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Last year's offense with this year's


jonnylons

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There is a mixed sentiment in the aquarium these days about the offense. Some say we are worse than last year, some say we are better. Well, let's take a look:

 

2003

 

Juan Pierre .305 1HR 45RBI 65SB

Luis Castillo .314 6HR 39RBI 21SB

Fudge Rodriguez .297 16HR 85RBI

Mike Lowell .276 32HR 105RBI

Derek Lee .271 31HR 92RBI

Juan Encarnacion .270 19HR 94RBI

Todd Hollandsworth* .262 15HR 82RBI

Alex Gonzalez .256 18HR 77RBI

P

 

*includes Miguel Cabrera's numbers - .267 12 60RBI

 

2004 Projections (mine)

 

Juan Pierre .292 0HR 35RBI 63SB

Luis Castillo .301 3HR 46RBI 20SB

Miguel Cabrera .275 20HR 83RBI

Mike Lowell .285 28HR 100RBI

Jeff Conine .283 20HR 85RBI

Hee-Seop Choi .261 18HR 67RBI

Ramon Castro .267 19HR 72RBI

Alex Gonzalez .260 15HR 70RBI

P

 

These projections are modest and in some cases should be easily met. In fact, none are really career best expectations, except for Cabs who hasnt really started his career yet. Lets look at totals:

 

2003 2004

.281AVG .278AVG*

138HR 123HR

619RBI 558RBI

 

These are my predictions, first off, and I purposely figured them under their usual productions in order to come up with a modest figure. That said, the production level is not all that far off. THere is a sligt drop in AVG, 15 less HRs and 61 less RBI. But if our pitching comes through with an improved bullpen and we can fall back on our playoff experience, I think we can reasonably expect 85-90+ wins and a chance at the playoffs.

 

*(not very scientific, just added up the AVGs and found the average of those figures)

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I agree, good analysis. It doesnt assume career years for Choi, Cabs and Castro.

 

That said, I still think it is a dropoff that would hurt us. Last year we scored 751 runs. Assuming a dropoff of 40 runs, that would put us around 5th worst in the National League in runs. Only two teams were able to compete with around that many runs: The Dbacks and Dodgers. Discount the chance that the pitching staff pitches as well as the Dodgers since they were amazing last year. The Dbacks allowed seven fewer runs than us last year, which isnt a stretch to ask our pitching staff to do. But that combo got them 84 wins(85 expected). Id say we would have to be one of the best pitching teams out there to get to the playoffs.

 

 

 

But I do agree on this point. I dont know who we could sign that would drastically improve our run production. I mean we would effectivley have to replace Pudge and Lee and I dont know if we could sign anyone that could do that. So thats why IMO we should sign someone in case something happens to diminuish even the predicted numbers you have there. That way we dont miss a beat. We really cant afford to lose any offense.

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Assuming a dropoff of 40 runs...

With most likely the best 1-2-3-4 combo in the game (Pierre, Castillo, Cabrera, Lowell), I don't know how you can at all ASSUME we will score fourty less runs. When you have JP and Luiy leading off the game, you cannot assume anything IMO. Id be basing that on his predicted dropoff in RBIs which had us driving in 70 some odd less runs from the starting lineup. I think I was modest by saying that if the starting lineup drove in that many fewer runs, the bench would compensate for 30 and we would lose 40.

 

 

Also I think some people would argue on that best 1-4 combo in the game claim. Pierre and Castillo are sharp at the 1-2 but you would have to predict a heck of a lot from Cabs and Lowell.

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Also I think some people would argue on that best 1-4 combo in the game claim. Pierre and Castillo are sharp at the 1-2 but you would have to predict a heck of a lot from Cabs and Lowell.

Pierre-Castillo is obviously the best 1-2 combo, no question. If Cabrera can outproduce Pudge's numbers from last year (which there is no doubt in my and alomst everyone else's minds he can) and Lowell can continue his dominance at the plate, we should definately have the best 1-2-3-4 combination in baseball.

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I'm a fan of the analysis Jonnylons, and the "modest" predictions seem pretty good and obtainable (Lowell and Pierre should easily surpass your predictions).

