I have no fear, the Marlins will lock up Cabs

If you have no fear, then you have no brain.

I have no brain because I'm confident in what the FO will do? Or is it because I trust that the FO will do whats best for the team

Based on their past actions, all indications are that you should be fearful. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that they will keep Miggy. Do I want them to? You betcha. But am I confident? Hell no.

Past actions? Aside from last year, I recall only one time that a player that had use to the club was traded away over worries of a salary increase. That being Derrek Lee.

Was last year in the past RFerry? I rest my case.

 

You can't discount a year just because it doesn't fit your argument model.

 

Seeing as we have no more well payed veteran players, I would say that the burden of proof lies on the other side of the argument to show why we should believe they will re-sign Cabrera. I'm not saying they won't. I'm saying to assume they will is foolhardy.

You don't necessarily ignore outliers, you explore them, but you don't let them become the result of your analysis in face of overwhelming data from other years.

 

 

Despite our mistrust of the front office, the possibility that a team will trade one of its best players and whom it holds contract rights that will undermine his value below what he'd receive on the open market is remote. Even if we were to suggest the Marlins want to, there's a number of things that could go wrong that could prevent a trade from being made. The burden of proof does not lie with me because of any actions of the front office, Miggy or his agent, but because of the calls by fear-makers trumping the existence of the boogeyman.

I have little doubt that he will be here through his arbitration years (except if they decide to trade him in during his last arby year). I am referring to locking him into a contract that would extend beyond arbitration. JH #1 was saying that he had no doubts that the front office would lock him up long term (something I took to mean beyond arbitration). THAT was what I was refuting, not continuing to use the arbitration system to our advantage.

I have no fear, the Marlins will lock up Cabs

If you have no fear, then you have no brain.

I have no brain because I'm confident in what the FO will do? Or is it because I trust that the FO will do whats best for the team

Based on their past actions, all indications are that you should be fearful. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that they will keep Miggy. Do I want them to? You betcha. But am I confident? Hell no.

Past actions? Aside from last year, I recall only one time that a player that had use to the club was traded away over worries of a salary increase. That being Derrek Lee.

 

Cliff Floyd, Brad Penny (to sign Pavano), Mark Redman, non-tendering Looper, Lee (to sign Pudge) and Juan Pierre, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Carlos Delgado, Guillermo Mota and Luis Castillo were all traded for salary reasons.

 

We've been buyers in each of the last 3 seasons, a seller in '02 and standing pat in '06. That skews the "trade" numbers, but allowing players to walk in free agency is very much the same animal. In that area we've lost Pudge, Urbina, Gonzalez, Burnett, Benitez, Jones, Pavano...and those are just the names of desireable players.

 

There's no precedent for the Jeffrey Loria led Marlins to actually negotiate a contract they intend to honor, since the only multi-year contracts he's ever negotiated with us are now the property of other teams.

You don't necessarily ignore outliers, you explore them, but you don't let them become the result of your analysis in face of overwhelming data from other years.

I don't consider last year an outlier at all. The FO has consistently decided not to engage in or honor long term contracts. Pudge was a one year commitment. Delgado, for all intensive purposes, was as well. Lowell and Castillo -- the only two players to be signed to long term contracts -- were unceremoniously disgarded. Whether that rationale be prudent or not, is irrelevent. What it shows is a consistency within the FO to not hold on to players long-term. In that face of that evidence, to blindly trust the FO to keep any player long-term is completely irrational. That is my argument.

I have no fear, the Marlins will lock up Cabs

If you have no fear, then you have no brain.

I have no brain because I'm confident in what the FO will do? Or is it because I trust that the FO will do whats best for the team

Based on their past actions, all indications are that you should be fearful. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that they will keep Miggy. Do I want them to? You betcha. But am I confident? Hell no.

Past actions? Aside from last year, I recall only one time that a player that had use to the club was traded away over worries of a salary increase. That being Derrek Lee.

You must be joking, right? A bit of sarcasm perhaps. If not, why don't you hit us with some of your overwhelming data. Name an overwhelming number of players that were kept who were playing up to expectations without regard to future salary going over 1.5M.

I have little doubt that he will be here through his arbitration years (except if they decide to trade him in during his last arby year). I am referring to locking him into a contract that would extend beyond arbitration. JH #1 was saying that he had no doubts that the front office would lock him up long term (something I took to mean beyond arbitration). THAT was what I was refuting, not continuing to use the arbitration system to our advantage.

Oh. My mistake. I don't think Cabrera or Dontrelle will sign to long-term deals either. But then, unlike some, I don't consider it a travesty or a signal of the end of their Marlins careers if they don't.

