Yea, Miller really does tend to just get really unlucky. Nobody ever hits the ball hard off of him, but they find holes. It's very painful to watch.

 

 

Its the same with Volstad. Probaly 90% of the hits off him are singles and many are infield hits.

Yea, Miller really does tend to just get really unlucky. Nobody ever hits the ball hard off of him, but they find holes. It's very painful to watch.

Miller had worst DIPS percentage last year with any pitcher over 100 innings, an atrocious .67%. His DIPS era was 3.96, almost two full runs lower than his actual ERA. He got really unlucky with his BABIP, .327, and the defense no doubt let him down. Basically, the stats paint him as the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last year. There is going to be marked improvement very fast with him. It's only a matter of time.

 

And for the hell of it, with pitchers over 80 innings last year, Volstad was the 8th luckiest with a 1.34 DIPS percentage, and a DIPS era of 3.85. Almost a full run over what he did. Now Volstad gives up a lot of ground balls/doesn't whiff guys at a plus rate, so it is likely he will always be an 'overachiever' using independent defensive metrics, but it's something to think about for both of our young arms.

 

I suspect Volstad will settle into the high 3s/low 4s, and Miller low/mid 4s this year as their stats become averaged out compared to the league becoming familiar with them.

Yea, Miller really does tend to just get really unlucky. Nobody ever hits the ball hard off of him, but they find holes. It's very painful to watch.

Miller had worst DIPS percentage last year with any pitcher over 100 innings, an atrocious .67%. His DIPS era was 3.96, almost two full runs lower than his actual ERA. He got really unlucky with his BABIP, .327, and the defense no doubt let him down. Basically, the stats paint him as the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last year. There is going to be marked improvement very fast with him. It's only a matter of time.

 

And for the hell of it, with pitchers over 80 innings last year, Volstad was the 8th luckiest with a 1.34 DIPS percentage, and a DIPS era of 3.85. Almost a full run over what he did. Now Volstad gives up a lot of ground balls/doesn't whiff guys at a plus rate, so it is likely he will always be an 'overachiever' using independent defensive metrics, but it's something to think about for both of our young arms.

 

I suspect Volstad will settle into the high 3s/low 4s, and Miller low/mid 4s this year as their stats become averaged out compared to the league becoming familiar with them.

 

I agree Volstad probaly will be in the very high 3s era. His BABIP was a very good .279 showing that balls hit off him were usually not hit to hard and fieldable even with our weak ground ball defense. I meant he was unlucky that many guys got on base in the first place that maybe shouldnt have which led to the higher 1.34 DIPS percentage.

Yea, Miller really does tend to just get really unlucky. Nobody ever hits the ball hard off of him, but they find holes. It's very painful to watch.

Miller had worst DIPS percentage last year with any pitcher over 100 innings, an atrocious .67%. His DIPS era was 3.96, almost two full runs lower than his actual ERA. He got really unlucky with his BABIP, .327, and the defense no doubt let him down. Basically, the stats paint him as the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last year. There is going to be marked improvement very fast with him. It's only a matter of time.

 

And for the hell of it, with pitchers over 80 innings last year, Volstad was the 8th luckiest with a 1.34 DIPS percentage, and a DIPS era of 3.85. Almost a full run over what he did. Now Volstad gives up a lot of ground balls/doesn't whiff guys at a plus rate, so it is likely he will always be an 'overachiever' using independent defensive metrics, but it's something to think about for both of our young arms.

 

I suspect Volstad will settle into the high 3s/low 4s, and Miller low/mid 4s this year as their stats become averaged out compared to the league becoming familiar with them.

 

I agree Volstad probaly will be in the very high 3s era. His BABIP was a very good .279 showing that balls hit off him were usually not hit to hard and fieldable even with our weak ground ball defense. I meant he was unlucky that many guys got on base in the first place that maybe shouldnt have which led to the higher 1.34 DIPS percentage.

Absolutely. These guys (Lowe, Webb, Carmona, Wang, Volstad, etc) are always go to 'overachieve' in DIPS for the very reason you speak of. DIPS is just going to generalize all balls into play as the same odds of becoming a hit compared to the average league rate, but obviously weak groundballs have a better percentage of being outs than fly balls/line drives. It also doesn't help none of those guys (except Webb), routinely throw over 7 K/9s creating even more balls into play.

 

Regardless, point was Miller was really really really unlucky last year so there is a lot of good reasons for optimism. At the same time, it's realistic to think Volstad will come down a little. Johnson and Nolasco were relatively neutral last year and didn't over/under achieve, so this bodes very well for us moving forward.

Yea, Miller really does tend to just get really unlucky. Nobody ever hits the ball hard off of him, but they find holes. It's very painful to watch.

Miller had worst DIPS percentage last year with any pitcher over 100 innings, an atrocious .67%. His DIPS era was 3.96, almost two full runs lower than his actual ERA. He got really unlucky with his BABIP, .327, and the defense no doubt let him down. Basically, the stats paint him as the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last year. There is going to be marked improvement very fast with him. It's only a matter of time.

 

And for the hell of it, with pitchers over 80 innings last year, Volstad was the 8th luckiest with a 1.34 DIPS percentage, and a DIPS era of 3.85. Almost a full run over what he did. Now Volstad gives up a lot of ground balls/doesn't whiff guys at a plus rate, so it is likely he will always be an 'overachiever' using independent defensive metrics, but it's something to think about for both of our young arms.

 

I suspect Volstad will settle into the high 3s/low 4s, and Miller low/mid 4s this year as their stats become averaged out compared to the league becoming familiar with them.

