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Everything posted by MarlinsLou

  1. Looks like they are still protecting Guerrero, Moran, Keller, Kinley, and Riddle. Not sure how Stewart and Castano don't fit into that. Only thing I can think of is, they expect to sign 3-4 veterans for the MLB squad, DFA one or two of those guys above for upcoming Rule V/other acquisitions, so if you leave them off your 40 man, you aren't telegraphing to other teams you value them just to DFA them when you sign a Romo or Castellanos or N. Walker type. This doesn't add up. More is coming.
  2. Where is the full list? Seems like Stewart and Castano should be protected
  3. Even if every player they have works out, his competition for PA are all lefties - Lewin, Sanchez, Bleday. This would easily work itself out. There is an easy 500+ PA for Castellanos here. And 2 other guys. And the 4th is probably 400ish. Where's the problem? None of these dudes are Bregman and have to play everyday and I welcome that issue. Verdugo didn't get 400 for the Dodgers last year and he was awesome. Likewise, what if Sanchez can dabble in CF which could be a thing?
  4. They don't, and that's why they should do it. They need to create value however they can.
  5. I don't really agree with any of this but the last sentence, but we can agree to disagree. 4/$60 is a competitive offer and the Marlins have he's from here, no state income tax, possibly frontloaded, etc.
  6. Offering him 4/$60 is the textbook definition of a legit attempt to sign him. That's around where he should be, absent some crazy offer from someone else. Also who else is offering that money? Are the Marlins afforded an opportunity to counter in your hypothetical? If three teams offer that and they raise their offer is that satisfying a good faith effort then? He's also from South Florida and the Marlins do have a lot of hope to sell, even with the 2021 team. Portraying them solely as a 100 loss team is difficult when there is a ton of talent coming. The farm is legitimately deep. Likewise
  7. MLBTR isn't a great source. They are OK. They've recently written the Marlins owe Stanton money in 2020 and Chen $22 million in 2020, and that's unarguably wrong based on Stanton not choosing the opt in/out yet post 2020 (best I can tell is, it was a typo for the Castro buyout but I'm not sure) and Chen's money being deferred (MLBTR is using the luxury tax numbers because they are lazy). I think that ballpark for Castellanos is right, but I can see it being anywhere from 3/$42 to 4/$72. It'll probably land in the middle of that annual value over 4 years, with Boras shooting for a high annu
  8. I don't think it would for Betts without an extension. 1 year of control isn't valued that great even for an amazing player. Mookie for 8 years, even if paying him a ridiculous sum, would open things up a bit. It's all based on surplus value. If Betts is a 7 WAR player and is being paid $30+ million, he's worth something like $35-40 million in prospects. FV60 guys are going to blow that away (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/). I'm sure the Marlins value their top guys there. I don't think they are necessarily wrong either even if Fangraphs thinks they are all border
  9. I think that's low, but even $64-68 is fine ($20-20-$14-$12 sort of thing, etc.). More than that it gets a little iffy on my end, especially with Ozuna and the pick. 2B they have to give Isan PA and Berti was surprisingly fantastic last year. Not sure what the concern is. I'm also personally fine with Wallach and Heineman (hope he sticks in AAA and maybe the bat is real), but a veteran wouldn't be a bad thing. Wallach was good before he got hurt. I'd just place this not in the top 5 concerns. To me thats- -Castellanos/Ozuna (or Rendon), or I guess a short term cheap 1 year bat if thos
  10. Garcia and Puig on a short term deal help current product, and do not help 2022-2023. I will keep saying it - create some value and front load one of those two dudes as they still are going to be good in 3-4 years as they are young. And buy out Anderson and do the same. Then you can afford more guys in the years you are good.
  11. Yep. A long holdout for Castellanos seems like it will happen as Boras will have a standing offer and just hope someone gets hurt first two weeks of spring training. Good thing with the Marlins is, the only way Castellanos makes sense is if it's on their contract terms that work. If he doesn't sign? Bye Felicia. It would suck for us seeing an even worse product another year, but who cares. Eyes on the prize in 2022. It's either creating an asset for the hypothetical contending team or not. No pressure to land this dude but if it happens, great.
