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Bush leads in the electoral college


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NEW YORK (CNN) -- President Bush heads into the Republican National Convention next week with a small lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts.

 

Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry's 264 if the election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November 2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in Madison Square Garden. If Kerry were to pick up a state as small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.

 

CNN's political unit compiled the electoral map after reviewing state polls and conducting extensive interviews with pollsters from both campaigns, as well as local political reporters, strategists and consultants.

 

The map bears a remarkable resemblance to the results of the 2000 election, in which Bush defeated Al Gore by just five electoral votes and lost the popular vote. Bush remains strong in the South, the prairie and mountain states. Kerry leads in his native Northeast and on the West Coast. The two candidates continue to battle evenly in industrial Midwest states.

 

Bush is carrying every state he carried four years ago -- except New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes.

 

In New Hampshire, which Bush won by 7,211 votes four years ago, Kerry, a native of adjacent Massachusetts, is benefiting from high name recognition and the widespread coverage he received during the state's primaries.

 

Kerry won the primary in January after scoring a come-from-behind victory over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the Iowa caucuses one week earlier.

 

About a dozen states remain extremely competitive and are widely considered too close to call. Leading that list are Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Missouri, where Bush holds a narrow lead, as well as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Pennsylvania, which now lean toward Kerry.

 

West Virginia and Arizona are also competitive, but Democrats concede that those state now fall into the Bush column. Likewise, Oregon and Washington state could ultimately back either candidate, but Kerry is currently building a strong base of support in the Pacific Northwest.

 

The race in Ohio remains extremely fluid, and both campaigns remain highly organized in the Buckeye State. All four principals -- and most of their wives -- have campaigned there at least once over the past two weeks.

 

The state's industrial base has been hard hit by job losses and, Democrats say, voters have grown disenchanted with the Republicans' control of both state and federal government. These days, Republican Gov. Bob Taft's approval rating hovers near or below 40 percent.

 

"That's what you have in Taft and what people are seeing nationally -- a very strongly negative feeling there about the Republican Party," a Democratic strategist said.

 

Republicans concede that Columbus, Ohio, a normally Republican area, is trending more Democratic. Also, Cincinnati has not been performing as well for Republicans as it has in the past.

 

In Florida, Bush is aided by one of the nation's strongest economies and best job markets. He also has a strong surrogate in his brother, Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, who won re-election by 13 points two years ago and remains highly popular.

 

Bush-Cheney aides say the Bush brothers help each other with different demographics: The governor does better among younger voters, the president performs better among older voters.

 

Democrats say they're focusing on turnout in Miami-Dade County, a party stronghold that contains nearly one-fifth of the state's population and where Gore-Lieberman failed to generate a strong turnout four years ago.

 

The CNN survey reveals some interesting trends as the campaign nears the crucial Labor Day checkpoint.

 

For example, less than two months after Kerry chose Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate in part to challenge Bush's lock on the South, his campaign has made few inroads into any state south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

 

Kerry last month pulled TV ads his campaign was running in Arkansas, Virginia and Louisiana, and strategists now concede they have little chance of carrying those states. Part of Kerry's problem, aides say, has been a failure to generate support among a large segment of the African-American vote, particularly in states like Louisiana.

 

The one exception to this trend is North Carolina, which has voted for the GOP presidential nominee every year since 1964. Bush still leads there, aided by a strong base of social conservatives. But Kerry's selection of Edwards has helped him cut into Bush's lead.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/27/...oral/index.html

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Here is an extremley pro Bush site that predicts Kerry stomping Bush right now.

 

http://www.electionprojection.com

 

I hope accord doesnt go off on a rant and accuse me insulting him or posting "google stuff" because he doesnt like it. Btw, I love the two shots taken at liberals on this thread while the only people to whine about political shots have been the conservatives.

