November 18, 200322 yr PRO Marlins win by default DAN LE BATARD dlebatard@herald.com Ivan Rodriguez and the Marlins will remain together in a marriage of convenience. Not because of any lingering championship sentiment. Not because the Marlins will succumb to public-relations pressure. Not because of hometown discounts or Pudge's desire to stay near his opulent home in Miami Beach. Two words for you: Javy Lopez. Two more words for you: Shrunken marketplace. If you are a big-market team desperate for more offense from a quick-fix catcher, would you be going after the guy who hit .328 with 43 homers and 109 RBI (Lopez) or the one who hit .297 with 16 homers and 85 RBI (Pudge)? Teams are wary of throwing large, multiyear contracts at catchers over 30, period. Throughout history, the abrupt decline at that body-crippling position from one year to the next after 30 is staggering (for a closest-to-home example, see Charles Johnson), so there is no way on this planet that Pudge will be getting the five-year, $50 million contract his evil and delusional agent is seeking. The only other place in sports you'll find such a terrible deterioration of skill after age 30 is Miller's column space. There are very good reasons the Marlins were the one and only team willing to give Rodriguez even as much as $10 million for last season, and 16 homers, 85 RBI and even a magical postseason run don't change those reasons. There are an awful lot of miles on Rodriguez's 31-year-old body, which has been catching in terrible heat for more than a decade, and it is unwise to guarantee so much money in a place where the talent over 30 so often is extinguished from one year to the next. The New York teams with the budget to spend crazy both have catchers (Jorge Posada, Mike Piazza), and that means that any big-budget team with dire catching needs (St. Louis? Chicago?) will look at the 33-year-old Lopez, coming off the best season of his life with the Braves, before settling on Pudge. The cheaper teams will look at Rodriguez's asking price and settle instead on the extraterrestrial likes of the Giants' Benito Santiago, who has quietly remained intact at that brutal position even though he is 476 years old. That means Pudge is going to have to come a lot closer to Florida's two-year, $14 million offer than he is to his five-year, $50 million asking price. The compromise: Maybe the Marlins, feeling generous, will climb up to a third year and make the entire contract $20 million. And then Rodriguez will do what catchers do -- he'll return to home. CON Pudge's price is too high JEFF MILLER jamiller@herald.com Ivan Rodriguez already is costing the Marlins $3 million next season, and they haven't even re-signed him yet. In part because of this, the team in fact won't be able to re-sign him. The only way the Marlins were able to afford Rodriguez to begin with was to defer a large chunk of his one-year salary of close to $10 million. That deferment explains the $3 million he has coming in 2004. There will be no such creative negotiation this time, especially with Rodriguez now represented by one Scott Boras, who as an agent is only as powerful and dangerous as one OF #25. OK, maybe two OF #25. There's no way this math works. Not with the Marlins having only two players signed for next season; not with so many others eligible for arbitration, a system that explodes salaries even when the player loses his case; and not with a payroll that at best will be bumped up no more than $10 million total. That increase alone would cover the cost of Rodriguez, but the problem is Major League Baseball frowns on teams that attempt to start seasons with only eight players. A club like the Marlins simply can't have one player making as much as Rodriguez figures to make next season. They barely squeezed him onto a $53 million payroll this year. If that number moves up to, say, $63 million -- and that's being generous -- there's no chance of fitting a fat contract in with all the other increases that must be paid. If you don't like this argument, if you think the Marlins need to retain Rodriguez regardless of the finances, fine. But, in exchange, be prepared to say goodbye to Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo and Derrek Lee, just to get started. Keeping Rodriguez would cost the Marlins a lot more than just salary. It also would cost them much of their core. Listen, you lock up Pudge if you could, if it were that easy. The Marlins would love to secure his services for another three seasons, no doubt. The way he played for this team, particularly his clutch hitting and October contributions, he clearly has plenty left. But these numbers don't crunch any better than tomato soup does. The only chance the Marlins have of re-signing Rodriguez is if there's no market for him, none at all. (And given the fact the only teams mentioned as spending money these days are the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, you never know.) With Boras, however, markets seem to establish themselves, whether they actually exist or not. Rodriguez will be paid well next season. And the Marlins will help by chipping in $3 million -- for him to catch for someone else.
November 18, 200322 yr I hate Pro/Con. These a**holes write about the Dolphins all summer but the Marlins all fall?
November 18, 200322 yr WTF Miller doesnt provide any facts to support his claim that we cant afford him. Just another poorly written articl :thumbdown e by the Miami Herald. (sigh)
November 18, 200322 yr Truthfully, I dont care. If Pudge comes back, great. If not, great - we have Castro waiting in the wings and I think he has more power than Pudge. He just has to clear charges first... But what do you expect from the Herald? It is pure crap...
November 18, 200322 yr I'm hoping we don't re-sign Pudge/Enc so we can keep everyone else around and maybe ADD another piece.
November 18, 200322 yr I agree Sham, and that piece would be Vlad Guerrero. It could happen, the more I try to dismiss it, the more I keep coming back to it. I think something is going to happen...
November 18, 200322 yr One has to look at this for what it is, another propaganda opportunity by the Herald to diminish the value of the Marlins in the eyes of sports fans with the ultimate goal undoing a deal for a new stadium. The Herald is nothing if not predictable. As long as Richard Bush is running the sports department we can expect more of the same.
November 18, 200322 yr I'll agree. Miller did an abysmal job of making an argument there. What a sub-par piece of writing on his part. To tell you the truth, I'm glad the Herald did their pro/con on this issue. It sounds like both sides are taking shots at Pudge's value, which is a very good thing for the local media to do. LeBatard, who chose to defend keeping Pudge, argued that we should keep him because he won't be making much money anyways (as opposed to arguing that he is an irreplaceable part of our team). Perhaps Pudge or Boras will read it? If nothing else, it's a good thing that the media makes the case against Pudge's value because it will, at the very least, affect public impression. You want the public to understand why Pudge is not worth it if he demands more than $7M. If Pudge bolts for the big bucks, hopefully people will see him as a greedy prostitute, instead of seeing Loria as a stingy firesaler. There's no question that the biggest reason for signing Pudge at a high price is for PR purposes. We don't want people to think that the Marlins have no chance next year. If the newfound fans don't perceive there to be another firesale, I think we can forget about the "signing Pudge for PR" argument. Instead, we can focus on putting together the best team for next year.
November 18, 200322 yr people, take this for what it is, a debate. like these debates we've been having hear the message board. you don't necessarily have to agree with topic assigned to you, it's just all done in good fun. jesus, relax a little bit, don't be so defensive.
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