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Pitching staff notes by Barry Jackson. Sports Buzz - Miami Herald


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SUNDAY BUZZ COLUMN

Marlins pitching chatter:

### With Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Anibal Sanchez gone, here’s what’s left of a starting rotation that reported to spring training last week:

An ace (Ricky Nolasco) who allowed the third-most hits and fourth-most runs in the National League in 2012; a No. 3 starter (Henderson Alvarez, via Toronto) who relinquished the second-most hits and suffered the AL’s fourth-most losses; and a No. 4 starter (Nate Eovaldi) who suffered the NL’s fifth-most losses. In fact, only one projected starter (Jacob Turner) allowed a batting average below .275.

You want the glass-half-full view instead? Here it is: Jose Fernandez, MLB.com’s No. 7 prospect, could arrive in Miami by July after dominating A-ball last year (14-1, 1.75 ERA, 158 strikeouts, 89 hits in 134 innings).

Jack McKeon said Fernandez will be a No. 1 starter and Admin Beinfest said: “You won’t find better power [pitching] in the minors than Fernandez. I can’t remember any guy in our system� who had stats as dominating.

More glass-half-full: The Marlins should snag a decent prospect or two by trading Nolasco this summer.… Some scouts believe Eovaldi and Alvarez have sharp enough stuff to become solid starters…. The Marlins have three highly-regarded lefties on the way: Justin Nicolino (72nd among all prospects by MLB.com), Andrew Heaney (81st) and Adam Conley.

And there’s this: Turner has the Marlins excited because of his excellent work after the Detroit trade. Ignore the 1-4 record. He had a sterling ERA (3.38) and batting average against (.208; .189 vs. lefties).

“He still needs polishing, but we really like him,� said a general manager from another NL team. “He can be a middle of the rotation starter, maybe better.�

### Former manager Ozzie Guillen believed Eovaldi had more electric stuff than Turner, but the results didn’t show it. Eovaldi allowed 97 base-runners in 63 innings in 12 Marlins starts (3-7, 4.43 ERA) after going 1-6 for the Dodgers. Batters hit .284 against him, lefties .333.

"I don’t love his arm action; it seems like a strain for him to throw,� the opposing GM said. “Maybe he’s a third or fourth starter.�

But Eovaldi said he corrected a mechanical issue late last season, and the Marlins believe he’s ready to blossom. “You know how people say God came down and blessed you with a lightning bolt as an arm?� catcher Rob Brantly said. “You can say that about Eovaldi.�

### The Marlins believe Alvarez also is better than his 2012 work in Toronto suggests (9-14, 4.85). But this is alarming: He allowed an absurd 270 base-runners in 187 innings -- including 29 homers, a .290 average, and .342 against cleanup hitters.

So why do the Marlins like him? “He has explosive stuff at times and a complete repertoire,� Beinfest said. “He just needs to throw strikes.�

### The Marlins expect more from Nolasco than he provided last year (12-13, 4.48) -- both to stabilize the staff and boost his value, with Nolasco expecting to be traded by July. He again allowed too many base-runners (261 in 191 innings), including 9 hits in 14 at-bats with the bases loaded.

### Wade LeBlanc (2-5, 3.76 ERA) is the favorite for the fifth spot, but don’t rule out Brad Hand (11-7, 4.00 at Triple A), Alex Sanabia (6-7, 3.93 at Triple A) or non-roster invitees John Maine (41-36 lifetime, but out of the majors since 2011), Kevin Slowey (39-29) and Mitch Talbot (12-19).

### The Marlins are comfortable with Steve Cishek closing after last season, when he had 15 saves and allowed a .183 average with runners in scoring position. But bullpen depth beyond Cishek is worrisome.

The Marlins believe 6-11 Jon Rauch will be better as a set-up man than closer. His career saves-to-blown-saves ratio (62 to 31) is abysmal, but batters hit .209 off him with the Mets last year. “His stuff is still good and he knows the division well,� Beinfest said…

The Marlins once thought Ryan Webb and Mike Dunn might be future closers. Forget that. Webb was battered -- .295 average against (up 40 points from 2011) and .338 at Marlins Park. Opponents’ batting averages against Dunn has risen annually - .200 to .211 to .224 to .283, and control remains an issue at times. “Their pure stuff is so good, but it’s time for them to do it,� Beinfest said.

### The Marlins hope Chad Qualls (51 career saves) has something left at 34, and keep an eye on hard-throwing right-handers Jose Ceda, Evan Reed and A.J. Ramos (36 hits, 89 strikeouts in 68 innings at Double A). Marlins players rave about Ramos’ stuff.

### Bottom line: “If our pitching produces the way we think it can, we’re going to be OK,� Beinfest said. But at least two and maybe four members of the likely 2015 rotation will begin the year in the minors.

 

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2013/02/the-skinny-on-marlins-pitching-staff-um-football-hoops-heat-dolphins-chatter.html#storylink=cpy

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Losses and batting average against are basically bad statistics to evaluate pitchers.

 

Batting average against has some limitations, but you seem to be saying it is meaningless. Why is that?

It's not meaningless. It's just a stat that shouldn't be used without context.

If the defense behind you is full of players with limited range, the pitcher is going to be allowing hits that would probably be outs if he pitched for a better defensive team.

 

Pitching stats need more context than Jackson provides in the article.

 

Even the HR's...sure, Alvarez allows a lot of HR's, but it's worth noting that there's a good chance he'll now allow less because he'll be pitching in a different, more massive ballpark, as well as in a different, easier league.

 

I'm not suggesting these guys are very good pitchers or anything, but the stats should provide more context.

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Losses and batting average against are basically bad statistics to evaluate pitchers.

 

Batting average against has some limitations, but you seem to be saying it is meaningless. Why is that?

It's not meaningless. It's just a stat that shouldn't be used without context.

If the defense behind you is full of players with limited range, the pitcher is going to be allowing hits that would probably be outs if he pitched for a better defensive team.

 

Pitching stats need more context than Jackson provides in the article.

 

Even the HR's...sure, Alvarez allows a lot of HR's, but it's worth noting that there's a good chance he'll now allow less because he'll be pitching in a different, more massive ballpark, as well as in a different, easier league.

 

I'm not suggesting these guys are very good pitchers or anything, but the stats should provide more context.

 

I'm with you and the good Dr. B. all the way. I wasn't actually talking about Jackson's use of it. I just thought you were saying batting average against in general has no value. I'm not as dedicated to stats as many of you, but it does suggest something about a pitcher when considered with other stats or even by itself over a long enough number of years. As opposed to wins/losses which is of much more questionable value.

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Losses and batting average against are basically bad statistics to evaluate pitchers.

 

Batting average against has some limitations, but you seem to be saying it is meaningless. Why is that?

It's not meaningless. It's just a stat that shouldn't be used without context.

If the defense behind you is full of players with limited range, the pitcher is going to be allowing hits that would probably be outs if he pitched for a better defensive team.

 

Pitching stats need more context than Jackson provides in the article.

 

Even the HR's...sure, Alvarez allows a lot of HR's, but it's worth noting that there's a good chance he'll now allow less because he'll be pitching in a different, more massive ballpark, as well as in a different, easier league.

 

I'm not suggesting these guys are very good pitchers or anything, but the stats should provide more context.

 

So I'm guessing you like FIP?

 

Nolasco: 3.87

Turner: 4.79

Alvarez: 5.18

Eovaldi: 4.13

 

I totally agree with you that losses and BAA are bad to judge a pitcher on but unless the adjustments Eovaldi were positively drastic, we will struggle this year at least until Fernandez gets here.

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