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You think the markets look bad now?


The_Godfather
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Looks like things are about to get worse on the market. Even though I don't drink the Kool-Aid they normally dish out on a consistent basis, I still usually have CNBC on in the background while working, and a lot of the people on the floor today were predicting a market meltdown next week. Why? Hedge funds. When 1 hedge fund fails, it can be a disaster for the entire market. If you're not familiar with Hedge Funds, basically they are like mutual funds but for the uber rich. You have to a minimum of $10mm to invest in one and they pool together these uber rich into pools to try to manipulate the stock market.

 

It gets very technical, but basically they cannot have losses over a certain % point, or they are forced to sell assets back into a pool that other hedge funds managers know they have to sell...so they short the stock causing panic. That's what happens when one fund fails. Here is a wikipedia entry on one of these failures - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

 

Anyways...the point is that the word on the street right now is that hundreds of hedge funds are going to fail next week, causing either A. catastrophic losses or B. the unprecedented possibility that the markets shut down for weeks on end. Here's an excerpt from one such person making this prediction -

 

Former Clinton economic adviser Nouriel Roubini says hundreds of hedge funds will fail and that policymakers might have to shut down financial markets for a week or more in response.

 

"We've reached a situation of sheer panic. There will be massive dumping of assets," and "hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust," said Roubini, a New York University professor. He was speaking to attendees at a hedge fund conference in London.

 

He told the Telegraph that 25 percent to 30 percent of the world's 8,000 hedge funds will disappear "in a Darwinian process," either by going bust or deciding that meager profits are not worth the effort.

 

"This will go down in the history books as one of the greatest fiascos of banking in 100 years. There needs to be some scapegoats, and the regulators are going to go hunt people. That will be good in the long run," Roman said.

 

http://money.newsmax.com/streettalk/nourie...omo_code=6E10-1

 

A washout might be good right now though, we could possibly see a true bottom. I'm making this thread in hopes that come Monday - Tuesday next week the markets are just fine and we can look back and say blah...what a bunch of nonsense this was! Obviously no one knows what will happen with the markets, but all signs are pointing the wrong way right now.

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You know- a good friend asked me when I thought things would get better. I responded, "Not for the next 5-10 years" and I seriously believe that. To get back or anywhere near where we were isn't going to happen overnight.

 

I wouldn't invest in the stock market- to volitale. But land- that's not going anywhere. If I had the money to invest in property and had the time to sit on that investment, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

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More pain. The last 26 trading days the S&P has lost 33%.

 

 

It looked like the Markets might just trade even today, no buyers but no major sell offs, then bam...literally 15 minutes before the close all the sellers come. S&P finished down more than 3%...Tomorrow should be fascinating; does the sell off continue?

 

best case scenario will be for the dow to go down in the morning and test the previous low of 7,882, and then rebound in the afternoon. that could be a good technical sign that a short term bottom has been reached. I'm not positive on this happening

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The market is a balance of greed and fear, and there is far more fear than greed. Once the election is over it will rebound a bit because some people will be happy and others will be resigned to the result, but that won't last. If Obama does even 10% of what he's talked about, this market will not recover in any permanent way in a decade. If McCain is in, housing will continue to ass-ravage the market, but we will see a recovery in about 2-3 years due to the natural business cycle but it will not reach the high-times of the 80s, 90s, and earlier this decade.

 

There needs to be a fundamental change to the way we do business, issue credit, and collect taxes for this country to regain the kind of vitality that the American people can generate.

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The market is a balance of greed and fear, and there is far more fear than greed. Once the election is over it will rebound a bit because some people will be happy and others will be resigned to the result, but that won't last. If Obama does even 10% of what he's talked about, this market will not recover in any permanent way in a decade. If McCain is in, housing will continue to ass-ravage the market, but we will see a recovery in about 2-3 years due to the natural business cycle but it will not reach the high-times of the 80s, 90s, and earlier this decade.

 

There needs to be a fundamental change to the way we do business, issue credit, and collect taxes for this country to regain the kind of vitality that the American people can generate.

I'm not voting for either of them, but seeing as how McCain's less-balanced budget will require more deficit spending and more inflation, I don't think he would give the economy anything better than Obama would. It's not like McCain understands the economy anyway.

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The market is a balance of greed and fear, and there is far more fear than greed. Once the election is over it will rebound a bit because some people will be happy and others will be resigned to the result, but that won't last. If Obama does even 10% of what he's talked about, this market will not recover in any permanent way in a decade. If McCain is in, housing will continue to ass-ravage the market, but we will see a recovery in about 2-3 years due to the natural business cycle but it will not reach the high-times of the 80s, 90s, and earlier this decade.

 

There needs to be a fundamental change to the way we do business, issue credit, and collect taxes for this country to regain the kind of vitality that the American people can generate.

 

Jim Cramer doesn't agree with you.

http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/51007/

 

Here's the money quote from that article: "And while any president will be an improvement over the current one, there is a growing belief on Wall Street that Barack Obama has the capacity to lead us out of this wilderness while John McCain does not. I?ll go a step further: Obama is a recession. McCain is a depression."

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FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET FREE MARKET WTF THERES NO MONEY WE NEED THE GUBMINT TO BAILL US OUT

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:lol

 

Good summary of what happened. :thumbup

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Post of the year?

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http://www.marlinsbaseball.com/forums/inde...showtopic=86190

 

:rolleyes:

hmm the repeal of the ban on banks selling bad mortgages while the regulators werent making sure the banks werent giving loans to irresponsible people while the banks had their friends on the SEC rate the bad mortgages as AAA is in no way a flaw of the free market goddam its amazing how much mental gymnastics you must have to do on a daily basis

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