baseballprospectus.com

If the last three weeks have taught us anything, it's that the baseball postseason is the greatest sports theatre in the world. We've seen almost every form of drama the game can provide, from game-winning home runs to stunning pitching duels to comebacks from one foot, two hands and most of a head in the grave.

 

Yesterday, we saw the Red Sox jump out to a 4-1 lead against a pitcher they shouldn't hit, then watched that edge disappear a half-hour later. On the road, deep into the recesses of their pitching staff, fighting wind and cold and history, the Sox could have called it a season and no one would have been surprised. They didn't, and thanks to some help from the twin weaknesses of the Yankees--defense and every non-cyborg reliever--they'll get the Game Seven they came to New York to play.

 

The Cubs, who could have curled up and died when Miguel Cabrera put them down 3-0 in the first inning, battled back to tie the game and then take the lead. I don't care that they lost: a team that lacks some blessed intangible doesn't even get that far, not after the events of Tuesday night.

 

The Marlins weren't supposed to contend, weren't supposed to win the Wild Card, weren't supposed to beat the Giants, weren't supposed to even come back to Chicago after being down 3-1 Saturday night... and their biggest problem this morning is that they'll have to wait until tonight to make their flight plans for the World Series. Well, that and finding a good hangover cure.

 

The resilience of the four teams that played yesterday is what impressed me most. It's games like yesterday's on which I build my argument that baseball is about performance, not some set of personal characteristics that the winning team has and the losing team doesn't. All of these guys--all of them--have overcome challenges to hold the jobs they hold, and they're all capable of succeeding or failing in high-profile situations. The outcomes are zero-sum, but the pool of whatever the catchphrase is these days that means "better people" absolutely isn't.

 

It's about performance, and we've seen performances the last three weeks that will stick in our minds forever. The Red Sox bullpen, derided all season as a greater fire hazard than Beavis, has been the team's MVP in the postseason, and that's after tying one Byung-Hyun Kim behind its back. Josh Beckett threw 13 of the Marlins' last 27 innings in the NLCS, allowing one run on three hits. Ivan Rodriguez may be having the greatest postseason in baseball history by a player not named Bonds, and making himself about $30 million by doing so. Somehow, I don't think he'll sign a one-year deal this winter.

 

The playoffs have left some fans speechless, some breathless, and some hopeless. They've showcased baseball's best, brightest, youngest and oldest, and they've served as a two-week advertisement for the greatest game in the world.

 

Just after Johnny Damon squeezed the final out of Game Six, my cell phone rang. It was one of my best friends, a Boston native who loves his Sox the same way I love my Yankees. He didn't call to gloat, just to talk about the amazing game and the prospect of a Game Seven in the sport's cathedral matching up two of the best pitchers ever. I don't talk to Matt enough, and a great thing about these last two weeks is that we've touched base on a regular basis to pick apart the games and talk a little trash.

 

I was thinking about that phone call four hours later as the image of an woman wiping tears from her eyes filled my television screen. She was in her 60s, I'd say, and she wasn't misty; she was crying, eyes reddened beneath a Cubs hat, heart breaking again, no doubt, just as it did in '89 and '84 and '69 and maybe even '45.

 

Baseball can bring friends back together, and it can make an old woman cry.

 

Damn, I'm lucky to love it.

 

Notes

 

On to the analysis. Let's start with the game I can be rational about.

 

* Miguel Cabrera is good. His three-run bomb off of Kerry Wood could have buried the Cubs, and even though it didn't, it did something better: provided the winning margin.

 

Think about this for a second: at the age of 20, Cabrera has undergone a position shift and been asked to assume the cleanup spot in his team's lineup, during the League Championship Series. Sure, maybe switching outfield corners isn't that big a deal--although Cabrera has been an outfielder for about five months--and not all players care about where they hit in the lineup. It's still an amazing display of confidence by Jack McKeon in what this player can do.

 

Cabrera is still raw. He needs to work on his plate discipline and pitch recognition, and he'd be most valuable back at either shortstop or second base. Regardless, his postseason performance brands him as perhaps the best under-22 player in the National League, a hitter capable of becoming Albert Pujols before you know what happened.

 

* Mark Redman didn't have it last night, and he paid the price. Honestly, though, on the list of bad baseball crimes, yielding a two-out, two-strike, game-tying homer to the opposing pitcher is a Class-A felony. Did you see Kerry Wood's reaction? I've never seen a pitcher watch his own homer before; for a second, I thought he was going to hop, a la his right fielder.

 

Maybe we shouldn't have been surprised. Wood is probably the eighth- or ninth-best hitter the Cubs have.

 

* Josh Beckett was the story of the night. He didn't have anything close to the stuff he had Sunday, and he gave up a handful of scary fly balls, but four one-hit innings in a Game Seven on two days' rest is amazing.

