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Stolen Bases


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Has there been any SB attempts so far? I don't think there has at all. We need to start getting JP and Loui on base so they can steal a bit. I want to see JP in his 2003 form again. :D

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I don't think we should be stealing bases, and I don't think we will se JP or Castillo going as much this year. If they are on base that means that Cabrera, Delgado, and Lowell will be up next. You don't try and steal when you have those kind of hitters behind you. JP success rate was about 66% and Castillo's is much lower. It is not worth the extra base 40 or so times for JP to lower his OBP to .340 from .372. He is essentially giving the team a free out 35% of the time he tries to steal. It's just very hard to justify trying to steal these days with the slide-step and better defensive catchers, especially considering the consequences with 3 solid hitters behind him. The only time I like trying to steal is with two outs and the bottom of the order up. But as of now, Encarnacion is the only guy at the bottom of the order with any speed.

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Ramon has thrown out 37/103 runners, or about 36% in his major league time. Since 1999, Piazza has thrown out 161/727, or 22.1% (MLB does not have his stats prior to that year). This year, 9 of 10 would-be-base-stealers have been successful. You figure we'll probably see Piazza for two of those games, so we can steal a lot of bases if we want. Unfortunately, the Marlins can't run off Leiter/Piazza anymore...

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Guest FlummoxedLummox

I don't think we should be stealing bases, and I don't think we will se JP or Castillo going as much this year. If they are on base that means that Cabrera, Delgado, and Lowell will be up next. You don't try and steal when you have those kind of hitters behind you. JP success rate was about 66% and Castillo's is much lower. It is not worth the extra base 40 or so times for JP to lower his OBP to .340 from .372. He is essentially giving the team a free out 35% of the time he tries to steal. It's just very hard to justify trying to steal these days with the slide-step and better defensive catchers, especially considering the consequences with 3 solid hitters behind him. The only time I like trying to steal is with two outs and the bottom of the order up. But as of now, Encarnacion is the only guy at the bottom of the order with any speed.

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Actually Luis has a career success rate of about 72% (271 steals out of 378 attempts). JP's success rate was 66% last year. He has the potential to steal much more efficiently. His career percentage is around 73% (210 stolen bases out of 289 attempts). You make a legitimate point concerning wasted outs, but I think the stolen base is an exciting part of baseball and would like to see it. Asking the speedy players not to steal when that is a significant part of their game is analogous to asking a power hitter not to swing for the fences when he sees a pitch he likes because he might fly out. Don't tie a player's hands. Let them play their game.

 

I like the idea of small ball: JP getting on base, stealing second, Luis advancing the runner to third on a grounder, then JP scoring from third on another productive out from Cabrera. Obviously things don't always go that smoothly, but then again sometimes the players behind him will get hits instead of productive outs. Also speed puts pressure on the pitcher, sometimes causing him to make mistakes to the hitters. All in all, I would like to see steal attempts, but I would like our guys to be selective.

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