Wild Card

I'm not convinced that Keys can even put up a .270 average and .330 OBP in the major leagues without seeing him much beyond high A ball. The point is that he has a very limited number of areas that he needs to excel in to be a solid major league player. You just have way too high expectations. I seem to recall you saying in the past that he projects to be a .400 OBP player in the big leagues. You're just being ridiculous. I would never say any minor league player projects to have a .400 OBP in the majors, no matter who they are. That's an elite group of people. I'm not even disagreeing with you regarding my expectations, I have no idea what to expect, he has a little ways to go. However I don't disregard players that have that kind of hit tool... It's just silly to when he posts stupid numbers like he has.

But if you extended other player's the opportunity to have more PA's, they would rank higher too. Pierre's career CS% is also worse than guys like Reyes and Crawford. Pierre isn't necessarily any better at stealing bases--he just had more opportunities to do it and was rewarded by getting more playing time and staying healthy. That's not a sign of ability. And being ranked 3rd precisely shows that he was not dominant over that period. He was third best and was closely clustered together with the 4-5 ranked players. The Fangraphs stat absolutely strengthens the argument here. It also takes into consideration other aspects of baserunning, which is not determined entirely by stolen bases. Pierre was definitely a top 5 baserunner in the period spanning his entire career, but to call him the best is just plain silly and statistically absurd. It's not silly or statistically absurd when one set of real statistics say he stole the most bases, and another says he was third best but isn't actually a real statistic. So, he's not top 5, he's top 3. And he's arguably the best of a generation because the actual stats say so, not my opinion, real numbers. Let's just end this, we're not going to agree.

I have a hard time seeing a player with such limited offensive upside being a top 15 prospect on a list that also includes pitchers. You are just overrating him and underestimating what his faults do to his value. You do this with a lot of Marlins players. Because despite the lack of power, there are very few people wearing a professional uniform that can post batting averages over .330 and OBP over .400 at any level of the game. That makes his limited power less important. If you don't agree that's fine, but when a player can hit and get on base like that other things become less relevant. Would power help? Yea, it would make him Barry Fucking Bonds. But you don't have to be Barry Bonds to be valuable.

Those aren't really facts. Your method of evaluation is nonsense. It's bad statistics. You excuse Pierre finishing 5th because he had less PAs. You can make the same excuse for some of the other elite baserunners of the decade--not all of whom had regular playing time by 2001. Setting the two limits as 2001 and 2010 is entirely arbitrary too. They are the definition of facts. They are literally, 100%, facts. It was less of an excuse and more of a way to point out that Juan Pierre finished 1st or 2nd in stolen bases in all of baseball for a decade outside of two years he did not receive regular playing time. If he had received regular playing time, he would have ranked 1st or 2nd EVERY YEAR for AN ENTIRE DECADE. That is absolute dominance of that area of the game. Even the THEORY that you want to use (FanGraphs' ratings are based on formulas and theories, not reality) ranks him #3 over a decade. That's not really helping your argument IMO.

Since you seem surprised that BA and Fangraphs aren't giving him more credit, you are overrating Keys and underestimating the importance of his complete lack of power. He also hasn't done anything about high A ball yet. You are making him to be much more than he should be considered to be right now. Not really, making him out to be more than he is would be saying he should be a top 5 player in the organization. He is arguably a top 10 player, I think he's a much more valuable prospect than Realmuto. My opinion is that he is absolutely a top 15 prospect in our system. If they don't want to agree, fine, I just disagree. We're also talking about two lists that don't include Wittgren. So, the credibility level is... suspect. Whatever, it's really not a big deal, I guess I just have more faith in him than others. We see how often the prototypical "Toolsy" players like Reggie Abercrombie and Issac Galloway always work out, right?

The Marlins clearly have much more confidence in Hechavarria than they did with Brantly. Hopefully, if he has another sub .600 OPS season, they'll starting searching for a new answer...

You cannot anticipate what role a player will have in the majors by assuming that his minor league numbers will carry over. Making this more difficult than it is. How do any prospects get looked at or get a chance to move up. Probably by looking at what they posted in the previous levels, high school, college, or minors. I mean you have to make some assumptions on a prospect or there is no point in even calling them a prospect. What better way to make an assumption than based on what they have already proven and making a guess at what their physical abilities will become. You look at the players tools/skill set. Keys has a limited range of offensive skills, which puts a low ceiling on his upside. I've explained this countless times to you both already. That's precisely why Baseball America and Fangraphs are ignoring him. His upside is really limited compared to most other outfield prospects. Dude, nobody disagrees his ceiling is limited without power. Nobody. We just think the kid deserves a little more credit, he just continues to hit at every level and the scary part is he gets better with every promotion. That's it.