 

How do you evaluate the decision to use him, though? I lost an inning tossing this around in my head, and I got no closer to an answer. Beckett, of course, is 23 and was coming off a 115-pitch start. However, it was his day to throw, so it wouldn't be that unheard of to squeeze him into the game for a bit. On the other hand, Beckett isn't used to this kind of handling, or for that matter, coming out of the bullpen at all. Then again, it's the most important game of his career, and flags fly forever.

 

Throw in some profanity and a Bailey's rocks and you have a sense of what that half-hour was like for me.

 

I figure that if I can't make up my own mind about someone's decision, then it's hard for me to argue with it. McKeon got four innings out of Beckett, who threw just 45 pitches, every one of them from the windup. Here's hoping that there are no repercussions, and that the Marlins make a move towards holding Beckett back for Game Three of the World Series.

 

It took Jack McKeon about six minutes to figure out what some managers have never gotten. The postseason is a completely different game, and you have to treat it as such. I could go on about McKeon, but Rany Jazayerli has already done it much better than I would have.

 

* I won't have Dusty Baker to kick around anymore, but he left me some parting gifts. Most notable was that he played the infield back in the fifth inning with the game tied at five, second and third and one out. Granted that it's just the fifth, but the Marlins had Beckett ready to enter, which seemed to add to the urgency of the moment. Conceding the go-ahead run says to me that you think you can get two runs, but you're afraid that you can't get the three you risk needing if a single gets through the infield. I don't understand it.

 

Cabrera grounded home the go-ahead run, and the Marlins had a lead they would not relinquish.

 

I know I'm dealing with the Teflon manager here, but it would really be nice to see someone, somewhere, acknowledge that Baker had an awful series, and in particular, an awful two games in Chicago. Maybe it started with leaving Mark Prior in to protect an 11-run lead, or in eschewing Hee Seop Choi in favor of Juan Cruz, a decision that haunted him in the three close games the Cubs' lost. Maybe it was his insistence on treating two distinctly non-specialist left-handed relievers like specialists all year, and not letting them grab the bigger roles they deserved. Maybe it was casting his lineup in the mold that suited him best, even if it cost the Cubs runs.

 

Wherever it started, it ended last night shy of the goal. The Cubs will never get this close again with Baker as their manager.

 

* Let me ask one more philosophical question. If veteran experience is so paramount, the key element to every winning team, how could a team that has so much of it pull off a two-game losing streak at home with its best pitchers on the mound and the lead in both games? If having all those mediocre veterans on the roster isn't so that you either don't blow a three-run lead in the eighth or that if you blow it, you can come back and win the next game, what the hell are they doing there?

 

It couldn't be that performance matters more than service time, could it?

 

* The Marlins may have to endure some sniping about the fact that they are again a wild-card team in the World Series. Ignore it; the rules are what they are, and while I dislike the wild card and what it does to the regular season, the fact that the Marlins advanced in that slot does nothing to cheapen their accomplishments since.

 

* Regardless of which team comes out of the American League, I think the Marlins should open the Series with Dontrelle Willis. No Yankees or Red Sox have seen his motion, and the Sox in particular are vulnerable to lefties; the Yankees have some players who might have trouble with Willis' delivery.

 

After that, I'd come back with Carl Pavano in Game Two and Beckett in Game Three on a well-deserved six days' rest. I respect his ability as well as his desire to pitch, but the Marlins have an obligation to not Jaret Wright him. Mark Redman starts Game Four ahead of Brad Penny.

cabs at second? i dont think so. good points on the bad managing of dusty baker and good managing of jack.

after what i have seen from Cabs, i dont doub it for a second

GREAT article.

why u so infatuated with prospectus? might as well say he can play catcher, 1b and will switch hit next year as well. baseball propectus is a load of crap. they just say outragus things to get attention because they are crap. they are imitation baseball america. just read baseball america ramp.

wild card and some of the colunist here got more of a clue than these writers at bb prospectus. they dont know jack. they just make up stuff like they did with the selig and rose thing. they just want attention.

 

cabrera would definatly be the BIGGEST 2nd baseman ive seen in a long time lol. what crap

why is it that Cabs would be "more valuable" at SS or 2B? I'm not sure I follow his point. He's a better player at short or second than in right or at third? His offense is the same regardless of where he plays, & I haven't seen him struggle anywhere in the field at all. I'd like to see him at short I guess ideally....

 

I guess he's saying since 2B & SS are not positions you expect much offense from, he'd be in the elite? Just seemed a strange comment...

i really think you may see cabs back at short in the spring.

 

 

 

that is an interesting rotation for the series....

 

 

 

that would set you up for josh for our first game at home....

 

 

and then in a potential game 7.

