November 28, 200322 yr by Jerry Crasnick-espn insider Every free-agent contract is a risk. It's simply a question of degree. The Seattle Mariners signed outfielder Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $13.25 million contract last week. If Ibanez builds on the progress he showed in Kansas City, he'll be worth the investment. If he reverts to the player who failed to cut it with Seattle from 1996-2000, he won't. But it's not a killer either way. "What is he, a $3 million player instead of a $4 million player?" said an American League general manager. "Any contract in that range is never going to prohibit you from building a team. A turkey is going to be $8-10 million a year or more. This one can't be that bad of a deal." If Vladimir Guerrero signs for six years and $80 million and turns into Ken Griffey Jr., that's a nightmare. If Kelvim Escobar turns out to be a bundle of terminally unfulfilled potential, that's $18.75 million the Angels will regret spending. If Fernando Vina is done because he's almost 35 and has hamstring problems, some team might be out $1-2 million. That's a mistake you swallow and move on. General managers are paid to distill reality from hype and speculation, and no player is immune from scrutiny. So they'll spend the next few weeks asking themselves: Is Kevin Millwood a No. 3 starter in search of a No. 1 contract? What are the odds Tom Gordon won't blow out his elbow again, or Rondell White can give a team 500 at-bats? Will Mike Cameron be a better offensive player away from Safeco Field? And most important, which agent is representing Luis Castillo this week? Sooner or later, teams will exhaust their trade possibilities and start picking off free agents. Before that process takes place, here are four categories that might require some extra attention. Welcome to Baseball Insider's "Buyer Beware" segment. High-mileage catchers SABR-metrician Chuck Rosciam has written an Encyclopedia of Baseball Catchers. He has a database with offensive and defensive numbers for every catcher since 1871. If there's an authority on the subject, he's it. Rosciam says the "golden years" for catchers are years 5 through 8, when their performance peaks. Then catchers typically endure a five-year offensive and defensive slump. At year 14, the numbers start looking good again. "The latter is primarily because the 'few' who make it that far are better than the above-average catcher (who has normally retired around year 15)," Rosciam writes. Rodriguez, a future Hall of Famer, entered this offseason on a high. He hit .297 with 90 runs scored in 144 games, did a wonderful job handling Florida's young staff, and dominated in the postseason. After playing for the Marlins as a one-year, $10 million rental, he's justified in looking for something more lucrative. Lopez is, too. This year he reversed a steep offensive decline during which his OPS (combined on-base and slugging percentage) dropped from .908 in 1999 to .671 in 2002. He rebounded for an impressive 1.065 OPS and hit 42 home runs to break Todd Hundley's single-season record for a catcher. So what's the problem? For starters, Lopez has appeared in 1,106 career games behind the plate, while Rodriguez has played in a whopping 1,564. Catchers, we all know, endure more of a physical beating than players at any other position. There's a cumulative effect to all the squatting, collisions and foul tips. Maybe modern catchers can postpone the aging process with better training methods and nutrition (or routine visits to the local supplement store). But attrition is an occupational hazard. So teams naturally wonder which Javy Lopez they're getting -- the guy who looked washed up at age 31 or bursting with energy at 32? And if it's true that Lopez doesn't want to be a full-time catcher anymore, how valuable will he be as a DH/catcher/first baseman? Rosciam thinks more than a two-year contract for Lopez or a four-year deal for Rodriguez will be a "crapshoot." The way clubs are talking, Lopez might have to settle for one or two years, while Rodriguez will be lucky to get three. According to a report in the Palm Beach Post, Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras, is looking for five years and $50 million. The ultimate question is, how much more is an aging Pudge worth than your garden-variety catcher? "You can put some tarnish on a star, but he's still a star," Rosciam said. "Whatever Pudge Rodriguez has left is still much better than the other dregs out there." Closers Keith Foulke has been a monument to stamina and consistency over the past five seasons, averaging 69 appearances and 88 innings a year for the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics. He's spent a total of one month on the disabled list in his big-league career, when he needed surgery to remove a bone spur from his right shoulder. Foulke looks like as close to a sure thing as you can get. But some executives are naturally wary of closers, because there are so many unknowns in their profiles. "Evaluating bullpen guys is the hardest thing to do," said an American League executive. "With starters, you know a guy will throw one side session between starts. You can look and see how many times he's pitched on four days rest vs. short rest. But there are things you can't measure with relievers. How many times was a guy up in the bullpen? He might have had two days off, but maybe he warmed up and got hot three times in both those games. That takes a toll." Lots of closers have paid the price in recent years. The list includes Robb Nen, Rod Beck, Matt Mantei, Tom Gordon, Trevor Hoffman and a post-40 John Franco. And we can't forget Randy Myers, the patron saint of bad reliever contracts. Oakland GM Billy Beane's "pump and dump" strategy was outlined clearly in "Moneyball." Beane makes a habit of "churning" closers -- letting them pump up their value with an overrated statistic, the save, then trading them or allowing them to leave through free agency and stockpiling draft picks in return. Even for executives who place great stock in the value of closers, the unknowns of abuse and overuse make judging a closer a challenge and a risk. That applies even to durable commodities such as Foulke and Eddie Guardado, whose nickname, "Everyday Eddie," could be a good or bad thing, depending on your perspective. Bad body starters Thanks to Chan Ho Park, Denny Neagle, Darren Dreifort, Mike Hampton and others, GMs are petrified to go too long or spend too much on starting pitching. A pitcher's