Most any fan of the Marlins will say that Dan Uggla has been disappointing this year. They'll point to the .229 average as proof. A closer look at the numbers will show this to be true. Both OBP and Slg are down from his career year of 2008 meaning that his OPS is down .90 points! A look at his wOBA,(in my opinion) the most important offensive metric, and we'll see a drop from an all-star caliber .372 figure to a slightly above average .335 which ranks 5th on the team. The question is why has this happened?

 

Incredibly and as a cause for hope Uggla is showing the most patience and making the best contact of his career. He's posting the best walk rate of his career up to 13.5% and his K rate is down 7% from last year from 32.2% to 25.2%. Taking at his plate discipline will show a reduced swing % on pitches outside the strike zone an increase in contact % both outside the zone and within the strike zone. The numbers outside the zone over his four year career have been .435, .413, .435, and this year .527. Within the strike zone the increase in contact rate is not as impressive but the 84.7% is still the highest of his career.

 

So the problem isn't discipline or contact rates. At the beginning of the season most people were saying that Uggla had been hitting the ball well but was getting unlucky. The numbers actually show this to be true. His LD% is right in line with every year except his rookie year at 15.5% and while last year Uggla had a high BABIP of .323 this year it's down to way below the league average at .256. While this explains some of the deficiencies it does not account for all of the drop in production. Despite the average the major problem with Uggs this year has been a drop in power. While his OBP is down from last year, the increased walk rate means it is in line with his rookie year and higher than 2007. On the other hand slugging and ISO are both down to career lows with the sluggging particularly down from his 2nd worst year. The main reason for this is his HR/FB rate. Last year Uggla had career high of 18.3% which was significantly higher than the 13% he had posted the first two years. This year that rate has regressed back down to 13.3% and is probably a major culprit in the drop in production.

 

Conclusion

Uggla is actually a better hitter this year. If he can have some better luck and maintain his other peripherals we will see a much better Uggla over the last 63 games. While his HR/FB and BABIP from last year will probably never be duplicated, his better plate discipline and contact rates may allow him to achieve the production levels of last year.

interesting analysis.

 

does anyone think uggla's off year this year increases the likelihood (if any) that the fish sign him to a long term type deal considering his price would drop dramatically unless he has a miraculous rest of the season??

interesting analysis.

 

does anyone think uggla's off year this year increases the likelihood (if any) that the fish sign him to a long term type deal considering his price would drop dramatically unless he has a miraculous rest of the season??

 

 

I'm pretty sure there isn't a member here who doesn't believe with much certainty that Uggla will be traded.

There could be something mechanically wrong with his swing stifling his power, if his plate discipline and contact numbers are basically the same.

good stuff, I've been meaning to do something like this

 

His power drop should have been expected because as you note the HR/FB

 

His % of hits that goes for 2b/3b this year is just 20.3%, was 27.5% last year and 33.5% in '07, but was 19.2% in his rook year. 25.6% in his career.

 

That and his babip are really the only things that stick out, and that might not be something that raises.

 

A quick evening out of his BABIP would give him 10 hits, so 2 would be doubles and 8 would be singles. We'd then be looking at a .258/.361/.461/.822...basically a replica of his .820 career OPS with a bit more obp and a bit less slg