 

 

coudl be worse.

why u so infatuated with prospectus? might as well say he can play catcher, 1b and will switch hit next year as well. baseball propectus is a load of crap. they just say outragus things to get attention because they are crap. they are imitation baseball america. just read baseball america ramp.

yea, i guess i should take advice from someone named pubes and not post anything anymore

good stuff. why is it that Cabs would be "more valuable" at SS or 2B? I'm not sure I follow his point. He's a better player at short or second than in right or at third?

 

I guess he's saying since 2B & SS are not positions you expect much offense from, he'd be in the elite? Just seemed a strange comment...

because the guy who wrote the article is some joe schmo that plays fantasy baseball. the only way hes more valuable at SS or 2nd is on a fantasy team. baseball prospctus is a load of crap. the just copy baseball america and follow stats along with make up total BS . id rather read lebatard all day long

why u so infatuated with prospectus? might as well say he can play catcher, 1b and will switch hit next year as well. baseball propectus is a load of crap. they just say outragus things to get attention because they are crap. they are imitation baseball america. just read baseball america ramp.

yea, i guess i should take advice from someone named pubes and not post anything anymore im just saying.. you see m to spend some time reading up all the stuff on that site. i kinda feel like ur getting suckered and wanted to warn everybody to not waste their time in that site. the guy that own that site is just like Admin (but this site is wayy better) but with 20 yr old wannabe scouts to write the articles that just watch tv and look up stats and copy baseball america.

well i like the site.... sorry.... and Cabrera is 10x more valuable at SS than the OF.... no many big hitters at SS

exactly what ramp just said.

 

 

 

there are few and far power hitting 2b/ss in this league.

 

 

hence him being more valuable.

yes but no matter where you put him he will produce the same in hitting. it has nothing to do with his value as a player. value dont decrease or increase because hes a SS or 2nd base or OF

Wrong Pubes, and I will tell you why. Cabs is more valuable at SS because of his offense, which replaces Sea Bass, and you can go out and sign a guy like Vlad to play RF, move Encarnacion to LF, or keep Lee at 1B and keep Conine in LF - whatever. What happens is your offense gets more potent and your defense does not slip that much. Cabs may not be a Gold glover at SS, but he will get the job done and that is his natural position. I think that is a damn smart move and gives the Marlins a lot of flexibility in keeping Lowell's bat in the game along with Cabs - which you have seen what happens. We have scored 8 runs in Game 6. 9 in Game 7. Imagine if we played Enc in RF, Conine in LF, Lowell at 3B and Manchild (Cabs) at SS - right now. Our offense would be very, very tough to beat with ANY pitcher on the mound.

 

so it is a good idea - no matter who said it. And so Baseball prospectus isnt Baseball America, ESPN, etc. But NONE of those publications, 'experts' actually picked the Marlins to even get anywhere NEAR where they are now. So stop being a snob...

power hitting shortstops = more money than power hitting outfielders all things being equal.

ok well lets see how a 6-2 guy with huge arms and no speed does at a MI position. can you say tony batista?

speed means nothing with playing defense at short.

 

 

 

remind me how 'fast' cal ripken jr was again......

ok quickness. same stuff. the guy is huge and will get huge er. which i hope he does! imagine all the homers! he wont last long in the SS or 2nd. Arod and the other big SS like renteria are flexible and lean. cabrera will not last there

i dunno about Cabs..... he's got some sweet hands & he moves very smoothly. he's looked fine at 3rd & obviously has the strong arm. He doesn't have the quickness of a great shortstop, but if you can hit like him, you could deal with even mediocre defense. I don't know why Cabs doesn't get more comparisons to ARod actually. Remind me a lot of him. Built more like ARod than Pujols...

 

I'm sure they'd take a long look at him at short before they made a long-term decision on it. Sea Bass is up for arbitration next year & they have to decide whether he's worth the 3 mill or whatever he'll want.

arod actually fields pretty sweet. his % is among the best evry yr.

ok quickness. same stuff.

not even close to being the same thing.

 

 

 

lowell is 'quick' around third in his first step and his reactions.

 

 

but he is slower than molasses.

 

 

 

before you talk...get a clue.

i meant same stuff as in he wont last long not same as in speed. my bad

Das and Pubes, I think you are both missing something here. It is about positioning. With Perry Hill, one of the better fielding coaches in baseball, Cabrera could learn how to position himself to make the plays. You cant tell me that the Cubs' A Gon is that much faster than Cabs - and he is a pretty good fielder at that position. Heck, our own A Gon isnt that fast either...

 

Oh, and Pubes, Manchild better not get big, he better just get stronger. Guys who put on too much weight have problems staying healthy. He has got all the tools, he just needs to sharpen them and learn as he goes along.

BaseballProspectus.com is the best place to read articles on opinions of experts. I hope to get a subscription there sometime...