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Everything posted by MarlinsLou

  1. He'd probably be a good third piece next to Ruiz/Smith and May for Realmuto. Also makes sense for them to unload Verdugo, Ruiz/Smith/Barnes, and arms for Kluber. Dodgers have the juice to really get stacked.
  2. Yes. JT is from Oklahoma also (OKST commit before he signed). Houston is basically as close as you can get. He'd be very happy.
  3. This is the only path to getting over .500 by 2021, but for incredible multiple breakouts. Also the best free agent for the team (presuming Realmuto doesn't turn into a SS) is Xander next year. They may need to spend 1 year early (ala Werth) to get a guy that makes sense for the team, as 2021 is all pitching and not impact bats like Xander.
  4. If he becomes a legit # 3 (call it an average 2.5 WAR pitcher for 5 years), it's highway robbery. You're talking about an easy $70-80 million in surplus value with that kind of player on an intro contract. Ozuna was worth maybe $45 million at best for two years (and he produced under this in 2018, which we will ignore for purposes evaluating at the time of trade). If Alcantara contributes 5 WAR as a reliever over his club controlled years and Gallen does a Tom Koehler impression and drops 800-1,000 solid innings before getting phased out, call this another 5 WAR, you break even. If you get
  5. I would be all over that. They have good secondary pieces (Pint, Nevin) so a deal can work out if the Rockies want to go all in. Give'em a reliever.
  6. The execution for pre-2018 was "Loria." It's tough to use that as a baseline with the meddling. Yelich trade looks like a disaster so that's all we have to work on now. Gordon, Ozuna, and Stanton were fine. Those were never going to be radical needle movers. So are they going to mess up Realmuto? That's a big question we'll have to see. He's more valuable than Gordon, Ozuna, and Stanton, and if they drop another Yelich, whoever is in charge (Hill) needs to go.
  7. Devers is a FV45 prospect, you're not getting that in the 20th+ round. That is a twice in a decade draft pick luck. Stanton would have opted out., and destroyed the team's payroll in 5-6 years if he didn't. Guzman is being worked as a starter to get innings, and is presumably ending in the bullpen. I don't think a small sample size WHIP tells us who he is. Let him throw, and let the bullpen conversion happen in 2020 (or earlier) if it's clear it's a failed experiment. (I find that likely, which is OK. A good reliever is a fine result.) Castro is fine. In fact, I think they should mayb
  8. Value is value. The other teams could likely beat the Astros with 1 better prospect involved if Tucker/Whitley are off the table, but something like Alvarez, Martin, Nova, and Stassi/Stubbs easily gets you to around $65 million in surplus value. That's around where it should be. A lot of permutations from there, with the Marlins being able to throw in Steckenrider, Conley, and/or Straily, all useful to Houston, and/or absorbing Reddicks $26 million (they dont need with Tucker/Springer/Brantley/Kemp/Straw), and/or Houston throwing in more guys not in their top 10 prospects, who are still qu
  9. I agree. That's why they need to cash in Steckenrider or Conley to them (or take on Reddick's contract). They need some icing on the cake to include Martin as player # 2. Tucker, Nova, Stassi/Stubbs, and some other outside top 15-20 prospect definitely works 4-1 for Realmuto too, but I feel there is an opportunity to give the contending club a bullpen piece they want/need.
  10. They are incentivized financially to keep Whitley in the minors past the Super2 deadline. Also, Astros lost a reliever for a large chunk of the season today. They are a great spot to move a well above average arm like Steckenrider or bullpen-Conley
  11. James is likely in their rotation right now and already got to the bigs, so I find that unlikely. Bukauskas is a smaller framed starter who the Marlins (Hill) have historically not been interested in. I don't think he's the guy. I think they'd want Martin as the second piece, and some collection of Nova, Perez/Valdez (i.e., a lefty reliever. I know they are smaller, but figure they'd be OK if they got a bigger framed started like Martin and this is a 3rd/4th piece), Stassi/Stubbs (backup C), etc. I'd kick in Conley and ask for Tucker, Martin, Nova, Valdez, and Stassi, and agree to take o
  12. They should acquire a club controlled, at least backup, catcher for a few years just to help with the budget. But it may make more sense to sign a veteran catcher here and there until guys on the farm are ready. Two of the best half dozen prospects in the 2019 MLB draft are catchers also. There is a good chance they double down and take one at # 4 if they are available.
