Jump to content


Informative and Fun Activity


knglover
 Share

Recommended Posts

I was wondering if anyone out there would be willing to start a quick rolling tab of what payroll is looking like and what we might be lokking at as far as potential free agent pickups i.e. what we might be able to afford based on a rolling tab of money to spend. The following factors would have to taken into consideration:

 

1. That the Payroll for the team will be 38-40 million dollar range(based on published reports)

2. We aren't doing what ifs here, all i am looking for is basically a rolling tab of money to spend.

3. We use our best estimates on what our current players will be making next year. (obviously a large chunk of possible payroll was taken out of the equation by trading Jake)

4. We have fun with this and try not to argue over arbitrary things like whether we think someone will be back. I don't care if Gregg and whoever else are supposed to be traded, lets keep the numbers in line as if they are going to be until the aren't

5. That we start it as of yesterday and account for the money Jake would have gotten and show the difference today as he is gone.

 

The purpose for this is to see if there could possibly be enough money to acquire someone we arent expecting and to also keep a rolling tab on how things shake out with payroll. I would do this myself but there are certainly more knowledgable people out there that can do a better job and would, frankly, enjoy doing it more than me. Have fun guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


I was wondering if anyone out there would be willing to start a quick rolling tab of what payroll is looking like and what we might be lokking at as far as potential free agent pickups i.e. what we might be able to afford based on a rolling tab of money to spend. The following factors would have to taken into consideration:

 

1. That the Payroll for the team will be 38-40 million dollar range(based on published reports)

2. We aren't doing what ifs here, all i am looking for is basically a rolling tab of money to spend.

3. We use our best estimates on what our current players will be making next year. (obviously a large chunk of possible payroll was taken out of the equation by trading Jake)

4. We have fun with this and try not to argue over arbitrary things like whether we think someone will be back. I don't care if Gregg and whoever else are supposed to be traded, lets keep the numbers in line as if they are going to be until the aren't

5. That we start it as of yesterday and account for the money Jake would have gotten and show the difference today as he is gone.

 

The purpose for this is to see if there could possibly be enough money to acquire someone we arent expecting and to also keep a rolling tab on how things shake out with payroll. I would do this myself but there are certainly more knowledgable people out there that can do a better job and would, frankly, enjoy doing it more than me. Have fun guys.

This it the best possible 25 man roster the Marlins can field with all our current players.

 

John Baker $405,000

Gaby Sanchez $400,000

Dan Uggla $4,400,000

Jorge Cantu $4,500,000

Hanley Ramirez $5,500,000

Jeremy Hermida $2,500,000

Cameron Maybin $400,000

Cody Ross $3,000,000

 

Alfredo Amezaga $1,750,000

Josh Willingham $2,000,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Dallas McPherson $550,000

Mike Rabelo $405,000

 

Josh Johnson $1,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $3,000,000

Scott Olsen $2,250,000

Chris Volstad $405,000

Andrew Miller $1,350,000

 

Kevin Gregg $5,000,000

Matt Lindstrom $420,000

Joe Nelson $800,000

Leo Nunez $420,000

Anibal Sanchez $420,000

Reynel Pinto $420,000

Ryan Tucker $400,000

 

$43,395,000

 

Anything above $420,000 level is an educated arbitration guess, besides our two contracts (Hanley, Helms)

 

AAA - Kensing ($550K), everything else would be club controlled (Coghlan, Andino, Tank, Raynor, Mobley, Cruz, Hurk, Owens, Trahern, Dooolittle, Delgado, Badenhop)

 

AA - Thompson, Sinkbiel, Morrison, West, Winters, Wood, Leroux, Cousins, Petersen, Taylor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, essentially moving Kevin Gregg would get us right in that $38-40 million range.

After that, anyone else we trade would probably just free up the amount of their salary in pursuit of other free agents.

Yes.

 

It's GREGG or OLSEN/WILLINGHAM, based on what we have.

 

That is a tough call because Gregg is a solid RP, delays Lindstrom from getting a big saves bump in arbitration, and would be a Type A Free agent for two first round picks. In the negative, it would force Olsen off the team leaving us with "only" 5 SP, and we'd have a weak ass 25th man on the bench whether its Andino, or one of the baby outfielders (Raynor, Carroll, De Aza).\

 

Olsen would push Sanchez/Miller to the pen to become a nasty Ryan Madson/Adam Wainwright when relieving type for 1 year. Willingham would make the Marlins outfield 4 deep and the bench would be F'ing serious with Hammer/McPherson/Helms/Amezaga. But then you don't have Gregg's stability (say what you will with the blown saves, but he's solid), and you are potentially losing big to the farm with the draft picks. And you are making probably Lindstrom, a lot more expensive in 2010 when he racks up the saves.

