Cutler looks like top QB in draft

By Chris Mortensen

ESPN.com

 

Let's get something straight right off the mark. This is not a knock against Matt Leinart or Vince Young. This also is not a knock against my colleague and friend Mel Kiper Jr., our ESPN draft scout, who does a terrific job.

 

However, this I'm pretty sure about: Jay Cutler of Vanderbilt is the best quarterback available for the NFL draft come April.

 

I am not alone. A bunch of NFL scouts are whispering the same thing during Senior Bowl week in Mobile, Ala. Some of those even will put out some "negatives" on Cutler deliberately in hopes that he'll drop a little in the draft. It's not going to work.

 

"It's not even worth trying to downgrade the kid ... hoping he slides," one top personnel director said. "The secret is out."

 

I have felt for almost a year now that Cutler is the best quarterback prospect, and nothing has changed my mind. If anything, he has even solidified his standing now that I've had the pleasure and benefit of personally seeing him play in the Southeastern Conference.

 

Could Jay Cutler end up getting drafted before Vince Young and Matt Leinart? Cutler was the All-SEC first-team quarterback selected by coaches and the media. He was the preseason pick, too. Heck, he was a first-team All-SEC choice as a redshirt freshman.

 

You know how difficult that is when you play at Vanderbilt in a conference with many of the nation's heavyweights?

 

A scout for one of the NFL's top personnel departments supported this notion in November after he did some cross-checking on the SEC quarterbacks.

 

"It can't be fun playing quarterback in the SEC," the scout said. "I mean, most of the teams are five and six deep at cornerback -- it's not even close when you compare it to the Pac-10. The speed on defense across the SEC is ridiculous. The defensive coordinators, well, some of them should be coaching in the NFL. Some of them have, in fact. Playing quarterback in the SEC is a task. Playing it well every week is a bigger task."

 

This scout marveled at Cutler's performance with inferior personnel around him.

 

"Unbelievably competitive with the physical skills to back it up," the scout said.

 

Cutler's similarities to Brett Favre are uncanny, except Cutler is far ahead of Favre in the mental aspects of the game at the same career stage. Cutler probably has the strongest arm in this draft. He has moxie. He has a swagger. As Favre did at Southern Mississippi, Cutler had Vandy winning games it had no business winning and competing in games in which the Commodores should have been blown out. As with Favre, his gunslinger mentality will get him in the doghouse with some NFL coach but the upside is way too high to let it bring him down. Oh, he never got his team to a bowl appearance? Neither did John Elway.

 

"Jay Cutler is special, like Elway and Favre," Bus Cook said.

 

Cook is supposed to say that. He is Cutler's agent. Oh, he also represents Favre and the Titans' Steve McNair, all three of them good ol' Mississippi men. Don't ask me how Cutler joined that club -- he hails from Santa Claus, Ind. It will be Christmas for any team that lands him.

 

The Titans, picking third in the draft, could be that team -- if Cutler gets past the New Orleans Saints at No. 2. Titans general manager Floyd Reese has noted that Cutler is a blend of Leinart and Young. He's a terrific pocket passer like Leinart but with much greater arm strength. He's athletic enough to make plays out of the pocket, although Young is certainly a better athlete, just without Cutler's arm strength.

 

Arm strength is not the only measure of a quarterback, as everyone knows. But it's probably more important in today's NFL than ever before. For instance, defensive coordinators are talking about how tough it is to defend the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger because he can throw it "outside the numbers" so well, meaning he has the arm to deliver the deep outs.

 

Leinart is clearly smart. Titans offensive coordinator Norm Chow, his former USC mentor, talks glowingly of how "everything runs on time" when Leinart is behind center.

 

Yet, in today's NFL, the clock is running faster than ever once the ball is snapped. The idea that a quarterback has a chance to go through his first, second and third progressions while he drops back is basically a myth. The throwing windows are tighter than ever on about 75 percent of the passes a quarterback must deliver. The RPMs matter in a quarterback's throws. There are some doubts about the ability of Leinart and Young to throw it through those closing windows consistently.

 

Take Cutler's arm, his smarts, his moxie, his toughness and his athleticism, and you have a pretty good model quarterback. To downgrade him because you see a few errant balls during Senior Bowl week is silly because these guys are working in a strange offense with new receivers.

 

Put Cutler in USC's offense and Leinart in Vanderbilt's offense the past couple of years and imagine what would have happened.

 

True, Leinart and Young have much more notoriety and the draft projections have them as the stars of the draft, along with USC running back Reggie Bush. But that's where a lot of people in and out of the NFL go shallow.

 

Cutler was almost bypassed in college recruiting out of high school before choosing Vanderbilt. That wasn't his fault. Somebody missed. It happens a lot. As I've stated many times, the NFL spends millions of dollars on scouting and still gets it wrong more than 50 percent of the time on quarterbacks. So why would it surprise you that colleges would fare even worse?