  13. Maldonaldo would be a pretty good 1 year stopgap for the Marlins Just saying
  14. Rosario was 22 last year (1.5 WAR) and better than a 29 year old Rojas (1). Rojas is an excellent bench player, Rosario has major breakout potential and could become something like Didi/Segura real quick. Marlins would be lucky to get him in a package. He'd be the best player in the Marlins organization IMO.
  15. .257 BABIP Always was believed to be a plus defender. Maybe hitting .160 for 2+ months carried into the field. I say "duh" to this. Hit .267/.301/.547 in June and then got hurt and derailed the small sample size progress. His AB did look "a little" better in Aug/Sep even if he was still terrible. Always walked enough in the minors. I'm not saying he's going to work out, or the Yelich trade wasn't idiotic (no offense to the Mil guys, compliment to Yelich) but a BABIP correction to .300 gets him to .230-.240ish (and he isn't a slowpoke so it should tick up a little higher as he shoul
  16. Value is value. If they can get a guy who can get to a 3 WAR at SS with the glove, positive base running, plus speed, and a lot of slap hits, that's great. Especially at club controlled prices for 6+ seasons. Gimenez plays the most impactful defensive position on the field too, so if you're going to forsake power somewhere, this is it. Elvis Andrus has basically averaged a 3 WAR for the last 9 years and that is fantastic. Marlins have power guys - Brinson, Monte, Diaz - and Anderson will hit a few. Notably missing is a longterm C and 1B who can both bash. If these guys pan out, they'll
  17. It is, its an average of what free agency costs as teams win/lose on acquisitions. Something like Bour and Cron (and Morrison and Dietrich) is based on scarcity. They are probably going to be worth more, but there are a lot of them out there so it depresses the whole market. It's not perfect, but we have to value these guys somehow. Just like FG does with prospects, it's just based on averages (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/). The second a guy comes up and drops a 4 WAR year (Nimmo), things can change quickly as to how much he is valued. He's on paper worth m
  18. The Marlins will be very lucky to get a SS prospect the calibre of Gimenez through all of this trade shenanigans. He's probably the Marlins # 1 prospect depending on where they slot VVM. But we shall wait and see. Nimmo and Gimenez with some extra guys, especially someone who can profile as at least a cheap longterm backup catcher, would be pretty good for 2 Realmuto years.
  19. Sure. I think you can question the Steamer numbers, but the analysis that guy did is right which is more important. A win in free agency is roughly +/- $8 million, and you can extrapolate prospect value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/) to figure out a baseline. That all makes sense.
  20. I think the analysis is right here, but Prado can't be trusted to produce that amount. He is -$15 and a pure loss. It's why they should just keep him until the deadline. If he can stay healthy for 3 months, they can turn him into some arm like Mills or Eveld, even if they eat all/most of his payroll. Ultimately, it's stupid to trade for Santana.
  21. Well he's more valuable than Stanton last year, so it will eclipse it. I think it's very arguable JT is more valuable now than Hanley in 2012 (with 2.5 years left on his deal, coming off a .9 WAR injured season and just doing OK in season 2012). Yelich and Cabrera were insanely more valuable.
  22. It's hard to say without being privy to negotiations. A lot of teams still need catchers, Harper and Machado are out there. We're not at the point of no return yet. But it's getting closer once some major moves come in from the big boy contenders. It's posturing, and it's annoying to us while we wait. I find it hard to believe no one is going to step up for the only 4+ WAR catcher in baseball, at 28 years old, so I appreciate them holding out. They probably know a bunch of deals they'll take, but are just waiting to see if a desperation overpay comes in until it becomes really necessary to
  23. Disagree. The Mets will just use their assets, whether keeping them or in trade, and go somewhere else for an upgrade. Realmuto is not the only good player in baseball. You take the best deal period and worry about your own team. That is all you can control.
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