September 1, 200323 yr We've seen it before, just not as easy to detect. Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for mid-tier reliever Heathcliff Slocumb John Smoltz for aging all-star Doyle Alexander Jeff Bagwell for Admin Anderson Will Smith, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Snare for half-season star Ugueth Urbina And finally, Denny Bautista and Don Levinski for plug-in Jeff Conine These deals are some of the worst trades in recent baseball history. They happen all the time. The truth is: the Marlins just completely screwed themselves in this deal. Jeff Conine, a 37 year old who's only gotten on base 33.8% of the time this season, and has a history of poor on-base percentages, is returning the the Marlins in return for one of the greatest pitching prospects in baseball and a decent one to boot. So why Conine? Perhaps the Marlins put way too much in getting former players to replace the bat of Mike Lowell. Let's use Clay Davenport's EqA to show us what some of the options could have been. The Marlins chose Conine over players like Reggie Sanders (who was claimed by Los Angeles,) Matt Stairs, and Abe Nu?ez among others. Let's take a look at their EqAs, shall we? Mike Lowell- .300 Reggie Sanders- .299 Jeff Conine- .285 Matt Stairs- .314 Abe Nu?ez- .318 (translates to .265 in the majors) Gerald Williams- .289 (.241) Rob Stratton- .263 (.219) Chris Donnels- .306 (.254) Matt Erickson- .310 (.258) As you can see, Conine wasn't even nearly the best option for the Marlins to trade for, but the Marlins had plenty of options in the minor leagues, and one was bound to work. What the Marlins have essentially done, is trade a great prospect, perhaps on par with the ones listed above, for an aging substitute who will most likely have an affect on them for only a month. Just one month. The Marlins should have just let it be, not trade a great future for one month of a player who still won't be able to fill in like the guy they lost. I mean, I can't understand this. The Marlins are trying to win the wild card here, they aren't a big force who happens to have another big force in their division, they are just fighting for a wild card. This deal is so foolish. To be trading a way a great future for the chance to make the playoffs. THe thing is, even if they do, they are still a long shot at the world series! This is just completely insane!
September 1, 200323 yr We've seen it before, just not as easy to detect. Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for mid-tier reliever Heathcliff Slocumb John Smoltz for aging all-star Doyle Alexander Jeff Bagwell for Admin Anderson Will Smith, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Snare for half-season star Ugueth Urbina And finally, Denny Bautista and Don Levinski for plug-in Jeff Conine Hold up. If you are going to include the 2 deals this season then you'll have to include all the prospect for vet deals that did not work out for the new owners of the prospects. Otherwise your argument is null and void.
September 1, 200323 yr Wait did't that trade for Smoltz actually work? I mean did't they win the Championship that year? I could be wrong
September 1, 200323 yr Author We've seen it before, just not as easy to detect. Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for mid-tier reliever Heathcliff Slocumb John Smoltz for aging all-star Doyle Alexander Jeff Bagwell for Admin Anderson Will Smith, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Snare for half-season star Ugueth Urbina And finally, Denny Bautista and Don Levinski for plug-in Jeff Conine Hold up. If you are going to include the 2 deals this season then you'll have to include all the prospect for vet deals that did not work out for the new owners of the prospects. Otherwise your argument is null and void. Yeah but the "new owners of the prospects" weren't losing much. Most of the time they just deal some older guy to a team, when they aren't really competing anyway. Teams that do deals like this don't lose much no matter what.
September 1, 200323 yr Author Wait did't that trade for Smoltz actually work? I mean did't they win the Championship that year? I could be wrong You, are the Twins won it all that year.
