February 16, 200521 yr # Delgado is Spanish for "Slim": After a bidding war that drew in the Rangers, Orioles and Mets, Carlos Delgado is now a Florida Marlin. Though correlation does not imply causation, Delgado's four-year, $52 million deal did come just days before Miami-Dade County approved, in principle, a $420 million ballpark plan. Before anyone gets too excited, there have been agreements in principle before in the Marlins' saga, going back to Wayne Huizenga's tenure as team owner. Right now, the whole thing's contingent on getting money from the state. Since some Florida legislators want to re-name the team the Terrorists (hey, it's better than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) you'd have to think the funding isn't exactly in the bag. Stay tuned. # Nostradamus Wouldn't Stand for "God Bless America" Either: In deciding to move to South Florida rather than Flushing, N.Y., Carlos Delgado claimed--as many free agents are wont to do--that he made his decision based upon which team was most likely to go to the World Series. What kind of future does Delgado have as a player/prognosticator? Let's ask PECOTA, with first base removed from both teams' lineups to account for the Marlins' pre-Delgado state: Marlins Mets Pos. Player VORP Player VORP C LoDuca 16.3 Piazza 24.2 2B Castillo 20.3 Matsui 25.9 3B Lowell 33.0 Wright 32.4 SS Gonzalez 14.7 Reyes 12.7 LF Encarnacion 12.7 Floyd 23.1 CF Pierre 19.9 Beltran 51.6 RF Cabrera 43.0 Cameron 24.4 Hitters' Total 159.9 194.3 Carlos isn't looking too good based upon the two teams' lineups, since the Mets wallop the Fish in VORP by 34.4 runs, roughly a three-win advantage. The Mets' attack looks to be well-balanced, and if Jose Reyes is able to beat his projection, things could get interesting in Queens. Meanwhile, Juan Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez--he of the least impressive 23 homers in major league history--weigh down the Marlins' attack like a pair of concrete overshoes. What about the pitchers? SP Beckett 32.3 Martinez 53.3 SP Willis 31.2 Glavine 12.2 SP Burnett 23.3 Trachsel 9.7 SP Leiter 14.9 Benson 13.6 SP Valdez 4.7 Zambrano 4.7 RP Mota 14.8 Looper 14.9 RP Jones 8.3 DeJean 9.1 RP Bump 6.9 Bottalico 7.1 Pitchers' Total 136.4 124.6 Team's Total 296.3 318.9 The Marlins make up some of the difference on the pitching side, with Florida's young top three expected to provide more production than Pedro Martinez and a bunch of guys who are old (Tom Glavine), mediocre (Kris Benson) or hurt (Victor Zambrano). Surprisingly, Guillermo Mota is expected to be a dead ringer for Mets' closer Braden Looper, VORP-wise. Still, PECOTA gives the Mets the overall edge in the "who's more likely to go to the Series" sweepstakes. Still, there's one last factor that Delgado might've considered: 1B Delgado 42.5 Mientkiewicz 12.7 New Total 338.8 331.6 # From the Nostalgia File, Part I: In honor of BP 2005--our 10th annual, hitting the shelves in a couple of weeks--we're going to look at a few comments from a past BP on Delgado. Carlos Delgado (1999): Delgado's fast comeback was a huge surprise, and he went on to enjoy his best season yet. For sluggers, doing this at this age isn't extraordinary...Statistically, the expectation should be that he won't be much better than he's been, but I can't shake the feeling that he's going to have a better career than your typical slow slugger. Turns out that 1998 wasn't even the tip of the iceberg. Since 1999, Delgado has hit 251 homers, and been in the top 10 in OBP or slugging or both, each year. Better than your typical slow slugger, indeed. Still, Delgado would have to be an extraordinary player, indeed, to meet one of the incentives contained in his new contract. In order to guarantee a fifth year at $16 million to his contract, Delgado needs to earn 30 points, on a system where he gets 10 points for winning the League MVP down to one point for finishing 10th, 10 points for being the LCS MVP, and 20 points for winning the World Series MVP. Under this system, here are the top point-getters over the past four years: MVP WS/LCS TOTAL Albert Pujols 33 10 43 Barry Bonds 40 0 40 Manny Ramirez 17 20 37 Alex Rodriguez 24 0 24 Randy Johnson 4 20 24 David Ortiz 13 10 23 Curt Schilling 2 20 22 Troy Glaus 0 20 20 Josh Beckett 0 20 20 Lance Berkman 18 0 18 As you can see, although it's not quite Curt Schilling's "when the Red Sox win the World Series" clause, Delgado better hope the Fish make a habit of the post-season if he's to have any chance of vesting that fifth year. Over his entire career, Delgado has a total of 16 points for two top-five MVP finishes.
February 16, 200521 yr Too many damn numbers.. Are they trying to say that Carlos' addition gives the Marlins an advantage over the Mets, when they were unfavored prior to the signing/
February 17, 200521 yr These sabremetrics cats are so annoying... according to their numbers Matsui is better than Castillo and Wright is comparable to Lowell. LOL How often has BP been accurate in predicting division champs, wild cards, and world series?
February 17, 200521 yr that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever read. Is he trying to say the marlins lack speed and the mets have lots of it? Also what is VORP and PECOTA?
