A lot of people, myself include, have talked about trading gregg to conserve money to spend else where.

 

the thing is, next season ('09) is his last season under club control. Then he is a free agent.

 

If he is what he's been, he'll be a Type A FA.

 

Meaning we'll would get two draft picks for him.

 

In other words, the questions become

 

1) Can we get equal/better of two draft picks in a trade

 

2) If we can't, do you eat the, like, 4-5m he'll make next year just for the draft picks, or do we need that money to spend elsewhere (obviously, something that won't be seen until other moves are made)

 

3) Do you also take all the risks that comes with banking on him become a type A (i.e., if he becomes injured, if he just doesn't pitch aswell, expecially if he loses the closers role)

 

4) Do we even offer him arbitration after next season? I don't know if this management has ever offered a reliever arbitration when that player is FA-able

 

5) will our bullpen even be good enough w/o him? I think we should be fine, but I mean, we realy overestimated our bullpen for this season. And losing gregg next year would hurt it even more. And if we're still competiting, we need a bullpen. Keeping gregg for that extra year could help groom tucker and dlc for '10 to shore up that bullpen.

 

moreso just thinking aloud, because this is so far in the future it even worth that much of a discussion now. but I figured I'd post, see peoples thoughts.

I think it is exactly how you put it: Does a good enough trade come along that equals or is at least close to two high draft picks? You are also taking some risk in assuming he will have another stellar season.

 

On paper his spot might not be as easy to replace as others, but we always somehow seem to find a guy capable of closing in Miami for cheap. Either way..it is going to be a fun off season.

Should the Marlins go down this road I think it's less important to quantify a number - two high draft picks - the example being used here, than it is to acquire talent the team needs to improve itself.

 

If Gregg is traded in the off-season I don't care who we get or how many players are involved so long as the 2009 Marlins are considered a better team than we're fielding now because of it. There's going to be any number of moves made this off-season so looking at one player in a vacuum makes little sense at least to me.

Interesting, but I would say at best this is bargaining posture to another team. Hey you are giving us awesome prospect, but you are probably getting a Type A if you let him get 30 saves so you'll recoup your loss. (This is exactly what the DBacks are doing with Dunn and why they sold the whole farm for their 2008 trade acquisitions). There is real value in his FA potential, and we can still get to it without paying him that $4-5 million next year.

 

But really, it comes down to our payroll limitations. I like how you suggest Gregg protects a Tucker or Cruz, which he certainly would, but if we have X dollars to spend and our other losses would be say Cantu and Cody, versus keeping Gregg (I'm under the impression payroll is basically locked because of Hanley, our cost controlled players, and the logical inference the team will keep Nolasco, Johnson, Uggla, and Hermida. The 'extra money' there is to spend, to around the $35mil threshold, only supports basically 1-2 of the Cantu, Cody, Gregg, Jacobs, Willingham, and Treaner family, which says to me the team is going to have to pick and choose which of them to keep and for what reasons. Which way the organization goes, I don't know. Just musing on a random scenario here), I think it's a much better idea to protect Gaby Sanchez, Cameron Maybin, and to an extent Dallas McPherson (and John Raynor?), then to shelter a few RP who can realistically be protected by the next Gardner/J. Miller/Waecther/Nelson which Beinfest recently has a knack for discovering. I don't think we can luck into another 1B/3B, 500+ PA, .800+ OPS, like we did with Cantu, and he "protects" two slots in the infield. I don't see another "Cantu" like player in FA this year besides maybe Rich Aurilla and Morgan Ensberg, and good luck with those. Even the CF look weak with Rocco (probably will have a solid market for him though) and Payton as the best FA Cody replacements. I'd rather stick with what we know and get the freebie HR production.

 

You get my drift. I think getting an advanced AA/AAA/MLB prospect (if not more) is worth more than $4-5 million for Gregg's 2009 salary, 2 top 40 draft picks (and the additional signing bonus money (millions) with those 2 draft picks), and not being able to retain some of the current position player starters to protect Maybin, Gaby, Dallas, Raynor, Coghlan, etc versus protecting Tucker, Cruz, Martinez, Vanden Hurk, etc in RP roles. Money is better spent elsewhere for better purposes.

As people have said...it all depends what we could get for him, this offseason.