 

The one thing that I have seen, and don't ask me how this person came up with the formula, but he used the Bill James "win-share" thing and concluded that assuming all things similar to this season, yada yada yada, the dropoff in production should be around 6 games, meaning we win 85 games. Take that for what you will, and I said I have no idea how to calculate win shares exactly, but it seems that we will be in it come September...

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I liked the analysis as well ... to me i think the AVG of Castro, and Sea bass are a bit high... but i dont think we'll have trouble scoring runs.

 

Again its true we do have the best 1-2 punch and everyone knows it, although i still hope that Castillo brings that SB totals up a bit, if he could get like 28 - 33 (very possible) this year i'd be happy.

 

... and of course JP with like 55+

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Assuming a dropoff of 40 runs...

With most likely the best 1-2-3-4 combo in the game (Pierre, Castillo, Cabrera, Lowell), I don't know how you can at all ASSUME we will score fourty less runs. When you have JP and Luiy leading off the game, you cannot assume anything IMO. i agree

 

cabrera is going to see some good stuff to hit ...i think you can expect more from him

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I sure hope you are right!

 

 

I will say this - no unbiased national Baseball commentator is going to predict what you have, but we all know they have been wrong before.

 

As far as our 1-4 hitters. We do have the best 1-2 guys in the league.

 

Who is going to be the "hollandsworth" of the offseason additions. Is everyone going to end up being great additions?

 

Remember the Marlins best attribute at the end of last year was clutch hitting. Will that continue?

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Hee-Seop Choi .261 18HR 67RBI

Ramon Castro .267 19HR 72RBI

Alex Gonzalez .260 15HR 70RBI

P

If Choi hits .261 he should have a OBP close to .400 meaning Castro and Seabass should have many more RBIs than you have projected I should hope so - but remember, these are very modest projections. I figure if we start out worst case scenario (which this clearly isnt - a meteor falling out of the sky and wiping out the team in pregame would fit that... :thumbup ) we have a lot to be positive about.

 

I think Choi is going to surprise people, but not blow anyone away.

 

I think Cabrera is the real deal - and probably could end up an all star - has enough pub to get the votes and will have the stats.

 

Castro is going to hold his own and will, like most feel, hit more homeruns than Fudge but for less average.

 

I really think this team - out of the box - is almost a shoe in for 85 games. That is just on field production. That doesnt really count the McKeon factor or any X factors that come out of spring training. Last year, I felt we would get a surprise from an unknown player and we would have a significant injury. This year, I think the team gels even more and stays healthy - give or take a lump or two. I do think JP is going to have a tougher year than last though - teams will try and keep him off base in order to beat us.

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Hee-Seop Choi .261 18HR 67RBI

Ramon Castro .267 19HR 72RBI

Alex Gonzalez .260 15HR 70RBI

P

If Choi hits .261 he should have a OBP close to .400 meaning Castro and Seabass should have many more RBIs than you have projected I should hope so - but remember, these are very modest projections. I figure if we start out worst case scenario (which this clearly isnt - a meteor falling out of the sky and wiping out the team in pregame would fit that... :thumbup ) we have a lot to be positive about.

 

I think Choi is going to surprise people, but not blow anyone away.

 

I think Cabrera is the real deal - and probably could end up an all star - has enough pub to get the votes and will have the stats.

 

Castro is going to hold his own and will, like most feel, hit more homeruns than Fudge but for less average.

 

I really think this team - out of the box - is almost a shoe in for 85 games. That is just on field production. That doesnt really count the McKeon factor or any X factors that come out of spring training. Last year, I felt we would get a surprise from an unknown player and we would have a significant injury. This year, I think the team gels even more and stays healthy - give or take a lump or two. I do think JP is going to have a tougher year than last though - teams will try and keep him off base in order to beat us. Yeah, I agree with you a lot there. I think the two biggest questions this team will have to answer/address are:

 

1. How to deal with first base if Choi slumps/struggles

 

2. Can we find/get a fifth starter for at least the first half of the season so AJ isn't rushed back

 

If we have two sure fire answers for those two questions I don't see any reason this team can't win 85-90 games.

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