 

I agree Volstad probaly will be in the very high 3s era. His BABIP was a very good .279 showing that balls hit off him were usually not hit to hard and fieldable even with our weak ground ball defense. I meant he was unlucky that many guys got on base in the first place that maybe shouldnt have which led to the higher 1.34 DIPS percentage.

Absolutely. These guys (Lowe, Webb, Carmona, Wang, Volstad, etc) are always go to 'overachieve' in DIPS for the very reason you speak of. DIPS is just going to generalize all balls into play as the same odds of becoming a hit compared to the average league rate, but obviously weak groundballs have a better percentage of being outs than fly balls/line drives. It also doesn't help none of those guys (except Webb), routinely throw over 7 K/9s creating even more balls into play.

 

Regardless, point was Miller was really really really unlucky last year so there is a lot of good reasons for optimism. At the same time, it's realistic to think Volstad will come down a little. Johnson and Nolasco were relatively neutral last year and didn't over/under achieve, so this bodes very well for us moving forward.

Yea, Miller really does tend to just get really unlucky. Nobody ever hits the ball hard off of him, but they find holes. It's very painful to watch.

Miller had worst DIPS percentage last year with any pitcher over 100 innings, an atrocious .67%. His DIPS era was 3.96, almost two full runs lower than his actual ERA. He got really unlucky with his BABIP, .327, and the defense no doubt let him down. Basically, the stats paint him as the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last year. There is going to be marked improvement very fast with him. It's only a matter of time.

 

And for the hell of it, with pitchers over 80 innings last year, Volstad was the 8th luckiest with a 1.34 DIPS percentage, and a DIPS era of 3.85. Almost a full run over what he did. Now Volstad gives up a lot of ground balls/doesn't whiff guys at a plus rate, so it is likely he will always be an 'overachiever' using independent defensive metrics, but it's something to think about for both of our young arms.

 

I suspect Volstad will settle into the high 3s/low 4s, and Miller low/mid 4s this year as their stats become averaged out compared to the league becoming familiar with them.

 

I agree Volstad probaly will be in the very high 3s era. His BABIP was a very good .279 showing that balls hit off him were usually not hit to hard and fieldable even with our weak ground ball defense. I meant he was unlucky that many guys got on base in the first place that maybe shouldnt have which led to the higher 1.34 DIPS percentage.

Absolutely. These guys (Lowe, Webb, Carmona, Wang, Volstad, etc) are always go to 'overachieve' in DIPS for the very reason you speak of. DIPS is just going to generalize all balls into play as the same odds of becoming a hit compared to the average league rate, but obviously weak groundballs have a better percentage of being outs than fly balls/line drives. It also doesn't help none of those guys (except Webb), routinely throw over 7 K/9s creating even more balls into play.

 

Regardless, point was Miller was really really really unlucky last year so there is a lot of good reasons for optimism. At the same time, it's realistic to think Volstad will come down a little. Johnson and Nolasco were relatively neutral last year and didn't over/under achieve, so this bodes very well for us moving forward.

 

Thanks MarlinsLou very interesting stuff. I dont think Miller will have such a high era this year and no way will Volstad have such a low 2.88 era either. Nolasco and Johnson will probaly be high 3s too. This could be a great pitching staff.

Yea, Miller really does tend to just get really unlucky. Nobody ever hits the ball hard off of him, but they find holes. It's very painful to watch.

Miller had worst DIPS percentage last year with any pitcher over 100 innings, an atrocious .67%. His DIPS era was 3.96, almost two full runs lower than his actual ERA. He got really unlucky with his BABIP, .327, and the defense no doubt let him down. Basically, the stats paint him as the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last year. There is going to be marked improvement very fast with him. It's only a matter of time.

 

And for the hell of it, with pitchers over 80 innings last year, Volstad was the 8th luckiest with a 1.34 DIPS percentage, and a DIPS era of 3.85. Almost a full run over what he did. Now Volstad gives up a lot of ground balls/doesn't whiff guys at a plus rate, so it is likely he will always be an 'overachiever' using independent defensive metrics, but it's something to think about for both of our young arms.

 

I suspect Volstad will settle into the high 3s/low 4s, and Miller low/mid 4s this year as their stats become averaged out compared to the league becoming familiar with them.

 

I agree Volstad probaly will be in the very high 3s era. His BABIP was a very good .279 showing that balls hit off him were usually not hit to hard and fieldable even with our weak ground ball defense. I meant he was unlucky that many guys got on base in the first place that maybe shouldnt have which led to the higher 1.34 DIPS percentage.

Absolutely. These guys (Lowe, Webb, Carmona, Wang, Volstad, etc) are always go to 'overachieve' in DIPS for the very reason you speak of. DIPS is just going to generalize all balls into play as the same odds of becoming a hit compared to the average league rate, but obviously weak groundballs have a better percentage of being outs than fly balls/line drives. It also doesn't help none of those guys (except Webb), routinely throw over 7 K/9s creating even more balls into play.

 

Regardless, point was Miller was really really really unlucky last year so there is a lot of good reasons for optimism. At the same time, it's realistic to think Volstad will come down a little. Johnson and Nolasco were relatively neutral last year and didn't over/under achieve, so this bodes very well for us moving forward.

 

Thanks MarlinsLou very interesting stuff. I dont think Miller will have such a high era this year and no way will Volstad have such a low 2.88 era either. Nolasco and Johnson will probaly be high 3s too. This could be a great pitching staff.

 

I agree on Volstad, but Johnson is similar to Volstad in he gets a lot of ground ball outs, except he also has overpowering strikeout stuff, too. He's going to have a big year in '09 IMO, with a low 3's ERA. Nolasco also has fantastic stuff and pinpoint control. I think he should be in the low-mid 3's as well.