  12. I agree with the bat comp. Maybe he never gets to JD's recent epic years, but the guy can hit and I think there is growth potential, with a .850 OPS floor which is fantastic. I don't think he is an Eric Hosmer at all. He hasn't played 3B in 2 seasons, and was horrendous in 2017, so that ship has sailed. You're definitely keeping BA at 3B for years unless a true superstar (Rendon) is acquired, or Jazz gets too big for SS and you have to move BA to the OF. I don't think either of those are a 5 year problem for the Marlins. I think you would play Castellanos as a revolving door at 1B/LF/RF/
  13. He only cares about cash. Front loaded deal, 4 years, and over $60 million is going to be hard to beat by another team to come “home.” It’s easy to sell the hope for the coming Marlins teams too as this isn’t just a cash grab either and this team should be good very soon. I’d offer that now (and Ozuna something similar so it’s a first to take it scenario so theoretically pit those 2 against one another. Try and create leverage there) and hold firm and let another team offer more. If someone is crazy enough to offer him or Ozuna a lot more or a 5th year, oh well you tried. Trade for Clint
  14. Yes, but it's either super cheap ones like Walker and Romo to plug some gaps, or use open payroll to start creating assets in 2022 and beyond with guys being underpaid in "contending years." The worst idea is paying Avisail $15 million bucks for 2 years. That's just wasted money. Unless they just magically decide to run a real payroll over $90 million next year (hahahahahahaha I'm funny).
  15. You're talking a defensive downgrade with Castellanos only. Interchangeable in the sense you're still playing Castellanos in a corner OF slot 80+ games, and then likely working him into 1B/DH time another 50+. Doesn't really change the team much. They'd all get there PA if they are producing. Also, the NL may have a DH by 22/23 with new CBA.
  16. Also why you front o Sure. Ozuna and Castellanos are interchangeable. Both are perfect fits bat wise and you can make the positions work. Ozuna just likely costs more money and you lose a draft pick. It's hard to say what's the better decision between the two.
  17. Bleday before summer 2022 is pretty aggressive (and not financially smart). Sanchez took some CF reps in AAA last year. He will dabble there. Jerar is a fringe prospect. Scott and Misner are 2023+ 2022, I would expect: Alfaro, Veteran backup C Lewin (Castellanos) Isan, Veteran backup, 2B (Berti) Jazz, Berti Anderson, Veteran backup 3B, (Berti) Castellanos (Sanchez, Sierra) Monte, Sierra (Sanchez, Berti) Sanchez (Castellanos, Sierra) There is room for everyone. The Dodgers had 1 player get over 600 PA. You can spread them around easily. You can find 50 games at 1B, 81 games in L
  18. Oh and plus, show some confidence to the fans so the gates improve, hopefully get momentum for a better TV deal, naming rights.... you know running a business. Spend money to make money.
  19. Nah. They have done a really good job absent the Yelich move on the field, but they need to start converting into a longterm contender even if that is years away. I don't think an arbitration buyout for Anderson and front load the money a little, and signing Castellanos/Ozuna (or Wheeler and trading a current MLB SP for a right handed bat with years of control, like Clint Frazier) and paying a little of that money up front is really a radical idea. This comes down to - how cheap are they? Are they content have the lowest payroll in baseball by $5 or $20 million? I'm hoping for the former
  20. And yet his 2018 solely with the Tigers he was a 3 WAR player, and had a 2.8 WAR last year. But paid for last year's Cubs bump for sure? We'll just ignore a close to 2500 PA sample size of hitting near the same? The guy can flat out hit and averaged a 2.4+ WAR in his age 24-27 age seasons, greatly negatively impacted by a horrid 2017 defensive effort at 3B in 2017 (where he won't play again) so this average should be closer to 2.7-2.8 easy. Pretty good for a guy pre-prime years? Who is trending upwards? But let's note an average walk rate and nothing else? He isn't great defensively for sur
  21. This. If you can sign any of them for 7-10 years and get a negotiation period. Sure. I'd trade a shitload to get Lindor or Mookie just to pay them $325 million. The juice is worth the squeeze for a top 10 player in their prime.
  22. No probs. Also, they do have options for variations. Say, Clint Frazier is an odd man out and he has a lot of upside. Why wouldn't you trade Caleb for him (and other prospects as the Yankees have a 40 man crunch and the Marlins don't really for anyone with upside), and you've solved the right handed OF for cheap. Caleb also deflects some money as he hits arbitration first, and now you can do the same thing - have $50-70 million to sign a SP in 20 or 21 and front load their deal to create a cheaper 22/23/24 and instead of having Caleb and "Castellanos," you have Frazier, a veteran SP, and mu
  23. Rendon would be great, but you can't really front load a guy making over $30 million a year. You're just going to sign him at that point (and I'm fine with 7/$238 if that's what it takes. He's awesome). Also, there is the problem of, why is Rendon signing with a non-contender for incremental more money (hypothetically speaking), when he can still get over $200+ million from a team who will be good tomorrow? He's simply going to sign with a better franchise (and so is Cole) even if the Marlins throw that money at them. He's not a guy like Ozuna or Castellanos who are non-superstars who need to
  24. So you mean in a state with no state income tax and front loaded with a beneficial federal tax policy at the moment which may not be there in 2021 after the next election? It’s not only smart for the Marlins. It’s smart for the player to get paid faster. It’s the best carrot.
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