Being the best at something should never be considered upon counting stats. That's statistics 101. The sampling size needs to be reasonable, but Juan Pierre isn't a better base stealer than Jose Reyes is just because he managed to stay healthier. Being the best at something should be determined by ability, not longevity. That's why baseball analysts rely on rate-driven stats and rarely pay attention to counting stats. So you're willing to simply ignore these facts? From 2001 to 2010 Juan Pierre led MLB in stolen bases 3 times. He was second 5 times. He was 5th two times. The ONLY reason he was 5th was due to 425 and 406 PA in those two seasons. That is absolute dominance over an entire decade. You're just wrong.

You cannot anticipate what role a player will have in the majors by assuming that his minor league numbers will carry over. Using the number .380 would anticipate a drop off of .035 points from his OBP, it's NOT assuming his numbers carry over. Hell, drop off .050 points... he's still valuable and a starting major-league outfielder on a number of MLB teams...

Then you aren't making a point here. Pierre was never the best baserunner in baseball. You have not competently argued otherwise. What does this have to do with Keys anyway? Yea, I'm done with this discussion. Dude, go do some research or something.

I'm not denying that there's a difference between pure speed and baserunning. I think you are wrong in saying that Pierre is a once in a generation baserunner and think you are also wrong in saying that Pierre is a better baserunner than Hamilton. Only ONE base runner ahead of Juan Pierre on the All-Time list (he ranks 16th) was an active Major League player during Juan Pierre's career; Kenny Lofton, with 622 through age 40. Pierre has 614 through age 36. He is a once in a generation base runner. This makes no sense. First of all, looking at career stolen bases is absolutely ridiculous. It just favors longevity. Players like Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes have the same ability (if not better) that Pierre has. Just because they haven't accumulated higher career totals yet (hampered by injuries and other things) doesn't mean they are lesser baserunners. OK, you're right. Juan Pierre stayed around baseball for 15 years because of his great, uh, arm. That's it... Yea. And his ability to get on base... And, and, and... his glove. Yup, all those things. Not because he is the best base runner of his generation. If you don't think that longevity has to do with earning the phrase "Best of a Generation" then you're extremely short sighted. You can only be the best of a generation if you've been around and playing and consistent for a generation, at least in my opinion. I mean, would you call Chris Davis the best power hitter of his generation? I mean, "Just because (he hasn't) accumulated higher career totals yet (hampered by injuries and other things) doesn't mean (he is a lesser power hitter)."

That's assuming that Keys is capable of putting up .380 OBP in MLB, which is something that I doubt. Pierre had elite speed to compensate for that. Without it he's kind of worthless. Keys doesn't bring much else to the table. He's a reserve outfielder at best. I mean, no, if he can post that .380 OBP you suggested in the majors (his OBP this season was actually .415 between A/AA ball) then he's a starting CFer at best. He's a reserve outfielder at worst if he can't post those numbers.

I think you are both talking out of your asses about the Pierre baserunning stuff. If he didn't have elite speed, you wouldn't be calling him a once in a generation baserunner. You can certainly have elite speed and make judgmental errors on the basepaths, but having that speed goes a long way into granting a player high value in terms of baserunning. Keys doesn't project to come even close to having the baserunning value of a Pierre or Castillo. I never, ever said Keys had the base running value that those two did. Never. Juan Pierre does have excellent speed. What I am saying is he was not the fastest guy in the majors at any point in his career, just great speed and great skills. Hamilton has once in a lifetime speed but does not have the skills Pierre does on the base paths, at least not yet. He will get plenty of practice to improve that... lol

I'm not denying that there's a difference between pure speed and baserunning. I think you are wrong in saying that Pierre is a once in a generation baserunner and think you are also wrong in saying that Pierre is a better baserunner than Hamilton. Only ONE base runner ahead of Juan Pierre on the All-Time list (he ranks 16th) was an active Major League player during Juan Pierre's career; Kenny Lofton, with 622 through age 40. Pierre has 614 through age 36. He is a once in a generation base runner.