 

As far as the lead goes, this has not been a typical election. The electorate is as divided as ever and most people have already decided who they will vote for. There simply will not be many republicans who will sway to Kerry. Interesting to note that it is tied and historically undecided voters go to the challenger at a higher rate.

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Btw, I love the two shots taken at liberals on this thread while the only people to whine about political shots have been the conservatives.

529899[/snapback]

Conservatives are bullies. And when someone slightly insults them, they go and cry calling liberals commies.

 

 

Its just like the West Wing quote thatI love oh so much.

 

Somebody came along and said 'liberal' means 'soft on crime, soft on drugs, soft on Communism, soft on defense, and we're gonna tax you back to the Stone Age because people shouldn't have to go to work if they don't want to.' And instead of saying, 'Well, excuse me, you right-wing, reactionary, xenophobic, homophobic, anti-education, anti-choice, pro-gun, Leave it to Beaver trip back to the '50s,' we cowered in the corner and said, 'Please don't hurt me.'"

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As much as you think otherwise, I suspect the election will follow a trajectory similar to Mondale or Dukakis with the peaks/valleys being a bit muted, but present none the less - it becomes a death spiral.

 

 

 

Are you serious? You cant even compare Bush now to Regean and Bush sr in those elections. No way that happens. First off he isnt nearly as popular. Second, look at the percentage of people who think the country is going in the wrong direction. Its immense for a sitting president. Bush is much more unpopular and hated.

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Here is an interesting tidbit of info brought to us by CNNs Carlos Watson:

 

On the eve of the Republican National Convention, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows President Bush and Sen. John Kerry locked in a dead heat among registered voters.

 

Historically, this does not put Bush in good campaign company. The last time an incumbent race was this close was in late August in 1980, when challenger Ronald Reagan denied Jimmy Carter a second term.

 

Since 1972, six incumbent presidents have run for re-election. Only three (Nixon, Reagan and Clinton) won, and in each of those cases they were ahead in late August Gallup polls by more than 10 points. The losing incumbents were not.

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And no tonyi, I dont think Kerry will stomp Bush. I just posted the link to dismiss accord's post. Do you think Bush will run away with it after the RNC?

529942[/snapback]

 

I think the dems foolishly shot all their arrows at Bush early on and didn't save anything for the stretch. At least there not even any hints so far of any new ammo.

 

I think the Kerry campaign was dumb to respond to the SwiftVet stuff - that invited media scrutiny and the media have caught Kerry on several points that would have otherwise gone completely unnoticed had Kerry not chosen to make his 4 months in Vietnam a campaign centerpiece.

 

529976[/snapback]

 

so you would have just sat there & let the attacks continue? like John McCain did? how'd that work out for him by the way? one of the things that irritate some democrats is that their party doesn't fight back when the so-called "republican attack machine" gets going. he defended himself, you want to call it "stooping to their level" or giving legitimacy to their claims, whatever. I don't think he could just sit there and ignore it.

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Clearly the ads were starting to have an effect so Kerry had to respond. For him to sit there and do nothing would have been utterly foolish. The general consenus has been he should have acted immediatley. And please explain why a strategy for a primary wouldnt also work in the general election that has essentially operated as a battle for a few states. Like with McCain in SC, the swifties have been running this ad in Ohio where they know itll work. What caused this thing to stick was not Kerry response. It was the swifties having an effect and the media noticing that effect. Kerry might have gotten to it the best way possible by linking it to Bush and having Bush defend himself.

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Clearly the ads were starting to have an effect so Kerry had to respond. For him to sit there and do nothing would have been utterly foolish. The general consenus has been he should have acted immediatley. And please explain why a strategy for a primary wouldnt also work in the general election that has essentially operated as a battle for a few states. Like with McCain in SC, the swifties have been running this ad in Ohio where they know itll work. What caused this thing to stick was not Kerry response. It was the swifties having an effect and the media noticing that effect. Kerry might have gotten to it the best way possible by linking it to Bush and having Bush defend himself.

