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Bill James 2008 Projections


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Bill James has come out with his projections for the 2008 season. Figured I would post them with some thoughts. Warning, some of this will be too hot for you to handle.

 

The Fab 5 (+Cabs)

 

Hanley Ramirez: .314/.374/.526 22hr 44sb

Dan Uggla: .268/.344/.495 28hr

Josh Willingham: .277/.372/.493 24hr

Mike Jacobs: .279/.336/.499 24hr

Jeremy Hermida: .287/.384/.490 21hr

Miguel Cabrera: .327/.411/.579 35hr

 

I figure those are the 5 that are more than likely in our lineup next year. James has Uggla, Hammer, and Jake all improve on OPS with Hanley on a slight decline and Hermida a slight incline. That is a freakin stacked 5 hitters right there and two questions mainly come to mind. Can Hammer remember how to hit lefties like he has throughout his career (besides 2007)? And can Mike Jacobs contine to hit lefties, when before this year he couldn't hit them? Two huge questions that can turn those players from solid guys, to upper echelon level.

 

Maybe Marlins?

 

Matt Kemp: .322/.365/.508 16hr 24sb

Andy Laroche: .275/.367/.458 19hr

Howie Kendrick: .319/.342/.482 12hr

Jeff Mathis: .238/.291/.374 3hr

Reggie Willits: .290/.388/.352

 

Obviously adding those 2 Dodgers to our lineup makes our 1-7 very powerful. Kendrick is a pretty cool 2 hitter and I share the same feelings with James on Mathis. Just don't know if he will make it back to prospect stardom. Reggie Willits is cool, but man I still want that Dodgers package.

 

The Starting 5

 

Dontrelle Willis: 12-11, 4.22era, 209ip, 73bb 153k

Scott Olsen: 8-11, 4.96era, 165ip, 74bb 149k

Sergio Mitre: 8-10, 4.96era, 165ip, 55bb 103k

 

There were no projections for Ricky Nolasco or Rick Vandenhurk. Obviously that means they are gonna be so awesome and their numbers will be off the charts. Same can be said for Marlins rookies like Chris Volstad and Gaby Hernandez.

 

The Pen

 

Matt Lindstrom: 3-5, 5.13era, 72ip, 35bb 67k

Kevin Gregg: 5-4, 4.00era, 81ip, 31bb 75k

Lee Gardner: 5-4, 3.84era, 75ip, 21bb 51k

Justin Miller: 3-4, 5.01era, 70ip, 35bb 64k

Taylor Tankersley: 3-3, 3.81era, 52ip, 32bb 59k

Renyel Pinto: 3-4, 4.57era, 65ip, 40bb 66k

 

Not too kind to Justin Miller, Reynel Pinto and Matt Lindstrom. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Miller go back to the pitcher he used to be or to see Lindstrom's secondary pitches not evolve. I'd expect Pinto to pitch better, but with ERA you never know. Two bad outings can skew everything.

 

All in all, a fun little thing to look at as we get closer to the Rule V Draft and the Winter Meetings.

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You know, with the signing of Torii Hunter, I wonder if we could grab Willits and a non-Cabrera deal (though I have no clue what we would send since we match up rather poorly. Andino?!? I'm genious). Then having Kemp and Hermida at the corner spots, Hammer at first, plus LaRoche....man I would cream over that 1-7. I would be OK with us throwing money away on Torrealba if Beinfest could make that happen.

 

I mean, even if Jake hits those numbers, which is a big if, that's still just a .835 OPS from your firstbaseman, plus one of the worst defensive 1b in the MLB...I just don't like Jake anymore.

 

Kinda surprised he has Kendrick at such a low BAA though.

 

But yeah Miller's gonna get lit up next year most likely...had unsustainable H/9 (7.74), HR/9 (0.73), and K/9 (10.80) considering my perception of his skill level. I think he'll be a bit better than James projects though, probably more of a 4.50 ERA pitcher. Throughout his career, minor and major, he has been a better reliever than a SP, so, yeah.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Gardner could do something around that...he really has had a successful proffesional career up to this point, and I'm sure just never got the chance to put it on the major league level (until this year) because he tops out at 50.

 

Really wish we would sell high, though.

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I don't understand how he has HanRam declining and everyone else improving?

It wouldn't be far-fetched to see Hanley slow down a bit.... and going from a .948 to .900ops isn't a shonda

 

Do you mean "schande" (the German/Yiddish term for "disgrace or shame")?

yep, figured peeps would know what I was talking about if I spelled it phonetically

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The Lindstrom prediction is awfully harsh, especially since I thought his slider was coming along quite nicely last year. With Lindstrom, what I worry about is an injury this year, given how much work he got.

 

I wouldn't be suprised to see Gardner fare even worse than predicted, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

I do not think Hermida will have an OBP 100 points above his average next season, although I'm sure he'll still have a very good OBP. When Hermida started turning things around, he actually walked less because he became more aggressive at the plate and it served him well. In the first part of the season, it would often seem that he was too patient at the plate and fall behind in the count too often.

 

If Jake lives up to his prediction, that will be a nice year for him. I have not written him off yet. You cannot discount the lingering impact of a hand injury for a hitter. It's more a matter of him having a completely healthy year. That team-record breaking slump just killed his average, but went on a nice tear after that to get his average up around .280 but then suffered another bad slump to end the year. I do think he is fully capable of hitting for a better average than he has the past two seasons and I believe he was projected to hit for a decent average precisely because he could hit to the opposite field.

 

I do not think we have to worry too much about Hammer's ability to hit lefties. If anything, last year was a small sample size abberation.

 

I am afraid that Uggla's prediction prediction, especially the average, might be a bit optimistic considering that he will not have the same protection in the line-up next season.

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