If maybin is sent down this year he is out of options next year and wont be riding the bench in April and May. I think he is absolutely penciled in for next year. I can't see them trading him per above, we have no other CF depth in the organization and don't need to be throwing FA dollars at an outfielder right now with a big decision on Uggla coming, and a lot of arbitration coming to Nolasco, Leo, Anibal, and Paulino, who all are going go be retained at this rate. Stadium isn't a fix all like some are saying. you still have to spend smart, even if you can spend more.
I'm talking about the risk of Maybin not hitting next year. I think the Marlins will retain Ross and be open to the possibility that he will need to be the CFer if Maybin doesn't hit.
This won't entail throwing away a lot of FA dollars, but could require Coghlan to stay in the OF (if Uggla stays and Cantu goes) or possibly putting Morrison in LF.
Maybin hasn't proven enough to be entitled the CF position for 2011. And I never said this means that he will leave the organization. Maybe the Marlins don't demote him this season or maybe they simply use him as a spot starter/bench player in 2011 if he still isn't hitting.
2011 is his last chance to prove that he can be an everyday CFer. The Marlins need to be prepared in case of failure and not assume he's going to be the guy.
I get your train of thought, but two things come to mind for me. One, I don't think the organization shares your sense of urgency with Maybin and that they truly believe in him still. and Two, payroll is going to come into play.
The way I see it is, this team's most urgent need for 2011 is a 3B. And really, this is how it starts for Maybin being counted on. Cantu (and Helms) are FA, Gaby can't play their anymore, Dominguez is starting to put a solid year in AA, but Fleming has already said he is staying in Jax all year, and they will reassess next year. He is being fast tracked, but not for opening day 2011. So this leaves two internal candidates for 3B - Coghlan and Uggla. And considering that one of them starts at 2B, and Bonifacio, Barden, or Osvlado Martinez is not the answer right now, one of those two needs to play 2B also. I think they keep Uggla for these reasons despite trying to move him this offseason as things have changed now, and keeping Uggla means $10-11 million dollars. Payroll is going up, but that's still going to be 15-20% of overall salary easy.
So if we start penciling in the must starts all over the field
C - Paulino ($2.5)
1B - Gaby < - Has earned it (min)
2B - Uggla ($10)
SS - Hanley ($11)
3B - Coghlan ($600k)
LF -
CF -
RF - Stanton (min)
Bench - Bonifacio/Barden (min), Baker (min), X, X, X
SP - Johnson ($7.7), Nolasco ($6), Volstad (min), Anibal ($2.5), West (min)
RP - Leo ($4), and who the hell knows
We're around $46 million already, and I am anticipating payroll in the $55-60 range (2010 payroll is $47 million).
So we need starting LF, RF, three bench players, and 6 relievers. That is a lot of bodies. However, we have this not above yet...
LF - Morrison
CF - Maybin
Bench - Petersen/Cousins
Relievers - Andrew Miller (who is going to cost $1,400,000.... yea), Pinto ($2+ million), Hensley ($1+ million) Sanches, Leroux, Vanden Hurk, Marinez, Sanches, Meyer, Badenhop, Wood, Tank, etc etc
So you plug in Morrison and Maybin, sign a good solid veteran CF for $2 million versus keeping Cody for $6+ million (because you need Uggla positionally more than you need Cody and only so much money to go around), resign Wes Helms which I think is a given at this point because of our love fest with him for $1 million, and then give the last bench spot to "best camp kid on the 40 man," you've added $4.2 million to finish the position players, over $50 million just like that.
Then Hensley hits arbitration, he's a must keep if he continues this. That's about $1 million, Sanches makes the minimum, Vanden Hurk is out of options he's in, he's making the minimum, Badenhop will be making the minimum since he's spending a huge part of this year in AAA, he's in, and then if someone sucks, let it rip with higher potential Marinez/Ceda/Leroux/Wood for RHP spots. So after the right handers, we're at $52-53 million.
How about they sign a LOOGY for $2 million, or (and I know this strikes fear) keep Pinto for that amount, and then your last spot is for Andrew Miller "if" he turns it around this second half of the year, and if not camp battle with Meyer, new acquisitions, and street free agents. That's the low ball $55ish million payroll just like that. And do you really think they spend more?
SO BRINGING IT FULL CIRCLE, and I just feel it's important to lay it out to really see where they are going,
-Uggla is more important positionally, let alone production, than Cody, gotta keep him and go with the all rookie outfield and just get a really strong OF veteran to be a true 4th outfielder and help them. I guess you could keep Cody, sign a veteran 3B, and move Coghlan to 2B, which they may do, but signing a starter for 1 year versus a guy to essentially be a super 4th outfielder is a tougher sign.
-Resigning Helms helps Coghlan at 3B, and Coghlan could always cover the OF and Helms spot start a few. Leaving additional backup for the outfield.
and here's the kicker - mid season Matt Dominguez will have a half year in AAA, and if he is ready to go, Dominguez can slot in at 3B, Coghlan pushes somebody else out of the starting lineup. And if it's Maybin, short term I bet Mike Stanton is the contingency in CF (seriously, he can probably do it short term. He was playing CF last year), and if they need someone, go out at the deadline and get a real CF to help because a "David Dejesus" is out there every year. That's the Maybin contingency to me - trade deadline (and solid veteran 4th outfielder).
I just don't think Cody is NEEDED if the only reason is to backup in case Maybin fails. The OF is really covered. I say you let it rip with the above team, and hope all the kids hit. Personally, I think there will be bumps but Hanley, Uggla, the catchers, and Coghlan are pretty much going to hit, Gaby does not get cheated and I can't see that changing, and Stanton, Morrison, and Maybin will have their moments, with clear huge potential with all three of them. Back them up with a STRONG VETERAN BENCH and I think all will be well. Especially with Dominguez lurking, and the trade deadline. This isn't including anything we get by trading Cantu and Ross, which in a worst case scenario, is bringing back a quality young RP arm if nothing else to help out there.
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Just saying, I don't want to just assume Maybin is going to hit, but at the same time we REALLY need him to financially and longterm.
I'd say send him to AAA, and say it's his job to lose in spring training. And if Cousins, or "that veteran" wants to beat him out, so be it. To the bench, and fight your way into playing time and the 2012 starting lineup. I do agree there, if he isn't hitting by the end of 2011, he's done with this organization and it's time for the Marlins to go sign a free agent CF.
Just throwing a name out that no one seems to be mentioning......John Raynor, was a high prospect a year ago before the Rule 5 draft to Pittsburgh. He is on the DL for the 2nd time in a month, but is hitting .310 with limited PA this spring. If anyone remembers he was a star in AA a couple years ago.