530870[/snapback]

 

 

This is actually an old political rule. Responding to a negative ad is perceived as it hitting a nerve with the candidate. So people begin to think could some of it be true? Kerry's best move would have been to dismiss it as garbage and ignore it. Then it wouldnt have come to the forefront and would have swung by unnoticed

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Guest Juanky

As much as you think otherwise, I suspect the election will follow a trajectory similar to Mondale or Dukakis with the peaks/valleys being a bit muted, but present none the less - it becomes a death spiral.

 

 

 

Are you serious? You cant even compare Bush now to Regean and Bush sr in those elections. No way that happens. First off he isnt nearly as popular. Second, look at the percentage of people who think the country is going in the wrong direction. Its immense for a sitting president. Bush is much more unpopular and hated.

529978[/snapback]

I'm going to agree with f_m here. If there is a blowout on either side it's going to be a huge surprise, if not I don't see this one decided by more than 5% the way things are going.

 

However, if Kerry slips too much after the RNC Convention, that might change.

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As much as you think otherwise, I suspect the election will follow a trajectory similar to Mondale or Dukakis with the peaks/valleys being a bit muted, but present none the less - it becomes a death spiral.

 

 

 

Are you serious? You cant even compare Bush now to Regean and Bush sr in those elections. No way that happens. First off he isnt nearly as popular. Second, look at the percentage of people who think the country is going in the wrong direction. Its immense for a sitting president. Bush is much more unpopular and hated.

529978[/snapback]

I'm going to agree with f_m here. If there is a blowout on either side it's going to be a huge surprise, if not I don't see this one decided by more than 5% the way things are going.

 

However, if Kerry slips too much after the RNC Convention, that might change.

532710[/snapback]

 

no one knows what the outcome will be obviously, but it just so happens that the polls as close as they are now could mean either most people have already decided or if you choose to follow 20th century trends would mean bush is gaining momentum for a victory.

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Clearly the ads were starting to have an effect so Kerry had to respond. For him to sit there and do nothing would have been utterly foolish. The general consenus has been he should have acted immediatley. And please explain why a strategy for a primary wouldnt also work in the general election that has essentially operated as a battle for a few states. Like with McCain in SC, the swifties have been running this ad in Ohio where they know itll work. What caused this thing to stick was not Kerry response. It was the swifties having an effect and the media noticing that effect. Kerry might have gotten to it the best way possible by linking it to Bush and having Bush defend himself.

530870[/snapback]

 

 

This is actually an old political rule. Responding to a negative ad is perceived as it hitting a nerve with the candidate. So people begin to think could some of it be true? Kerry's best move would have been to dismiss it as garbage and ignore it. Then it wouldnt have come to the forefront and would have swung by unnoticed

532697[/snapback]

 

You all have got to be kidding me. You're telling me that the public's just going to ignore all these swiftboat ads simply because Kerry would too? Ridiculous. The media would be all over him and his team, pushing for responses. There would be right-wing groups digging for details until Kerry would be finally forced to say something, which was pretty much the way it went down. I would love it if candidates could take the high road, but the reason attacks like these are made is because they get results. That & there's really no risk to them, when the candidates can just disassociate himself from them.

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Clearly the ads were starting to have an effect so Kerry had to respond. For him to sit there and do nothing would have been utterly foolish. The general consenus has been he should have acted immediatley. And please explain why a strategy for a primary wouldnt also work in the general election that has essentially operated as a battle for a few states. Like with McCain in SC, the swifties have been running this ad in Ohio where they know itll work. What caused this thing to stick was not Kerry response. It was the swifties having an effect and the media noticing that effect. Kerry might have gotten to it the best way possible by linking it to Bush and having Bush defend himself.

