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000

WTNT34 KNHC 022031

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

 

...NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555

MILES... 890 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32

KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION... 9.7 N... 29.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

11 PM EDT.

 

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just what we need...

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000

WTNT44 KNHC 022029

TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

 

METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA

ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE

VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...28 TO 29

DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY AFFECT THE SYSTEM

ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT

TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH

IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS IS FORECAST.

 

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

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000

WTNT34 KNHC 030227

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM AST THU SEP 02 2004

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...

 

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL

DEPRESSION NINE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE

29.4 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE

VERDE ISLANDS.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH

...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON

FRIDAY.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION... 9.8 N... 29.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

 

$$

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WHILE I AM NOT CRAZY ABOUT RELOCATING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT

NIGHT...AN SSMI PASS NEAR 23Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE

DEPRESSION IS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NEAR THE

NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SHOW

ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...CONSISTENT

WITH THIS POSITIONING OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN

MAINTAINING A BALL OF VERY COLD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL

HOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z

WERE 30 KT. HOWEVER...THESE ESTIMATES WERE BASED ON POSITIONS MORE

EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...AND SO I AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE

INITIAL INTENSITY AT 25 KT.

 

WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW

ESTIMATED TO BE 270/12. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP

EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO

BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD

AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS ON A BRISK

WESTWARD MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...

BUT APPEARS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE CONSOLIDATING A CIRCULATION DURING

THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE INTEGRATION...AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY

AS A RESULT OF THE RELOCATION AND CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION.

 

THE GFDL HAS UNBRIDLED ENTHUSIASM FOR THIS SYSTEM...TAKING THE

DEPRESSION TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. BOTH THE

GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL BE SLOW TO

DIMINISH AS THE DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN

UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. STEADY STRENGTHENING WILL BE

FORECAST...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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It is now Tropical Storm Ivan, DT please change it to Tropical Storm Ivan watch thread...

 

 

...IVAN FORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...NINTH NAMED STORM OF THE

2004 SEASON...

 

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM

IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...

LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES... 985 KM...

SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

 

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES

... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...10.0 N... 30.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

 

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN

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Tropical Storm IVAN

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

000

WTNT44 KNHC 030840

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

 

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM BOTH

TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE

SIGNATURE...T.D. NINE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IVAN. IVAN

CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. GLOBALS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH IVAN THROUGH

THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN

EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SAVE NOGAPS WHICH IS SLOWER AND MORE

POLEWARD...AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND

ESSENTIALLY MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS.

 

IVAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SITUATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND

IVAN WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO

AGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN IVAN TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY 84

HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL NOT

TOTALLY DIMINISH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE MODEST

STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.

 

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN

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So do you take your shutters down after Frances passes or leave them up? I'm inclined to maybe remove the ones from the Family Room, and leave all the rest up...Same goes with all of the crap I just removed from my florida room....

539073[/snapback]

 

If I was you, I would leave them up and remove some to get some natural light into the house.

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...Ivan gradually strengthening over the tropical Atlantic...

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Ivan was located

near latitude 9.6 north...longitude 32.9 west or about 745

miles...1200 km...southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

 

Ivan is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this

general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher

gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

 

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles

... 95 km from the center.

 

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position... 9.6 N... 32.9 W. Movement

toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph.

Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

 

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at

5 PM AST.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

$$

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The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some

banding features...and current intensity is set to 40 kt...about the

average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB...SAB...and AFWA. There

is modest northeasterly shear over the system...but this is not

likely to be much of a hinderance to strengthening. Therefore the

official forecast calls for steady intensification.

Initial motion estimate for this package is a little faster...

260/16. There has been no change to the steering pattern. Ivan is

embedded in a well-defined easterly current to the south of a

strong high pressure area. Global models indicate that this regime

will persist for the next several days. The official track

forecast is only a little to the south of the previous one...and

very close to the GUNA consensus. The GFS and GFDL tracks are

significantly farther to the south.

Forecaster Pasch

 

forecast positions and Max winds

 

initial 03/1500z 9.6n 32.9w 40 kt

12hr VT 04/0000z 9.7n 35.5w 50 kt

24hr VT 04/1200z 10.0n 38.7w 55 kt

36hr VT 05/0000z 10.3n 42.0w 60 kt

48hr VT 05/1200z 10.5n 45.0w 65 kt

72hr VT 06/1200z 11.5n 51.0w 70 kt

96hr VT 07/1200z 13.0n 57.0w 80 kt

120hr VT 08/1200z 14.5n 63.0w 90 kt

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