I said "re-sign" where I meant to "sign long term". I mispoke. Apologies.

I have no fear, the Marlins will lock up Cabs

If you have no fear, then you have no brain.

I have no brain because I'm confident in what the FO will do? Or is it because I trust that the FO will do whats best for the team

Based on their past actions, all indications are that you should be fearful. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that they will keep Miggy. Do I want them to? You betcha. But am I confident? Hell no.

Past actions? Aside from last year, I recall only one time that a player that had use to the club was traded away over worries of a salary increase. That being Derrek Lee.

You must be joking, right? A bit of sarcasm perhaps. If not, why don't you hit us with some of your overwhelming data. Name an overwhelming number of players that were kept who were playing up to expectations without regard to future salary going over 1.5M.

The vast majority of players in the Loria tenure. Willis, Beckett, Burnett, LoDuca, Mota, Redmond, Looper and Pavano were all kept despite expectated pay raises through arbitration and some suggestions otherwise. Encarnacion, Redman and Lee are the only examples and we only had use of one of the three. Penny was hardly a consequence of financial concerns as when the trade went down I tried to explain that we took on present and future salary.

I have little doubt that he will be here through his arbitration years (except if they decide to trade him in during his last arby year). I am referring to locking him into a contract that would extend beyond arbitration. JH #1 was saying that he had no doubts that the front office would lock him up long term (something I took to mean beyond arbitration). THAT was what I was refuting, not continuing to use the arbitration system to our advantage.

Oh. My mistake. I don't think Cabrera or Dontrelle will sign to long-term deals either. But then, unlike some, I don't consider it a travesty or a signal of the end of their Marlins careers if they don't.

Exactly. A lot of people don't realize this. If they don't sign long term now, which I don't think either of them will, that doesn't mean that's the end of their careers with the Marlins.

I have no fear, the Marlins will lock up Cabs

If you have no fear, then you have no brain.

I have no brain because I'm confident in what the FO will do? Or is it because I trust that the FO will do whats best for the team

Based on their past actions, all indications are that you should be fearful. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that they will keep Miggy. Do I want them to? You betcha. But am I confident? Hell no.

Past actions? Aside from last year, I recall only one time that a player that had use to the club was traded away over worries of a salary increase. That being Derrek Lee.

 

Cliff Floyd, Brad Penny (to sign Pavano), Mark Redman, non-tendering Looper, Lee (to sign Pudge) and Juan Pierre, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Carlos Delgado, Guillermo Mota and Luis Castillo were all traded for salary reasons.

 

We've been buyers in each of the last 3 seasons, a seller in '02 and standing pat in '06. That skews the "trade" numbers, but allowing players to walk in free agency is very much the same animal. In that area we've lost Pudge, Urbina, Gonzalez, Burnett, Benitez, Jones, Pavano...and those are just the names of desireable players.

 

There's no precedent for the Jeffrey Loria led Marlins to actually negotiate a contract they intend to honor, since the only multi-year contracts he's ever negotiated with us are now the property of other teams.

 

Pudge was offered a very fair contract and he opted to go for the bigger $$$. Benitez said he wanted to go to a team that had a shot at the WS Championship, so he opted to sign with SF, then of course we won the WS. You have AJ as a "desireable"?? The same club house cancer that was actually fired the last week of the '05 season??? Pavano opted for the big payday after one good year in his entire career and look how that has worked out.

Lee was not released to sign Pudge. They were here at the same time. Lee was traded because the team had only so much $$$ to work with and opted to use that cash to sign Mikey and Gonzo (or was it Castillo?). Didn't that also lead up to our highest payroll ever??

Seems to me you are twisting things, combining things that shouldn't be combined, and inventing facts to make your case.

It's kind of pointless to discuss free agency IN A DISCUSSION ABOUT SIGNING AN ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYER, but also as we all know the Marlins are neither a desirable franchise or capable of outbidding the other 29 teams in the league regardless of our owner or the philosophies of our front office.

 

There's no proof to the accusation that the Marlins have a tendency to trade quality arbitration-eligible talent prior to salary raises. So those who continue to raise such fears about Miggy and Dontrelle being traded should shut their traps or atleast focus on the specific case.

It's kind of pointless to discuss free agency IN A DISCUSSION ABOUT SIGNING AN ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYER, but also as we all know the Marlins are neither a desirable franchise or capable of outbidding the other 29 teams in the league regardless of our owner or the philosophies of our front office.

 

There's no proof to the accusation that the Marlins have a tendency to trade quality arbitration-eligible talent prior to salary raises. So those who continue to raise such fears about Miggy and Dontrelle being traded should shut their traps or atleast focus on the specific case.

