MiguelDontrelle

If Misner doesn't sign the Marlins lose the ~$2 mil slot amount assigned to his pick. So without that they probably don't have enough for Mokma. FWIW if Misner doesn't sign, we should get a similar pick next year to make up for it. So it'd be like deferring the pick/slot money to next year.

Does this account for the 5% past the bonus pool that they're allowed to spend? Effectively the max they can spend without losing future draft picks is $13,697,250.

We DFA'd him to make room for Cesar Puello, just acquired via trade w Angels. He was DFA'd when they activated Upton.

Are you saying it was that bad at the time of trade or post 2018? I thought the consensus at the time of the deal was that the Marlins did pretty well. I thought the 60 FV, 50, 50, 40 return was pretty much in line with the return Eaton got - the most similar comp I can think of, although his value might've been higher than Yelich's due to his contract - 60 FV Giolito, 55 Lopez, 45 Dunning. But yeah obviously the post 2018 outlook is worse given Yelich's 2018.

Not sure if understand or agree with this. If we're getting some mid-rotation starter out this trade (usually like 2-3 WAR type pitcher), 3 or 4 years of just that alone would easily out-WAR what the Cards are getting with Ozuna over his 2 seasons.

Mish says the Astros aren't offering Tucker and he still thinks the Braves are in the lead.

I don't necessarily disagree w this. I think they just really wanted out of the Stanton deal (which I get). Whether or not they "had" to trade Yelich is debatable.

Basically the farm sucked heading into this most recent rebuild because they spent most of 2014-2017 trading away every prospect with a pulse (and draft picks) in desperate win-now attempts. The 2017 trades helped get things back to normal. It's lazy to say the farm still sucks without acknowledging that last year it graduated Brinson/Anderson/Smith/Lopez/Richards/Sierra, which is a lot to lose in one year (literally zero systems can graduate this much on a consistent basis and stay strong - look at how far a team like the Cubs' system has fallen in recent years). Long term I'm not really worried about the farm because draft and IFA spending in 2018 was as good as I can ever remember it being.

I think tendering Straily effectively counts as the Marlins short-term SP acquisition for this season. He's probably about as good as anyone that can be had on a one year deal, at about half the price. Not expecting any other major league SP signings after him (minor league deals of course).

I checked Pipeline right after the Rule 5 draft and Ferrell was 19th in Houston's system. He was just added to our list and comes in at 21. Miami farm > Houston's

We got Riley Ferrell from Houston

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought this was more of a return on investment figure, not willingness to spend. Like, you signed a guy to a long term deal and at the end of it it turns out you spent ~$8 mil per win or whatever. And the number being so high reflects all of the bad Pujols type contracts that have been given out over the years. That doesn't mean teams want to spend that much for a win. Right now teams want to spend less than $5 mil per year for guys like Bour and Cron, so the idea that Santana @ $20 mil is reasonable makes no sense.

It's not really the projection that I have an issue with. It's the 1 win = $9-$10 mil that gets used a lot (not just in this thread's example). I don't think was ever intended to be used as a going rate for WAR for the type of analysis being used here. Like the idea that Santana's deal is somehow neutral when a guy like Schoop (similar projected WAR) just got $7.5 mil on the open market seems off.

Steamer projects ~1 fWAR for Justin Bour in 2019 and he just got 1 yr/$2.5 mil on the open market so I don't think those $/fWAR estimates you're using are too useful.

I have a feeling the Marlins would want peraza in a deal w Cincy.

If it's a Prado/Santana salary swap, the Mariners would be the ones adding more (via prospects probably) for the ~$25 million extra we'd be taking on.

He had a 4+ win year in his first full season. How is that a dumpster fire? A majority of prospects don't turn into 4 win players.

Padres made him unavailable when they were trying to get Thor.

Farm is obviously better but I wanted to avoid an all prospect return if possible.

Why not? They've been rumored to trade both in separate deals. In this scenario they're getting JT and whatever pitching prospect(s) they want from the Yankees

If this is still about the Mets wanting JT, the only way I think Andujar is involved is if NYY is getting Thor. Marlins - Andujar, Rosario Mets - JT, Pitching Prospects from NYY, potentially more from MIA like rojas or something NYY - Thor

My initial thought is they only want to give up one of Rosario/conforto/Nimmo and another team would give us something similar to those 3. But I'm not really sure what would happen between the Mets and the other team.

40-man is currently full so they'll have to change that in the next few days if they're taking anyone in the rule 5 draft Thurs

FWIW it was Paddack for Rodney straight up and Naylor was in the Cashner deal. If the reports of Loria meddling are true, Paddack for Rodney seems 100% like something Loria would want. The reason I said they might not want Naylor is because the value of one-dimensional 1B/OF types is at an all time low. If they acquired a guy like that, I think it would have be someone that's displayed more in-game power (like Alonso from NYM), which Naylor still hasn't really done yet. Not saying he couldn't eventually though.

I kinda doubt the Marlins would want Naylor back, but the other 4 seem good (I thought we were gonna draft Edwards and would've liked the pick). Padres also have a Competitive Balance pick in Round B (74 overall) which can be traded.