caloric intake is just one more element in the equation. Bartolo Colon is generally described by executives as a "premium guy." You can pencil him in for 200 innings, double-figure victories and a dominant presence every fifth day. While Colon comes by his thick frame naturally, some executives are dubious about signing him to more than a two-year deal. "As good as his arm and stuff are, I think you have to keep dangling that carrot in front of him," said a National League front office man. As opposed to, say, a box of Chicken McNuggets. Teams are also concerned with Colon's elbow, even though he hasn't been on the DL with elbow problems since 1996. "You can see the effort in his delivery and the torque placed upon the arm because of how hard he throws," said an AL assistant GM. "If he goes down, it's not going to be just a small tweak." Sidney Ponson is the poor man's Bartolo Colon. He's 27 years old and coming off a 17-win season for Baltimore and San Francisco. He's good enough that Brian Sabean, one of baseball's most astute general managers, traded three pitchers to acquire him from the Orioles for the stretch run. The bad news: Ponson has a career record of 58-65 and a body like a plumbing supply salesman. While he, too, can attribute his stocky frame to genetics, teams wonder if a multiyear deal might give him a license to balloon. "He's had half-a-good year," said a National League coach, "and it's not like he's only pitched for a couple of years. Maybe you could say he's coming into his own and take a chance. But you wonder if he's as dedicated as he needs to be." Attitude guys Jose Guillen appears to be the perfect fit for a team that wants a reasonably-priced outfielder with offensive upside. He's always had a cannon arm and offensive skills. Last year, for the first time, he showed signs of living up to his potential, hitting .311 with 31 homers and a .359 on-base percentage for Cincinnati and Oakland. But Guillen can't shake a reputation as immature, selfish and lost in his own little world. One AL front-office man calls him a "Grade A knucklehead." A coach who's worked with Guillen charitably describes him as "high maintenance." "He's a guy you need to talk to every day, whether it's good, bad or indifferent," the coach said. "If you don't, you're going to find a reason to talk to him at some point." Last year Carl Everett quietly hit 28 home runs and drove in 92 runs for Texas and the White Sox. He didn't bump an umpire or make a peep. Was it because he's a changed man at 32, or because he knew he'd be a free agent this winter? Gary Sheffield, once perceived as a problem child in Milwaukee and a whiner in Los Angeles, was the quintessential solid citizen in Atlanta. That's part of the reason the Braves want him to return. "A lot of it depends on the environment," said a National League executive. "I don't know if those guys ever change. But you can put certain demands on them and place them in a certain atmosphere, and they'll be more productive."
November 28, 200322 yr Wonderful rendition of an obvious truth. Really lays it out there in easy to understand sentences and the author is willing to give you his conclusions rather than make you guess. I wish I read more pieces like this. I think we all (well, not all because's theres some who just want him gone) would like to see Pudge back if it was a deal we can afford and he can live with. Redmond is a free agent, and another guy, like Mordecai, who has to take a pay cut to remain with the team in order to keep payroll under $60 mil. I believe he'll sign somewhere else regardless whether Pudge is here or not. He will undoubtably make more elsewhere, even as a #2 catcher. So next year, barring jail time or absent a trade, it's Castro and Treanor. This article was not good for Pudge or Boras, for different reasons. It does put pressure on Pudge's camp to lessen their expectations which is good for us and reasonable at the same time. If I were Admin B. I'd be sending Crasnick a box of montechristo's for this one. This story moves us closer to re-signing Pudge. I like that.
November 28, 200322 yr Nice piece, thank you for posting Ramp I want to see Pudge back, but I don't want to see us being killed with a monster contract. I belive the most we should offer is 2 years, and only 3 as the 3 year as an option. And most important, which agent is representing Luis Castillo this week? This is a good one. ..
November 28, 200322 yr Attitude guys Jose Guillen appears to be the perfect fit for a team that wants a reasonably-priced outfielder with offensive upside. He's always had a cannon arm and offensive skills. Last year, for the first time, he showed signs of living up to his potential, hitting .311 with 31 homers and a .359 on-base percentage for Cincinnati and Oakland. But Guillen can't shake a reputation as immature, selfish and lost in his own little world. One AL front-office man calls him a "Grade A knucklehead." A coach who's worked with Guillen charitably describes him as "high maintenance." "He's a guy you need to talk to every day, whether it's good, bad or indifferent," the coach said. "If you don't, you're going to find a reason to talk to him at some point." This is the guy alot of people on this board have been clamoring to get?
November 28, 200322 yr Attitude guys Jose Guillen appears to be the perfect fit for a team that wants a reasonably-priced outfielder with offensive upside. He's always had a cannon arm and offensive skills. Last year, for the first time, he showed signs of living up to his potential, hitting .311 with 31 homers and a .359 on-base percentage for Cincinnati and Oakland. But Guillen can't shake a reputation as immature, selfish and lost in his own little world. One AL front-office man calls him a "Grade A knucklehead." A coach who's worked with Guillen charitably describes him as "high maintenance." "He's a guy you need to talk to every day, whether it's good, bad or indifferent," the coach said. "If you don't, you're going to find a reason to talk to him at some point." This is the guy alot of people on this board have been clamoring to get? damn I don't want someone on the marlins who would shake up the team chemistry and create controversy :thumbdown
November 28, 200322 yr if only people would be aware of what a player does aside from the stat sheet. *sigh*
November 29, 200322 yr if only people would be aware of what a player does aside from the stat sheet. *sigh* yeah, geez...
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.