson will win by 15-20 points .Nelson isnt particularly a strong candidate but harris is a disaster , between her direct conversations with God , her appearances at campaign events short skirts and sucking on loli-pops (seriously) and her substanceless campaign and the general disorganization of her campaign staff i seriously believe just about anyone one this forum could run against nelson and do better than harris would do . additionally her campaign rationale was flawed from the begining harris has never been a big voter getter she has high name recognition but the truth is even republican leaning voters dont care for her , if you dont believe me check the precentage of votes she recieved in her district and the votes jeb and w recieved each time both performed several percentage points higher than harris . 06 will bring us literallly to a 50/50 gridlock in the house and senate and nothing will get done until after the 08 elections

All I know is that Henry Bonilla may be in trouble in San Antonio now thanks to the brand new redistricting and Ciro Rodriguez may in fact return to Congress next spring.

 

 

That will be glorious.