 

I would go the trade Gregg route though (this is also trading/DFAing Kensing). Use the Type-A compensation as incentive to a team to trade. I would target young arms. Even at the single A level.

 

John Baker $405,000

Gaby Sanchez $400,000

Dan Uggla $4,400,000

Jorge Cantu $4,500,000

Hanley Ramirez $5,500,000

Jeremy Hermida $2,500,000

Cameron Maybin $400,000

Cody Ross $3,000,000

 

Alfredo Amezaga $1,750,000

Josh Willingham $2,000,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Dallas McPherson $550,000

Veteran RH Catcher $1,500,000

 

Josh Johnson $1,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $3,000,000

Scott Olsen $2,250,000

Chris Volstad $405,000

Andrew Miller $1,350,000

 

Matt Lindstrom $420,000

Joe Nelson $800,000

Leo Nunez $420,000

Anibal Sanchez $420,000

Reynel Pinto $420,000

Ryan Tucker $400,000

Taylor Tankeresly $415,000

 

$39,905,000

 

Top Callups

C - Rabelo

IF - Andino, Coghlan

OF - Raynor, Carroll

P - Cruz, Vanden Hurk, Owens, Mobley

 

That's a very deep team. The position players and starters are clearly awesome, and that bullpen can be really nasty if Tucker develops, Pinto pitches like the first half, and Tank gets his sh*t straight to be a true LOOGY. We'd also have so much depth on the bench, we could just call up our AAA middle infielders in case of an infield injury and we have four starting OF, so if one were to get hurt we wouldn't lose much with Raynor as the 5th OF (Amezaga as the 4th in that scenario) for the time being. Same with the pitching, as if a starter goes down Anibal can instantly sub in and we have four huge fireballers just sitting in AAA. Lastly, the veteran catchers. Might as well do LoDuca (or Toby Hall) to play some lefties and spot. I would prefer to acquire another young catcher to groom with Baker (and maybe Gregg could bring this in a trade), but it seems logistically it will be more realistic to go the cheap free agent route. I like this depth a lot. I'm really hoping we have a $40 millionish team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, essentially moving Kevin Gregg would get us right in that $38-40 million range.

After that, anyone else we trade would probably just free up the amount of their salary in pursuit of other free agents.

Yes.

 

It's GREGG or OLSEN/WILLINGHAM, based on what we have.

 

That is a tough call because Gregg is a solid RP, delays Lindstrom from getting a big saves bump in arbitration, and would be a Type A Free agent for two first round picks. In the negative, it would force Olsen off the team leaving us with "only" 5 SP, and we'd have a weak ass 25th man on the bench whether its Andino, or one of the baby outfielders (Raynor, Carroll, De Aza).\

 

Olsen would push Sanchez/Miller to the pen to become a nasty Ryan Madson/Adam Wainwright when relieving type for 1 year. Willingham would make the Marlins outfield 4 deep and the bench would be F'ing serious with Hammer/McPherson/Helms/Amezaga. But then you don't have Gregg's stability (say what you will with the blown saves, but he's solid), and you are potentially losing big to the farm with the draft picks. And you are making probably Lindstrom, a lot more expensive in 2010 when he racks up the saves.

 

I would go the trade Gregg route though (this is also trading/DFAing Kensing). Use the Type-A compensation as incentive to a team to trade. I would target young arms. Even at the single A level.

 

John Baker $405,000

Gaby Sanchez $400,000

Dan Uggla $4,400,000

Jorge Cantu $4,500,000

Hanley Ramirez $5,500,000

Jeremy Hermida $2,500,000

Cameron Maybin $400,000

Cody Ross $3,000,000

 

Alfredo Amezaga $1,750,000

Josh Willingham $2,000,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Dallas McPherson $550,000

Veteran RH Catcher $1,500,000

 

Josh Johnson $1,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $3,000,000

Scott Olsen $2,250,000

Chris Volstad $405,000

Andrew Miller $1,350,000

 

Matt Lindstrom $420,000

Joe Nelson $800,000

Leo Nunez $420,000

Anibal Sanchez $420,000

Reynel Pinto $420,000

Ryan Tucker $400,000

Taylor Tankeresly $415,000

 

$39,905,000

 

Top Callups

C - Rabelo

IF - Andino, Coghlan

OF - Raynor, Carroll

P - Cruz, Vanden Hurk, Owens, Mobley

 