 

One of the best players in Super Bowl XL is Seahawks linebacker Lofa Tatupu, who should have been the hands-down selection for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. You know how many Division I scholarship offers he had coming out of high school? None.

 

Yes, it's early to be talking about the draft. But it's Senior Bowl week, and I've almost never been more excited about the draft than I am about the one coming up in April. The complaint last year is that it was a weak top-10 class. This year, it's ridiculously strong. You have three quarterbacks in Cutler, Leinart and Young. You have a future Marshall Faulk type in Bush; his rushing mate LenDale White might be another Jamal Lewis. D'Brickashaw Ferguson could be a future Pro Bowl left tackle. North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams could be another Julius Peppers. Ohio State middle linebacker A.J. Hawk could be another Ray Lewis, and Maryland tight end Vernon Davis could be another Tony Gonzalez.

 

Yes, I know I'm leaving somebody out.

 

Don't be shocked if Cutler is the first quarterback taken in the draft. It's not a lock, but Leinart and Young could go behind him. Regardless, I'm not sure that's a negative on either one of those guys, anyway.

 

In Cutler, maybe we have another Favre or Elway. In Leinart, we might have another Steve Young (minus the athleticism). In Vince Young, he's not Michael Vick fast, but he is 6-5, he is competitive and he is an intriguing prospect.

 

I'd like to think that there's something for everybody, except there are always busts. I just know the one guy I'd buy stock in right now is Cutler.

Well the Fins went from possibly taking him with the 16th, to hoping he'd still be there, to possibly trading up a few picks, to having no shot whatsoever at him.

 

I find it VERY hard to believe that a QB's stock can raise from mid-to-late first round all the way to #2 pick without even playing a game.

 

That's lame.

Meh, it happened to Phillip Rivers a few years ago. It's kind of dumb but not unprecedented.

 

I don't see Cutler going #2. I could see someone trading into the Jets slot and taking him at #4, or even the Titans and Jets flip flopping with Young going to the Jets at #3 and Cutler to the Titans at #4.

 

Either way it looks very doubtful he slips by the Lions and Cardinals at 9 and 10.

Considering Norm Chow is the one working with him right now and the fact he played his college ball in the same city, I fully expect he'll be a Titan.

it happens happend to palmer, happend to rivers too.

 

shall see what happens. If matt leinart slips down to 6 (where SF might be if they win the toss) I would love to trade up there for him.

It's not lame to me that his stock is rising like this.

 

It's good to me that teams are scouting players regaardless of who was the Heisman, who played well in the Rose Bowl, etc.

Considering Norm Chow is the one working with him right now and the fact he played his college ball in the same city, I fully expect he'll be a Titan.

 

 

if Leinart's on the board I really cant see Chow passing him up

I said it after his performance against the Gators...he belongs in the same class with Leinart and Young. Great pocket presence, cannon for an arm, and his field vision was phenomenal.

 

I don't see the Lions taking a QB...so I don't think the Fins will need to worry about them.

he isnt doing too well in the senior bowl right now

remember back 2 years ago the draft was all about Eli and Phillip Rivers and look who is the most successfull out of them..... Ben Rothlisburger. Same this year its all about Leinart and Young but look out for Cutler in the NFL

he isnt doing too well in the senior bowl right now

 

I saw one drive and he looked really good except when the rush came through. He threw two tight and perfect passes to guys that flat out dropped them. His TD pass was nice. When the rush came through or when it was a screen pass, he threw too low and both balls got batted down with the potential for INT.

remember back 2 years ago the draft was all about Eli and Phillip Rivers and look who is the most successfull out of them..... Ben Rothlisburger. Same this year its all about Leinart and Young but look out for Cutler in the NFL

 

 

It's a little early to judge that draft, especially considering Phillip Rivers hasn't gotten a chance to start in the NFL yet.

I just want a QB!!!!

 

The Dolphins never try to move up in the draft or do anything drastic. I want to see something done!!!!!!!

 

This is our year. We NEED a QB right now, or it will be too late. Zach is almost out of his prime at 32, JT as well at 31.

remember back 2 years ago the draft was all about Eli and Phillip Rivers and look who is the most successfull out of them..... Ben Rothlisburger. Same this year its all about Leinart and Young but look out for Cutler in the NFL

 

 

It's a little early to judge that draft, especially considering Phillip Rivers hasn't gotten a chance to start in the NFL yet.

r

you are right but so far in their carrers Roth is #1 on that list. I know Brees is a good qb but hes certainly no manning or palmer but if Rivers was really as good as everyone thought or thinks he would have found his way into the starting role. thats just my opinion