530870[/snapback]

 

 

This is actually an old political rule. Responding to a negative ad is perceived as it hitting a nerve with the candidate. So people begin to think could some of it be true? Kerry's best move would have been to dismiss it as garbage and ignore it. Then it wouldnt have come to the forefront and would have swung by unnoticed

532697[/snapback]

 

You all have got to be kidding me. You're telling me that the public's just going to ignore all these swiftboat ads simply because Kerry would too? Ridiculous. The media would be all over him and his team, pushing for responses. There would be right-wing groups digging for details until Kerry would be finally forced to say something, which was pretty much the way it went down. I would love it if candidates could take the high road, but the reason attacks like these are made is because they get results. That & there's really no risk to them, when the candidates can just disassociate himself from them.

532768[/snapback]

 

this isnt true at all, the same way bush hasnt picked out any moveon attacks and has not openly crisized the lies in f911. If kerry doesnt act people will never be ceratin if the ads have some truth or not, by kerry showing the ads 'bother' him it cats doubt into people's heads. In fact what has hurt him most about the ads is his response to them not the ads themselves, which can be dismissed as right wing hogwash by media outlets

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Clearly the ads were starting to have an effect so Kerry had to respond. For him to sit there and do nothing would have been utterly foolish. The general consenus has been he should have acted immediatley. And please explain why a strategy for a primary wouldnt also work in the general election that has essentially operated as a battle for a few states. Like with McCain in SC, the swifties have been running this ad in Ohio where they know itll work. What caused this thing to stick was not Kerry response. It was the swifties having an effect and the media noticing that effect. Kerry might have gotten to it the best way possible by linking it to Bush and having Bush defend himself.

530870[/snapback]

 

 

This is actually an old political rule. Responding to a negative ad is perceived as it hitting a nerve with the candidate. So people begin to think could some of it be true? Kerry's best move would have been to dismiss it as garbage and ignore it. Then it wouldnt have come to the forefront and would have swung by unnoticed

532697[/snapback]

 

You all have got to be kidding me. You're telling me that the public's just going to ignore all these swiftboat ads simply because Kerry would too? Ridiculous. The media would be all over him and his team, pushing for responses. There would be right-wing groups digging for details until Kerry would be finally forced to say something, which was pretty much the way it went down. I would love it if candidates could take the high road, but the reason attacks like these are made is because they get results. That & there's really no risk to them, when the candidates can just disassociate himself from them.

532768[/snapback]

 

this isnt true at all, the same way bush hasnt picked out any moveon attacks and has not openly crisized the lies in f911. If kerry doesnt act people will never be ceratin if the ads have some truth or not, by kerry showing the ads 'bother' him it cats doubt into people's heads. In fact what has hurt him most about the ads is his response to them not the ads themselves, which can be dismissed as right wing hogwash by media outlets

532838[/snapback]

 

Well this is your opinion, which is fine. I just disagree.

 

Particularly because this ...the ads themselves, which can be dismissed as right wing hogwash by media outlets

isn't the case. when have you seen the media dismiss a possible scandal as hogwash? particularly one like that which attacked the entire base of his convention speech?

 

Kerry didn't respond to the ads immediately, and they didn't stop. People I talked to were getting annoyed that he wouldn't stand up & defend himself. Again, I would like to agree with you, but I maintain that there is still a segment out there that wants to see them show some backbone, pointless as it may sound to you & I.

 

And I agree that Bush shouldn't respond to Fahrenheit 911, that would be ridiculous.

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Guest Moneyball

Conservatives are bullies. And when someone slightly insults them, they go and cry calling liberals commies.

 

 

 

i'm a republican and i'm not a bully.

 

go get a life before i start bullying you around.

shut up you liberal commie. :p j/k :plain

 

 

the talk of the electoral college lead is dumb. it seems like every other week both candidates switch the lead in the electoral college. not until election night will we know who has the real lead. BUT polls have suggested that bush has closed if not gone ahead by a slight margin in some states in which he was down BEFORE the convention. BUT i will not say if this a temporary spike or something the kerry camp should be worried about.

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