That's a very deep team. The position players and starters are clearly awesome, and that bullpen can be really nasty if Tucker develops, Pinto pitches like the first half, and Tank gets his sh*t straight to be a true LOOGY. We'd also have so much depth on the bench, we could just call up our AAA middle infielders in case of an infield injury and we have four starting OF, so if one were to get hurt we wouldn't lose much with Raynor as the 5th OF (Amezaga as the 4th in that scenario) for the time being. Same with the pitching, as if a starter goes down Anibal can instantly sub in and we have four huge fireballers just sitting in AAA. Lastly, the veteran catchers. Might as well do LoDuca (or Toby Hall) to play some lefties and spot. I would prefer to acquire another young catcher to groom with Baker (and maybe Gregg could bring this in a trade), but it seems logistically it will be more realistic to go the cheap free agent route. I like this depth a lot. I'm really hoping we have a $40 millionish team.

 

I have to agree with the Gregg route, and it's sick to think of that roster PLUS whatever he brings in a trade, and there should be significant quality there.

Another note: Pushing Anibal/Miller to the pen would also limit their potential arbitration raises (although I'm not sure if Miller is subject to the same rules because his contract is not for the league minimum?)

Additionally, won't we eventually get draft picks for Olsen/Willingham if we hang on to them now and let them go later? How would those likely compare to the "keep Gregg, then let him go as an FA and get 2 first-rounders" situation?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

look up threads by MarlinsLou

 

that thread really should be stickied.

 

Concur. Someone needs to make this happen...

I will constantly update things through the threads as they happen. Stickying it is just going to make me have to go back and re-adjust the numbers to more exact figures as it'll be a greater responsibility for accuracy if it's always clicked on. Like, I've already changed my opinion on Nolasco from that post as I somehow overlooked this.

 

Scott Kazmir lhp

1 year/$3.785M (2008)

re-signed 1/18/08 (avoided arbitration)

 

That is a tough tough comp for Nolasco after his recent season. Kaz had yearly consistency, left handed, and stuff like all stars, but Nolasco's raw stats last year are way better. I originally had him for $2.75 (in line with Wainwright, Carmona, etc buyouts), but Kaz blew by all of them. Part of that is three year consistency where those guys only had A big season, but part of it is not getting the long term deal. How do you balance that? I'm just guessing Nolasco at the $3 mil level now and I've reflected that in recent posts but haven't gone back and changed it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to agree with the Gregg route, and it's sick to think of that roster PLUS whatever he brings in a trade, and there should be significant quality there.

Another note: Pushing Anibal/Miller to the pen would also limit their potential arbitration raises (although I'm not sure if Miller is subject to the same rules because his contract is not for the league minimum?)

Additionally, won't we eventually get draft picks for Olsen/Willingham if we hang on to them now and let them go later? How would those likely compare to the "keep Gregg, then let him go as an FA and get 2 first-rounders" situation?

He is subject to the same rules as his K let's him opt out when he gets to arb. It would certainly lower Anibal or Miller for at least the first season of their arb if the Marlins had full years of starting from the other 5 guys. That's actually a smart find I hadn't thought of with keeping Olsen. That could easily deflect $1-2 off overall 2010 team salary. And hopefully that is the last god damn year we have to pinch pennies (i.e. millions) off of payroll and the new stadium is ready to go in 2011.

 

We'd have to hold onto Olsen and Willingham for at least 3 more seasons so that's not something to think about. I doubt either would be type A free agents either. Olsen could be an A if he stays healthy, but it's unlikely Hammer would be anything more than a B. RP elias rankings are insane compared to other positions. That's why Gregg is rather valuable for closing purposes in 2009.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to agree with the Gregg route, and it's sick to think of that roster PLUS whatever he brings in a trade, and there should be significant quality there.

Another note: Pushing Anibal/Miller to the pen would also limit their potential arbitration raises (although I'm not sure if Miller is subject to the same rules because his contract is not for the league minimum?)

Additionally, won't we eventually get draft picks for Olsen/Willingham if we hang on to them now and let them go later? How would those likely compare to the "keep Gregg, then let him go as an FA and get 2 first-rounders" situation?

He is subject to the same rules as his K let's him opt out when he gets to arb. It would certainly lower Anibal or Miller for at least the first season of their arb if the Marlins had full years of starting from the other 5 guys. That's actually a smart find I hadn't thought of with keeping Olsen. That could easily deflect $1-2 off overall 2010 team salary. And hopefully that is the last god damn year we have to pinch pennies (i.e. millions) off of payroll and the new stadium is ready to go in 2011.

 

We'd have to hold onto Olsen and Willingham for at least 3 more seasons so that's not something to think about. I doubt either would be type A free agents either. Olsen could be an A if he stays healthy, but it's unlikely Hammer would be anything more than a B. RP elias rankings are insane compared to other positions. That's why Gregg is rather valuable for closing purposes in 2009.

