Posted January 7, 201015 yr I am not sure if this topic has ever been discussed but after looking through Bonifacio's splits he really has a lot of upside as a hitter (if he can ever put it together). His splits in 08 and 09 are almost the complete opposite of another. This is 2008 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHP as LH 44 141 126 34 5 3 0 11 7 3 13 30 .270 .333 .357 .690 45 1 0 0 2 0 2 .347 118 79 vs LHP as RH 19 45 43 7 1 2 0 3 0 1 1 16 .163 .178 .279 .457 12 1 0 0 1 0 1 .250 43 16 This is 2009 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHP as LH 108 355 316 69 9 3 1 20 0 0 28 64 .218 .284 .275 .559 87 5 2 6 3 0 6 .268 83 46 vs LHP as RH 64 152 143 45 1 3 0 7 0 0 6 31 .315 .340 .364 .704 52 0 0 2 1 0 2 .398 130 84 There is definitely an argument here for sample size but it still seems as if this is just a kid with a lot of talent still trying to figure things out. Thoughts...
January 7, 201015 yr Damn it, I thought he Pokey reese out of here. :lol I was actually thinking (hoping) the same thing
January 7, 201015 yr There is definitely an argument here for sample size but it still seems as if this is just a kid with a lot of talent still trying to figure things out. Thoughts... See, this isn't the problem. What is his peak if he comes into his own offensively? An average baseball player. This is him like, hitting a .725 OPS, with 50+ SB at a 75% clip, and a +15 or more defender. That's maybe slightly above average. And this is a huge best case scenario here. What is a bad Chris Coghlan that falls apart offensively and drops 100 OPS points and plays slightly below average defense? An average baseball player. So your best case scenario with Bonifacio is exactly what you have if Chris Coghlan falls apart. So who really cares what Bonifacio can or can't be. He should be the backup plan if Coghlan gets injured, and be the do-everything guy on our bench.
January 7, 201015 yr I am not sure if this topic has ever been discussed but after looking through Bonifacio's splits he really has a lot of upside as a hitter (if he can ever put it together). His splits in 08 and 09 are almost the complete opposite of another. This is 2008 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHP as LH 44 141 126 34 5 3 0 11 7 3 13 30 .270 .333 .357 .690 45 1 0 0 2 0 2 .347 118 79 vs LHP as RH 19 45 43 7 1 2 0 3 0 1 1 16 .163 .178 .279 .457 12 1 0 0 1 0 1 .250 43 16 This is 2009 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHP as LH 108 355 316 69 9 3 1 20 0 0 28 64 .218 .284 .275 .559 87 5 2 6 3 0 6 .268 83 46 vs LHP as RH 64 152 143 45 1 3 0 7 0 0 6 31 .315 .340 .364 .704 52 0 0 2 1 0 2 .398 130 84 There is definitely an argument here for sample size but it still seems as if this is just a kid with a lot of talent still trying to figure things out. Thoughts... I make a big arguement for sample size in 2009. His BABIP against LHP was a massive .398, the chances of him repeating that are basically nill. Meanwhile, his BB/K (Which is basically our best method to see how he actually sees the ball) was a horrible 0.19 compared to a good 0.44 against RHP. Also, throughout his entire pro career, he has been a lot better against RHP than he has against LHP. I made a post at the begining of last year showing the differences, and I remember there was a report as well that the Marlins FO was thinking of platooning him at third with Helms facing LHP right before the season started. His minor league OPS against RHP is over 100 points higher than his OPS against LHP, and his minor league BB/K against LHP is just 0.36 compared to 0.51 against RHP. So, in my opinion, going forward he'll be better against RHP than LHP, with him being an upper .600 OPS against RHP (possibly breaking .700) and being borderline 600ish against LHP.
January 7, 201015 yr i remember seeing bonifacio in ST and i can tell you that he was not the same hitter....he drove the ball with more authority and on a line so I really dont know what happened to him during the season. He has talent but im not sure if he is the answer as we know he wont have much power. If he totally exceeds expectations i see him maybe a little below luis castillo caliber if not the same. but the again their lefty swings are totally different with castillo much more controlled. It even looks like boni uses a bat too big for him.
January 7, 201015 yr Spring training is a mere string of exhibition games; the performances there mean very little if nothing at all. Bonifacio was terrible last year after a good first couple weeks in April. He also got hot at some point in June if I remember correctly. I don't know what we can learn from looking at his splits; he has what amounts to only 1 full season of major league plate appearances, all of which came while being very young relative to his competition. Next year will be his make or break year; hopefully he gets the opportunity to sink or swim so that we can move on one way or the other.
January 7, 201015 yr Spring training is a mere string of exhibition games; the performances there mean very little if nothing at all. Bonifacio was terrible last year after a good first couple weeks in April. He also got hot at some point in June if I remember correctly. I don't know what we can learn from looking at his splits; he has what amounts to only 1 full season of major league plate appearances, all of which came while being very young relative to his competition. Next year will be his make or break year; hopefully he gets the opportunity to sink or swim so that we can move on one way or the other. Bonifacio didnt have a good first few weeks. He had a good 5 games. For the remaining 16 games that month he hit .159/.205/.174. He also isnt "young" as you make him out to be. He was 24 years old. Playing in his 6th season of pro ball(not counting instructional leagues before coming to the US after he signed a pro contract at age 16).
January 8, 201015 yr He's 24, the rest of the league is 28 on average. He's also on the upward swing of the age curve and still has a couple of yrs to go before the typical age players start to peak. Last year was his first full major league season. That's young. As for his April split, I remember his line looking pretty good for the first few weeks of the season. I never broke it down as granularly as you did, thanks for the heads up.
January 8, 201015 yr He's 24, the rest of the league is 28 on average. He's also on the upward swing of the age curve and still has a couple of yrs to go before the typical age players start to peak. Last year was his first full major league season. That's young. As for his April split, I remember his line looking pretty good for the first few weeks of the season. I never broke it down as granularly as you did, thanks for the heads up. He had like 21 total bases in the first week. He was atrocious for pretty much the rest of the season. Seriously, that first week propped up his season a lot. Unfortunately, my computer is being dumb so I can't look it up. But I remember it having like a 30 or 40 point impact on his OPS.
January 8, 201015 yr Yup. 21 bases in 5 games through April 11th. He was still OPSing .829 on April 18th. By May 6th he was down to .605 and spent essentially 5 months within about 30 points either side of that, ending at .611. 5 really good games followed by 122 mostly mediocre games, about 4 of which were notable.
January 8, 201015 yr He's projected to bat .270/.326/.347 next season (a projection system is a better gauge of a player's current talent level). But projection systems don't account for a player's tools (some players have better tools than productivity and just need experience to figure it out). Projection systems are also more volatile with players either on the upward swing or downward slope of the age curve. Given that Uggla figures to be around come opening day, it doesn't really matter. As long as Uggla's here, Bonifacio will be mitigated to a utility role.
January 8, 201015 yr So he's projected to stink. Chone has him as a .4 WAR player. Woohoo! CHONE sucks, they all do.
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