Under Loria we have either traded away or not re-signed every single player that was making decent money or who was in line to make decent money. Some of those were good decisions but the fact is if a player makes decent money there's a very good shot Loria will eventually salary dump him.

It's kind of pointless to discuss free agency IN A DISCUSSION ABOUT SIGNING AN ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYER, but also as we all know the Marlins are neither a desirable franchise or capable of outbidding the other 29 teams in the league regardless of our owner or the philosophies of our front office.

 

There's no proof to the accusation that the Marlins have a tendency to trade quality arbitration-eligible talent prior to salary raises. So those who continue to raise such fears about Miggy and Dontrelle being traded should shut their traps or atleast focus on the specific case.

Under Loria we have either traded away or not re-signed every single player that was making decent money or who was in line to make decent money. Some of those were good decisions but the fact is if a player makes decent money there's a very good shot Loria will eventually salary dump him.

 

Talk about a total distortion. What happened last off season was in reaction to losing a stadium deal that had been purposefully held hostage for almost two years by Joe Ariolla as he attempted extort the Marlins and force them to sell their franchise to a foreign national who funds his boss' campaigns.

 

The facts are, while yes some players came and went, that happens with every team, payroll had risen every year until 2006 and in fact between 2004 and 2005 the Marlins had spent $120 million on payroll, $55 million in 2004 and $65 million in 2005, in the belief the city of Miami was negotiating in good faith and a new stadium would (by now) already be under construction. There's a reason the county has remained their steadfast partner in all this since the fiasco with Ariolla and company, because the easiest and most expeditious thing for the county to do would have been to just walk away if they thought the Marlins were at fault in those negotiations. Instead they've stayed the course which should tell us all something.

 

When the Miami deal was exposed for the sham it was, the Marlins, stuck with, by all accounts the worst lease in baseball if not all sports, made the difficult choice to dump virtually everyone and start again, and to their credit wound up with a competitive team that sported three of the four top vote getters in NL rookie of the year voting.

 

What happened last off-season should not be looked on as anything other than an aberration. This morning's newspaper reports the Marlins have increased payroll to $25 million this season, admittedly an awfully low number by MLB standards, but a step in the right direction and I believe the beginning of even more spending in subsequent years.

 

That has been the pattern.

 

At the same time, putting Willis and Cabrera aside for a moment, are they going to start handing out multi-year deals to free agents like a JD Drew or others at big bucks? No. Are they going to let some players go when they get too expensive? Yes. Happens everywhere in the sport and this team is no different.

 

There isn't one trade I would have undone from last season including Castillo's because had it not been that one that blew up, maybe Hanley and Annibal would have been bombs instead and then where would we be. And who would rather have Alex Gonzalez now? The guy is not anyone's A choice as a free agent SS. He's a fallback guy. If they don't sign fillintheblank, Gonzo will be available. Ditto several others.

 

The same kind of mean-spiritedness implied above is displayed in those who accuse Loria of doing the same thing in Montreal when the facts (and dates) prove otherwise. A popular misconception is that Loria and company broke up the Expos and traded Vlad Guererro, etc., when in fact the dates of ownership and those trades shows it wasn't the case. But people still repeat the fantasy all the time.

 

Personally I suspect that a year or two from now the Marlins will be a better team than if they kept the 2005 team intact, if it doesn't happen this season. Jettisoning an overpaid group of aging underachievers who couldn't win in 2004 or 2005 had less (but admittedly some) to do with payroll as it did performance, the piece of the equation so often left silent.

 

I'll say it again, it happens all the time in baseball, players come and go based on their relative worth to the team their on at any given time and yes, with the Marlins moreso. But that doesn't mean every player will be traded solely because of $ because that's just isn't the case.

 

And saying it is doesn't make it so.

It's kind of pointless to discuss free agency IN A DISCUSSION ABOUT SIGNING AN ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYER, but also as we all know the Marlins are neither a desirable franchise or capable of outbidding the other 29 teams in the league regardless of our owner or the philosophies of our front office.

 

There's no proof to the accusation that the Marlins have a tendency to trade quality arbitration-eligible talent prior to salary raises. So those who continue to raise such fears about Miggy and Dontrelle being traded should shut their traps or atleast focus on the specific case.

Under Loria we have either traded away or not re-signed every single player that was making decent money or who was in line to make decent money. Some of those were good decisions but the fact is if a player makes decent money there's a very good shot Loria will eventually salary dump him.

Changed the word 'decent' to 'significant' and 'Loria' to 'any one who has ever, is or will ever own the Marlins under Huizenga's lease terms' then you may have something.