 

I'm sure this won't happen, but the idea of this team with a $45-55 million payroll is just sick. Take Lou's roster, but make KG that proven RP sub for Tucker/Nunez/Nelson (whoever is struggling the most), add Rhodes to take Tank's place, and that's a really sick 'pen with a roster of approximately $47 million. Lord, that would be amazing; we'll still be good, but that would be amazing.

Come on, Jeff, just $7 million more......oh yeah, AND we get Type-A compensation when we let KG walk after this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a question about how arbitration normally works in regards to stats. Is there a certain number of saves that will bump the salary to a certain amount, or is it all subjective? If this were a real concern, they should just not use anyone specific as a closer and just use a bullpen by committee, which seems like a much better way of using the bullpen anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a question about how arbitration normally works in regards to stats. Is there a certain number of saves that will bump the salary to a certain amount, or is it all subjective? If this were a real concern, they should just not use anyone specific as a closer and just use a bullpen by committee, which seems like a much better way of using the bullpen anyway.

Objective and Subjective

 

Objective, stats compared to other players in the league. The more saves Gregg gets, the more he looks like Fuentes, Putz, etc. Teams can counter with say, Greggs blown saves, HR rate, higher whip for a closer, etc. But then his people can come back with a good .BAA, good K numbers, solid ERA, he's been good for two years etc. All of this balances out into something to arbitrators.

 

Subjective. Does Gregg sell a lot of jerseys, make all star teams, bring people to the park, etc. The objective arguments are stronger, but these can hold some weight and be deciding factors. This kind of thing really matter for a guy like Uggla who makes all the all star teams, or Dontrelle who was a fan favorite.

 

 

And the bullpen by committee approach doesn't necessarily save money. For instance, say Lindstrom, Nunez, and Pinto all KILL next year. Let's say situation 1 is Lindstrom 40 saves, Nunez and Pinto awesome set up men. Situation 2 is Lindstrom 20 saves, Nunez and Pinto 10 a piece. Situation 1 is going to have Lindstrom around $ 3.5 million, and Nunez and Pinto around $ 1. Situation 2 is going to have Lindstrom around $ 2.5 million, and Nunez and Pinto around $ 1.5 as they were more important to the team, and can argue they are future "closers." I'm making these numbers up on the fly, but it's basically a WASH for the situation we have. If we had 1-2 veteran relief pitchers under contract, it would be a good idea to vulture saves off Lindstrom, but based on our pre-arbitration alternatives, this doesn't really work out as the savings on the top guy will just be gains for the lower ones.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a question about how arbitration normally works in regards to stats. Is there a certain number of saves that will bump the salary to a certain amount, or is it all subjective? If this were a real concern, they should just not use anyone specific as a closer and just use a bullpen by committee, which seems like a much better way of using the bullpen anyway.

Objective and Subjective

 

Objective, stats compared to other players in the league. The more saves Gregg gets, the more he looks like Fuentes, Putz, etc. Teams can counter with say, Greggs blown saves, HR rate, higher whip for a closer, etc. But then his people can come back with a good .BAA, good K numbers, solid ERA, he's been good for two years etc. All of this balances out into something to arbitrators.

 

Subjective. Does Gregg sell a lot of jerseys, make all star teams, bring people to the park, etc. The objective arguments are stronger, but these can hold some weight and be deciding factors. This kind of thing really matter for a guy like Uggla who makes all the all star teams, or Dontrelle who was a fan favorite.

 

 

And the bullpen by committee approach doesn't necessarily save money. For instance, say Lindstrom, Nunez, and Pinto all KILL next year. Let's say situation 1 is Lindstrom 40 saves, Nunez and Pinto awesome set up men. Situation 2 is Lindstrom 20 saves, Nunez and Pinto 10 a piece. Situation 1 is going to have Lindstrom around $ 3.5 million, and Nunez and Pinto around $ 1. Situation 2 is going to have Lindstrom around $ 2.5 million, and Nunez and Pinto around $ 1.5 as they were more important to the team, and can argue they are future "closers." I'm making these numbers up on the fly, but it's basically a WASH for the situation we have. If we had 1-2 veteran relief pitchers under contract, it would be a good idea to vulture saves off Lindstrom, but based on our pre-arbitration alternatives, this doesn't really work out as the savings on the top guy will just be gains for the lower ones.

 

Ok that makes more sense now, I just wasn't sure if the fact Gregg had reached a milestone such as 20 or 30 saves was more important or not. Still hate the whole idea of a save lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...