Everything I've read says he's capable of playing CF in the majors. And he has speed, not Pierre-level, but that's like a once in a generation base runner. Link? I only see references to scouts being uncertain as to whether he can remain in CF. Keys probably has slightly above average speed. That's not going to do much to increase his value. http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?c_id=mia#list=mia

Lots of Juan Pierre level speedsters, actually. Billy Hamilton, now THAT'S once in a generation. Pierre is a once in a generation base runner, not speedster. There's a gigantic difference between those two terms. Juan Pierre is a better base runner than Billy Hamilton, but Hamilton is faster than any base runner alive. I don't think that any of this is true. Is this a joke? How do you think players with average, even below average speed like Derrek Lee and Chipper Jones were able to swipe 10-20 bases a year? Pure intelligence on the base paths, being elite base runners. Running the bases is absolutely a skill, if you disagree, you probably never played the game.

I like Keys, myself. I feel people overrate the lack of power, personally. Just cause a guy doesn't OPS .800 doesn't make him a bad player, but whatever. The lack of power drastically limits his ceiling. That's why Fangraphs and Baseball America aren't ranking him. Doesn't mean there isn't a place in the game for a player like that. I know Juan Pierre isn't a great comparison for Keys, but he made $50+ Million in his career and barely reached double digit career HR. Power isn't everything if you can contribute in other ways. If Keys can get to the majors and hit and get on base this way, he will be a very fun lead off hitter to watch... But that's a big IF. If he can't produce these kinds of numbers in the bigs, he is a career 4th/5th OFer. He's still going to be a major leaguer, one way or the other. Let's put it this way, I'll take Brent Keys and his tools over Kyle Jensen and all that power...

Maybe that is a better comparison but I was looking at positions and being they are both outfielders that fit best. Like I stated I understand their is a speed difference but I am looking at two guys that play outfield and can get on base and move around the bases once on. Keys is a better runner than Castillo and plays a different position so that is a tough comparison as well, but the point is Keys can't be overlooked because he doesn't have power. Penguino thinks hitting for average and high OBP are just one aspect of the game albeit very very important aspects. Keys gets on base, hits for average, steels a few bases, plays a solid outfield, oh but I forgot he doesn't have power he's not worth talking about. I agree the power thing gets a bit out of hand. However, Keys IS NOT a better base runner than Luis Castillo. In his prime, Castillo was the best base runner in MLB. Keys won't steal more than 20 bases in the big on average. He's above average, nothing more. But I agree he does have value, if he can put up numbers similar his minor league career, he will have a long and profitable career in the majors.

Lots of Juan Pierre level speedsters, actually. Billy Hamilton, now THAT'S once in a generation. Pierre is a once in a generation base runner, not speedster. There's a gigantic difference between those two terms. Juan Pierre is a better base runner than Billy Hamilton, but Hamilton is faster than any base runner alive.

The Marlins don't have to look very hard to find someone to hit better than Hechavarria or Diaz. The issue is that they won't even bother to try because they are going to start Hechavarria at SS next season regardless because they see "potential" in him. Correct. It'll take two years for them to give up on him. They saw Brantly as the catcher of the future (I did, too) and they eventually recognized that may not be right. Hopefully they do the same with Hech if he under performs again.

I hope they come to terms... arbitration process sucks when you're trying to woo a player to stay.

Everything I've read says he's capable of playing CF in the majors. And he has speed, not Pierre-level, but that's like a once in a generation base runner.

I kinda see that one guy we signed, Juan Diaz, as filling in at third for a year. He's a shortstop, yes, but he's 6'4 200, might translate decently at third. Who knows? Jesus, I hope not. His numbers are worse than Zack Cox... At least Cox gets on base.

The Marlins signed Juan Diaz to a minor league contract. He is the best choice for starting SS in 2014 and now the best SS in the marlins system. This is a really really nice signing imo. Baseball America still likes him... but on paper he looks like another Hechavarria...

He's come around in the AFL, as well. He's hitting .319 with a .773 OPS. I'm going to have to assume Moran is starting in Jupiter, and that's honestly where I wanted him to go, anyhow. Nothing against him, but I'd rather he progress naturally rather than jump a level. Agreed on Moran. Especially if we're able to pick up a serviceable player like Freese for a year, there's no need to rush him. Start in Jupiter, if it goes well send him up to Jax... go from there.