September 1, 200323 yr We've seen it before, just not as easy to detect. Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for mid-tier reliever Heathcliff Slocumb John Smoltz for aging all-star Doyle Alexander Jeff Bagwell for Admin Anderson Will Smith, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Snare for half-season star Ugueth Urbina And finally, Denny Bautista and Don Levinski for plug-in Jeff Conine Hold up. If you are going to include the 2 deals this season then you'll have to include all the prospect for vet deals that did not work out for the new owners of the prospects. Otherwise your argument is null and void. :thumbup :thumbup :thumbup
September 1, 200323 yr When I saw that we had done this deal, I was a little annoyed, to say the least. Bautista was about ready to be called up within the next year, and has been projected as a great pitcher. Levinski wasn't half-bad either. Lousy Baltimore, somehow suckering Beinfest into giving up two good prospects for an outfielder who may retire after a year or so. This deal is worse than the Urbina one, because i didn't care much for the prospects that we gave up then, because i didn't see any of them turning out to be that good. Gonzalez's numbers had been down lately. Maybe this will work out in the end if Conine plays like Barry Bonds, but I highly doubt that's going to happen.
September 1, 200323 yr Author The bottom line, people, is that the Marlins aren't serious World Series contenders, and don't even have much of a chance of getting into the playoffs this season now that their all-star 3B is hurt. Jeff Conine won't help so much that he will single handedly put the Marlins in the playoffs, where Lowell will return and lead them to a title. The Marlins had a ton of other options that would still help almost as much or maybe more than Conine would and still preserve their future with a great young pitcher.
September 1, 200323 yr Man, you are such a homer. You know that we've made a good acquisition and are getting scared of us. The truth is, we've got just as good of a chance as anyone to make the playoffs. We are the Wild-Card frontrunners. Remember last time the Marlins won the Wild-Card and were not "serious World Series contenders"? Yeah, we beat the Braves easily and went on to win it all. When was the last time the Braves even made it to the Series? Are you guys going to choke again? You should really be embarrassed to be a Braves fan. I know I would... any team that loses over and over again in the playoffs on national TV should be embarrassed.
September 1, 200323 yr The bottom line, people, is that the Marlins aren't serious World Series contenders, and don't even have much of a chance of getting into the playoffs this season now that their all-star 3B is hurt. Jeff Conine won't help so much that he will single handedly put the Marlins in the playoffs, where Lowell will return and lead them to a title. The Marlins had a ton of other options that would still help almost as much or maybe more than Conine would and still preserve their future with a great young pitcher. Seeing that you are a Braves fan, aren't you more concerned that we might get to the playoffs? If you play with us, let me tell you, that's it for your team of the 90's which becomes a little chicken when it matters the most... :w00t
September 1, 200323 yr The bottom line, people, is that the Marlins aren't serious World Series contenders Oh, and the Braves are? :whistle
September 1, 200323 yr This is the way I look at it, maybe I'm thinking too much in the present, but this is how I think anyway: We made a deal for this year. With the past history of this rebuilding process, that's not a bad thing AT ALL. We already have pitching, we're almost definitely going to lose Castillo and Lee and the simple fact is, this kind of opportunity might not present itself to this franchise for a long time. They are in a situation where a postseason run MIGHT get them a new stadium, not the promise of a couple more "shiny, new" prospects down the road. Frankly, I'm tired of prospects. There's a chance to make the playoffs here and the Marlins need to do absolutely everything in their power to make them and see what happens. I'm tired of playing for the future, wait 'til next year sucks, especially with a franchise who's financial status is always in question. The simple fact is we don't know what this team will look like next year (no matter what they say) and we also don't know how long this team could be in South Florida (I'm in Ohio, so that's not as big a factor for me, but still), so I say we take this opportunity and we run with it. Maybe those 2 pitchers we gave up will turn out to be stars and we'll miss the playoffs. But...what if we make the playoffs, make another run, and win the World Series? We certainly have the pitching to make that kind of run. So, simply put, was this a good trade in the long run? Maybe not, but with this franchise, it really doesn't matter. Plus, it's not like we just depleted the farm system. There's plenty more where that came from and we're not the Yankees, we're not going to trade them ALL away.
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