Something I found interesting while looking at the plate discipline stats was Dan Uggla.

 

When talking about Uggla's problems at the plate, 90% percent of Marlins fans who base their judgment on watching the games will tell you it is his plate discipline. He swings at two many pitches outside of the zone, especially chasing low and outside breaking balls. That's also the picture I had in my head.

 

When you look at Uggla's O-swing% (% of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone) you realize he is well above average for 2nd baseman. In 08' he ranked 7th out of 17 qualified with a 21.0% O-Swing%, and he's tied with Chase Utley for 5th in O-swing% this season with a 19.1%. So Uggla actually swings at alot less pitches outside of the zone than the rest of the 2nd baseman in baseball.

 

In fact, Uggla doesn't even swing that much general. According to his Swing% (Just the % of pitches swung at) he was 6th of 17 2nd in 08 (42.9%) and 7th out of 25 qualified in 09 (41.2%)

 

What Uggla struggles with is making contact with the pitches he does swing at.

 

When Uggla does swing at pitches out of the strike zone (O-Contact%) he doesn't make great contact compared to other 2nd baseman: Dead last in 08 (43.5%) and 22 out of 25 in 09' (55.1%). When he does swing at that out-side slider or pitch outside of the strike zone he doesn't have a good chance of hitting it... probably leaving a lasting message in peoples head that this guy swings at a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone when he doesn't he just makes contact with them very poorly.

 

But what alarmed me the most about Uggla is his ability to miss pitches he swings at over the plate. His Z-Contact% (% of contact made on balls in the k-zone) is horrible: Dead last out of 17 second baseman in 08. I fact, the 5.3% in between him and the 16th worst (Rickie Weeks) is the biggest differential from one hitter to the next on the list, so he's significantly in last place in that category. He's also in last so far this season.

 

Also you can probably guess it but he's dead last in his Contact % in general by a lot. 70.7% (second to last is Brandon Phillips at 77.9%)

 

If you argue its because he hits a lot differently than a lot of second baseman, his Contact% in 08 would have been second to last among 1b in baseball ahead of Ryan K-king Howard.

 

I was one of those under the impression that because of his decent LD% but low BABIP that his lack production was due to bad luck. But the dudes just not putting the ball in play enough. But it really does show you how hard the guy does hit the ball when he does.

Interesting stuff. On what site is this kind of information available?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...009&month=0

 

Fangraphs.com in general is just an awesome site.

I was one of those under the impression that because of his decent LD% but low BABIP that his lack production was due to bad luck. But the dudes just not putting the ball in play enough. But it really does show you how hard the guy does hit the ball when he does.

 

Interesting notes. But BABIP is only for balls that are actually put in play. So him "not putting the ball in play enough" doesn't affect [directly], since PA's where the ball is not put in play have no effect on a hitter's BABIP. Bottom line, given his spreads of LD, GB, FB, and pop-ups, his expected BABIP is significantly higher than it actually is. And that still suggests bad luck.

Also, a guy who hits the ball really hard, as you are claiming that Uggla does, should, if anything, have a higher BABIP.

I was claiming that when he DOES put the ball in play good things happen, and he's getting unlucky on balls put in play, but it doesn't look like he's putting the ball in play enough.

Well that explains why he maintains a relatively (and I mean relatively on this team) acceptable OBP even though he's currently batting .193 . So ok, it's not plate discipline. His problem is he just can't hit.

That also shows that its not just bad luck that's affecting him. Maybe his BA would be .240 if a few more of his line drives were dropping in. But he's aslo flailing at pitches he should be hitting so he's worse than Mendoza.

Uggla is not going to have a huge BA. If he was having what would be a normal ammt of balls dropping in he'd have a .260 BA. What Uggla has always brought is a high number of XBH and solid walk numbers. In those traits one finds his value. Some folks like to go back the ASB to show an Uggla decline, but his September was just dandy, showing recovery from his ankle woes. He will drag his BA up about 50-60 points and with the way he hits that will put his OPS up by 150+ points.

What Uggla struggles with is making contact with the pitches he does swing at.

...

the dudes just not putting the ball in play enough.

 

Uggla's career Contact % is 72.9% and this year it's 77.0%, so that's not the problem.

What Uggla struggles with is making contact with the pitches he does swing at.

...

the dudes just not putting the ball in play enough.

 

Uggla's career Contact % is 72.9% and this year it's 77.0%, so that's not the problem.

Imagine what he'd put up with acceptable contact percentages.

 

Edit: If he could cut down the strikeouts from 77/171 BB/SO he'd be 900+ OPSer.

 

I think if he realized he had enough power to hit the ball for XBH without swinging out of his shoes.

 

This is the guy who admits to the media he has no hitting approach, lol

What Uggla struggles with is making contact with the pitches he does swing at.

...

the dudes just not putting the ball in play enough.