February 17, 200521 yr VORP-value over replacement player forgot what PECOTA stands for but its a tool used to predict future performance and also puts players numbers in historical perspective as far as what players they are similar to from the past.
February 17, 200521 yr VORP stands for value over replacement player. It's to measure the amount of runs a player would add offensively. A more informative description can be found here. While their opinion of 'replacement player' may not correspond to others (it's a bit too low for my prospect-loving tastes), it's a great stat to measure the offensive production of an individual player. Team-wise, it's not a perfect stat (OPS For-OPS Against is pretty close though), but there's been a strong correlation between winning teams having more above-average players than losing teams. PECOTA is a projection system that uses past performances and historical trends. BTW, Conine has a projected 20.7 VORP as a LF.
February 17, 200521 yr Just offense. There's too many questions surrounding the defensive side of the game. Are the stats we have adequate? How much is pitching? How much is defense? How much the ballpark and weather? How much does it really matter?
February 17, 200521 yr Well, then... if these statistics don't cover half the game... then I think it's BS to think this is anywhere near complete.
February 17, 200521 yr These sabremetrics cats are so annoying... according to their numbers Matsui is better than Castillo and Wright is comparable to Lowell. LOL How often has BP been accurate in predicting division champs, wild cards, and world series? 687636[/snapback] Everyone knows I'm not a stathead but I'm always willing to at least give their opinions on honest read, but that said they lost their credibility with me after the Castillo/Matsui thing.
February 17, 200521 yr interesting read and another perspective of the game. I enjoyed that. Nothing to swear by it, but interesting. Thanks for posting
February 17, 200521 yr These sabremetrics cats are so annoying... according to their numbers Matsui is better than Castillo and Wright is comparable to Lowell.? LOL How often has BP been accurate in predicting division champs, wild cards, and world series? 687636[/snapback] Everyone knows I'm not a stathead but I'm always willing to at least give their opinions on honest read, but that said they lost their credibility with me after the Castillo/Matsui thing. 687728[/snapback] If anything they are equal and maybe Matsui is a little better. Why is that such a bombshell?
February 17, 200521 yr Well, then... if these statistics don't cover half the game... then I think it's BS to think this is anywhere near complete. 687724[/snapback] Defense and pitching measures somewhere between 30% and 60% of the game according to some people. Where do you split it? Bill James tried 52% with some success in his Win Shares system. With a position-based stat like VORP, how do you break that down among the nine positions? Also how do you measure the defensive production of a replacement-level player? Is it simply less than league-average? If in fact a replacement-level player is supposed to be a rookie or older non-prospect as is often the case, should they not be able to make more players than your average veterans with bad knees, backs and other ailments of time? How do you factor that into the equation? Additionally, statistics show that when a league-average pitcher and defense faces a league-average batter, the pitcher and defense records an out two-thirds of the time. Unless you are willing to suggest that major league pitchers and defenders are of better stock than its batters (a suggestion that flies in the face of both fact and baseball's truisms) rather than suggest the game is tilted in their favor, it seems unfair to not adjust for that.
February 17, 200521 yr Shamrock, enlight me to why Matsui may be a little better than Castillo? 687750[/snapback] Age 28 seasons for both with Matsui posting a slightly better OPS in his first ML season. Conventional wisdom says Matsui improves (and so VORP says) on his season while Castillo would do well just to repeat. Castillo has the edge in terms of SB and defense (although GGs are overrated) as it stands.
February 17, 200521 yr Shamrock, enlight me to why Matsui may be a little better than Castillo? 687750[/snapback] Age 28 seasons for both with Matsui posting a slightly better OPS in his first ML season. Conventional wisdom says Matsui improves (and so VORP says) on his season while Castillo would do well just to repeat. Castillo has the edge in terms of SB and defense (although GGs are overrated) as it stands. 687757[/snapback] GG's are overated??? You have got to be f*cking kidding me! :lol
February 17, 200521 yr Example A: Jeter, 2004. Example B: Palmeiro, 1999. Case closed. Jury rules in favor of Shamrock.
February 17, 200521 yr Castillo is much better than Matsui for the role they play. Both bat 2nd and play 2nd... Castillo's glove is a lot better, his average was down last year but he still did better than Matsui (I predict Castillo will bounch back and hit .305-.314), he doesn't hit for as much power or doubles as Matsui, but his job is differen. For the 2 hole, Louie is ideal. He also battles the opposing pitchers and makes them work... gives his teammates a chance to look at the pitcher some more and he tires the other pitchers out. Those are things that stats simply won't show.
February 17, 200521 yr Example A: Jeter, 2004. Example B: Palmeiro, 1999. Case closed. Jury rules in favor of Shamrock. 687813[/snapback] BS...defense and pitching win championships. Ask Theo Epstein who finally put down his copy of Moneyball and realized he needed to upgrade the Sox pitiful defense. The trade of Nomar and the acquisitions of Mientkiewicz and O. Cabrera propelled them to their World Series victory. You guys have been drinking to much Sabremetrics Koolaid. case closed. :shifty
February 17, 200521 yr "A simple story, however inaccurate or misleading, is preferred to a complicated explanation, however true."
February 17, 200521 yr "A simple story, however inaccurate or misleading, is preferred to a complicated explanation, however true." 687871[/snapback] True that... wait... what are you saying? Matsui>Castillo?
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