I still think this is going to work out just fine.

 

RHP - Lindstrom, Nunez, Kensing, Proctor, Calero, Penn, Tucker, Ceda, Vanden Hurk, Leroux, Wood, Owens, Trahern, Badenhop, Sinkbiel, Winters, Doolittle, Mobley, Allison

LHP - Pinto, Meyer, Tank, Thompson, West, G. Taylor

 

That is all AA or higher. We're going to get 7 (seven) out of this. Mark my words. Just try and no be to frustrated with the attrition process and hope we won't lose to many games as it sorts itself out. And you know if we're still in it last week of July, Beinfest isn't going to be gun shy if we need to add another veteran arm.

 

There is a lot, a lot, of talent here. It's going to be ok.

 

Just responding to your PM response here since it'll make it all the easier.

 

I agree that yeah, average, we got average all over the place. The average ERA this millennium is ~4.

 

I want my elitez though.

 

I mean, we have what, 4 option, lindstrom/nunez/trucker/ceda?

 

Lindstrom I have some major concerns over. His HR/FLY the past two years is just 2.5%. We're talking about a guy who has a 12.5% HR/FLY rate in the minors. The chances of him maintaining a 0.20 HR/9 is slim. A normalization would put him at a 1.00 HR/9, 11 more HRs in his career. We're talking about a guy who's only had success in the majors because of the fact he hasn't given up many HRs. Even giving him the benefit of the doubt and giving him a 9% HR/FB rate, that's ups his career FIP all the way to 3.69. Still nice, but we're not talking about the 3.00 FIPs he's put up two years running. There's then the K issue, where he only K'd 6.75 last year and had only a 7.5 K/9 in the minors. I'm not worried about his control even though he put up a 4.08 BB/9 last year. After his demotion/promotion, he put up a 3 BB/9 rest of the way, and had a 2.82 BB/9 in '07. I mean, if he can put up a 0.7 HR/9, 7.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, that's pretty damn solid, I just have questions if he can actually do that.

 

Nunez is basically in the same boat. A optimsicly-fair prediction is, what, 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9? That gives a MR average FIP. He has a career 1.2 HR/9 with a 9.5 HR/FB% rate, 9.1% in the minors, so I mean, he's like a 1.2 HR/9 guy, and Royals stadium is basically duplicate Dolphin stadium, but he is going from AL to NL. And like Lindstrom, we're asking about strike out problems even though guys is a flamethrower. 7.6 MILB K/9, just 5.8 in the majors. Control beat though, certainly wonder if he could dip down the 2 BB/9 range. But the problem is, I could just as easily see him putting up a 6.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and that really isn't good.

 

I'm cool with Nunez being an average reliever, but with his FB rates he's gonna give up too many HRs to be an elite guy. Unless he starts King at, like, a 9 plus K/9, or starts getting more GBs, his ceiling is an average MR.

 

Which then leaves the two minor guys. Jose Ceda has some marks, basically his control and his questionable work ethic. But we're also talking about obscene K numbers and two plus pitches. Just the biggest knock is what has happened so far as a Marlin: He hasn't pitched at all because he came into camp out of shape and also has a shoulder injury. With him it isn't so much can he do it, but will he get the chance.

 

And I know I've already gone over Tucker with you, but reiteriating for public view. His K/rates have gone to absolute ass since he has left the NY PENN league. He's gotten by the past two years with improved control, which is real nice to see, but also a dreadfully low HR?9 much like Lindstrom. He had just a 3.5% HR/9 in Jupiter, and then a f'n 2.1% HR/9 in Carolina. Those just aren't sustainable. He certainly has pretty decent GB/FB rates but he's not going to be putting up 0.30 HR/9's. It's just a think of what the hell happened to his K-rates. If they don't come back, he's in trouble. Maybe it's outside forces that play on it (i.e. being told to work more on his secondary pitches), but even then, we're still talking about a guy with only 1 plus pitch. He's littered all over top prospect lists so there's obviously something the scouts like, which I have no problem defaulting too, but I'm also not going to blindly follow the shepherd.

 

God I'm getting even MORE pissed we got rid of DLC. His GB rates are f***ing amazing and his HR/9 is going to be real nice, his control was continually improving, argggggg

 

I just want my 2 elitez. I certainly agree wholeheartly we're nowhere close to a bad stituation. But I want to be great everywhere, I want to smash faces to a pulp. We'll have the hitting several years running. We'll have the rotation several years running. We can be so f'n elite with a better back end bullpen. Good one, above average 2, average 3-5, below average high upside 6-7, that'll give us what damn good bullpen. Right now though it's looking more like we'll be having average 1-5, below average 6-7, which just really isn't something to fawn over.

 

I also agree with you though about the assertion of, we'll be making a lot of trades. Chances of us getting a very high BP arm certainly are up there.

 

I love the passion. I didn't know that about Tucker, I hope it's something else besides a true lessening of the ability to K people.

One thing - I'm not sure how much of a difference it is for a reliever to go from AL to the NL. I don't think you gave it a huge amount in your analysis, but either way. My reasoning is that a relief pitcher in the NL is rarely facing the pitcher, anyway, especially a late-inning, set-up-type guy. I suppose you could argue that, assuming the position players are equal, the average DH > the average pinch-hitter, but that's probably a very small difference in expected ERA, FIP, etc.

only thing i worry that we could be use up our bullpen too much like friday and saturday jj gave bullpen day off

I still think this is going to work out just fine.

 

RHP - Lindstrom, Nunez, Kensing, Proctor, Calero, Penn, Tucker, Ceda, Vanden Hurk, Leroux, Wood, Owens, Trahern, Badenhop, Sinkbiel, Winters, Doolittle, Mobley, Allison

LHP - Pinto, Meyer, Tank, Thompson, West, G. Taylor

 

That is all AA or higher. We're going to get 7 (seven) out of this. Mark my words. Just try and no be to frustrated with the attrition process and hope we won't lose to many games as it sorts itself out. And you know if we're still in it last week of July, Beinfest isn't going to be gun shy if we need to add another veteran arm.

 

There is a lot, a lot, of talent here. It's going to be ok.

 

:panic :panic :panic

 

So the sky isn't falling?

 

Good post, Lou. A big part of this problem is the fact that most bullpen guys are not household names, and bullpen prospects are even more unheard-of. We need to have some faith in our young talent, which, as you noted, we have a lot of.

 

I also think it is too early to write off Proctor. He can be a serviceable MR guy. The lefty depth is a bit of a concern, though. A Tank revival would do wonders for our club.

We could have picked up Joe Beimel cheap, he ended up signing earlier than Will Ohman but making less. I really doubt Tank will suddenly improve.

We could have picked up Joe Beimel cheap, he ended up signing earlier than Will Ohman but making less. I really doubt Tank will suddenly improve.

 

Well, it would be Tank returning to his 2006, or even 2007 form. But I don't see him coming back either, and least not for a while. But we can hope pray.gif