 

Uggla's career Contact % is 72.9% and this year it's 77.0%, so that's not the problem.

Imagine what he'd put up with acceptable contact percentages.

 

Edit: If he could cut down the strikeouts from 77/171 BB/SO he'd be 900+ OPSer.

 

I think if he realized he had enough power to hit the ball for XBH without swinging out of his shoes.

 

This is the guy who admits to the media he has no hitting approach, lol

 

Well yeah, the guy is a textbook hacker...It's just baffling how he is having such a horrible year even after improving his walk rate, strikeout rate, LD%, and contact rate from his career norms. The BABIP is an incredible 80+ points below his career norm despite all this, so the problem is undoubtedly bad luck. He will go on a tear before you know it.

What Uggla struggles with is making contact with the pitches he does swing at.

...

the dudes just not putting the ball in play enough.

 

Uggla's career Contact % is 72.9% and this year it's 77.0%, so that's not the problem.

Imagine what he'd put up with acceptable contact percentages.

 

Edit: If he could cut down the strikeouts from 77/171 BB/SO he'd be 900+ OPSer.

 

I think if he realized he had enough power to hit the ball for XBH without swinging out of his shoes.

 

This is the guy who admits to the media he has no hitting approach, lol

 

Well yeah, the guy is a textbook hacker...It's just baffling how he is having such a horrible year even after improving his walk rate, strikeout rate, LD%, and contact rate from his career norms. The BABIP is an incredible 80+ points below his career norm despite all this, so the problem is undoubtedly bad luck. He will go on a tear before you know it.

Ya his LD% is a little up from his career norms. But his 20.5 % IFFB% compared to his career 9% is WAY up. His LD% should translate in about a .291 BABIP, but that usually doesn't take into a fact a hitter popping the ball straight in the air 20% of the time.

The 20% pop up is actually 20% of FBs are pop ups. He doesn't hit a pop up 20% of the time, rather 20% of the time he hits a FB, it's been a pop up.

 

Even those that does account for some of his babip drop, it's still way below what you'd expect out of it.

The 20% pop up is actually 20% of FBs are pop ups. He doesn't hit a pop up 20% of the time, rather 20% of the time he hits a FB, it's been a pop up.

 

Even those that does account for some of his babip drop, it's still way below what you'd expect out of it.

Would you say that his IFFB% has something to do with why his LD% is normal but his BABIP is so low?

The 20% pop up is actually 20% of FBs are pop ups. He doesn't hit a pop up 20% of the time, rather 20% of the time he hits a FB, it's been a pop up.

 

Even those that does account for some of his babip drop, it's still way below what you'd expect out of it.

Would you say that his IFFB% has something to do with why his LD% is normal but his BABIP is so low?

 

It accounts for it, but isn't everything. He'd normally be "on-pace" for 3-4 pop ups right now, but has 8, so that only accounts for 4-5 plays.

 

In the other Uggla thread, polo: "Wow, after a closer look at Uggla's numbers it looks to me like his BABIP should be in the .290s and his BA should be in the .240s."

 

not sure how he got the numbers, my guess is looking at Ugglas career norm of BABIP on balls hit in play (So babip off LD, babip off FB, ect) and expounded it to this year.

The 20% pop up is actually 20% of FBs are pop ups. He doesn't hit a pop up 20% of the time, rather 20% of the time he hits a FB, it's been a pop up.

 

Even those that does account for some of his babip drop, it's still way below what you'd expect out of it.

Would you say that his IFFB% has something to do with why his LD% is normal but his BABIP is so low?

 

It accounts for it, but isn't everything. He'd normally be "on-pace" for 3-4 pop ups right now, but has 8, so that only accounts for 4-5 plays.

 

In the other Uggla thread, polo: "Wow, after a closer look at Uggla's numbers it looks to me like his BABIP should be in the .290s and his BA should be in the .240s."

 

not sure how he got the numbers, my guess is looking at Ugglas career norm of BABIP on balls hit in play (So babip off LD, babip off FB, ect) and expounded it to this year.

His HR/FB is at a career low and his IFFB% is at a drastic career high. I'm just saying, the usually link with LD% and BABIP isn't there, so maybe its something with his FB%. Is there a stat for what percent of his LD's turn into outs.?

 

Edit: He has the highest FB% for 2nd baseman in baseball last season... So doesn't is really matter what hes doing with those flyballs? I, like anyone, would much rather have him hit more line drives, but It may be to Uggla's benefit to hit the ball more in the air.

I forget the exact number but the babip of line drives is about .730.

 

Infield flies do have a negative impact on the babip but not as much as I originally thought because the babip of all fly balls is only about .150. For my Uggla estimate I assumed the babip of infield flies was .000 just because I couldn't find any estimates anywhere and I can't see how any or too many infield flies become hits.