July 4, 200818 yr Have we become so jaded in South Florida? I can't believe no one has started a thread about this yet. Anyway- I'm off to Publix to buy out their supply of water, Fruit Loops and Progresso soups.
July 4, 200818 yr I just came looking for it expecting to see Beinfest posting map after map. I'll give it a shot Right now it looks to be headed north, but just remember how andrew leveled out. I'm no cape, but I do remember the high around florida, so if this gets far enough west and slips under it, it could be game time.
July 4, 200818 yr Bertha last 7 nhc tracks http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graph...2/loop_5W.shtml Notice the track keep's moving south and west
July 4, 200818 yr Always a good idea to be hurricane prepared, and one can never have enough water, froot loops, or progresso soup......but I wouldn't be too worried about this one. Bertha needs to walk a thin tightrope between staying weak enough to avoid the Northern influence BEFORE reaching the Islands, and then stengthening at the exact right time to fend off the shear. Even if she does manage to do this, there's a couple of troughs due to come down that will deflect Bertha north of Florida. Climatologically, the waters are also just not warm enough for a severe hurricane in the region of the Atlantic that she'd be traversing.
July 5, 200818 yr Author Always a good idea to be hurricane prepared, and one can never have enough water, froot loops, or progresso soup......but I wouldn't be too worried about this one. Bertha needs to walk a thin tightrope between staying weak enough to avoid the Northern influence BEFORE reaching the Islands, and then stengthening at the exact right time to fend off the shear. Even if she does manage to do this, there's a couple of troughs due to come down that will deflect Bertha north of Florida. Climatologically, the waters are also just not warm enough for a severe hurricane in the region of the Atlantic that she'd be traversing. The forecast track does seem to be moving more southward than it did this afternoon. Pierremvp1- I've lived in South Florida all my life and seen hurricanes since 1958. I joke around but am fully prepared usually before most people. I have 6 people to worry about, including an elderly father and an elderly aunt. Plus 3 cats and 1 dog. My husband works for FIU Police Dept and is considered essential personnel. FIU is a shelter for the Keys. We have been in the situation where he has been called to 12 and 24 hour shifts. So, once that happens, we must be prepared at home so his mind is clear to focus on his job.
July 5, 200818 yr Always a good idea to be hurricane prepared, and one can never have enough water, froot loops, or progresso soup......but I wouldn't be too worried about this one. Bertha needs to walk a thin tightrope between staying weak enough to avoid the Northern influence BEFORE reaching the Islands, and then stengthening at the exact right time to fend off the shear. Even if she does manage to do this, there's a couple of troughs due to come down that will deflect Bertha north of Florida. Climatologically, the waters are also just not warm enough for a severe hurricane in the region of the Atlantic that she'd be traversing. The forecast track does seem to be moving more southward than it did this afternoon. Pierremvp1- I've lived in South Florida all my life and seen hurricanes since 1958. I joke around but am fully prepared usually before most people. I have 6 people to worry about, including an elderly father and an elderly aunt. Plus 3 cats and 1 dog. My husband works for FIU Police Dept and is considered essential personnel. FIU is a shelter for the Keys. We have been in the situation where he has been called to 12 and 24 hour shifts. So, once that happens, we must be prepared at home so his mind is clear to focus on his job. yenta....if I could take my reference to you away I would. I meant no offense...you I know would be hurricane prepared. Misplaced attempt at humor and some extra holiday cheer are to blame.
July 5, 200818 yr Author Always a good idea to be hurricane prepared, and one can never have enough water, froot loops, or progresso soup......but I wouldn't be too worried about this one. Bertha needs to walk a thin tightrope between staying weak enough to avoid the Northern influence BEFORE reaching the Islands, and then stengthening at the exact right time to fend off the shear. Even if she does manage to do this, there's a couple of troughs due to come down that will deflect Bertha north of Florida. Climatologically, the waters are also just not warm enough for a severe hurricane in the region of the Atlantic that she'd be traversing. The forecast track does seem to be moving more southward than it did this afternoon. Pierremvp1- I've lived in South Florida all my life and seen hurricanes since 1958. I joke around but am fully prepared usually before most people. I have 6 people to worry about, including an elderly father and an elderly aunt. Plus 3 cats and 1 dog. My husband works for FIU Police Dept and is considered essential personnel. FIU is a shelter for the Keys. We have been in the situation where he has been called to 12 and 24 hour shifts. So, once that happens, we must be prepared at home so his mind is clear to focus on his job. yenta....if I could take my reference to you away I would. I meant no offense...you I know would be hurricane prepared. Misplaced attempt at humor and some extra holiday cheer are to blame. No problem, Dahlink! :thumbup When you're dealing with someone who, in all likelyhood, will be called away before the storm actually hits and won't be back until well after it is gone, I have to keep on top of things. Thank goodness my son & daughter have gone through the drill so many times, they could probably recite the list by now. I was looking at the latest loop and noticed: 1) It is moving a lot faster than yesterday. 21 mph is a nice little clip. 2) What seemed to be a northward trend has now disappeared. It seems to be moving more westward than north. It's still many, many days away. I estimate it really won't be imminent until the later part of next week; Thursday or Friday. We'll know more on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ironically, we just paid someone to pressure clean our house & roof. I guess we might be getting a second job done for free!!
July 5, 200818 yr *11 am Update* Statement as of 11:00 am AST on July 05, 2008 ...Bertha moving quickly westward over the tropical Atlantic... at 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 16.6 north...longitude 37.3 west or about 885 miles...1420 km...west of the Cape Verde Islands and about 1705 miles...2740 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands. Bertha is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Bertha will be about Half Way between the West Coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles by tonight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today...but gradual strengthening is possible on Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches. Repeating the 1100 am AST position...16.6 N...37.3 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
July 5, 200818 yr oy! I'm in Albuquerque right now until Friday...please don't hit...I want to enjoy the full lenght of my vacation
July 5, 200818 yr Nice, Im going on vacation somwhere in Florida late next week. I hope this doesent affect me.
July 5, 200818 yr Author If it stays a tropical storm, all we'll get is some wind and rain. But, they do expect it to strengthen gradually tomorrow. It's a wait and see game now.
July 5, 200818 yr HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION TS BERTHA FORECAST TO BECOME HURRICANE MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
July 6, 200818 yr HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION TS BERTHA FORECAST TO BECOME HURRICANE MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html f***!
July 6, 200818 yr Wonderful, im supposed to fly out to New York Saturday night, wonder if I will still be able to!
July 7, 200818 yr Wonderful, im supposed to fly out to New York Saturday night, wonder if I will still be able to! As long as youre not stopping in Bermuda, youll be fine
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