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Everything posted by MarlinsLou

  1. It’s just using payroll wisely. They need a veteran right handed bat and Castellanos is in his prime and can really hit. Use that low payroll and pay the man when you’re bad to try and create a lower payroll asset when you’re good. They could probably be able to afford an extra $5-7 million pitcher in each of 22/23 if they front loaded Castellanos and an Anderson buyout. That’s how you maximize small market resources. That’s an elite reliever
  2. Cubs payroll is probably around $185 million next year, and they need to give Baez and Bryant new deals. They ain’t signing Castellanos.
  3. What do you consider over spending? The Marlins basically have right now: 2020 - 20+ guys club controlled for 25 man roster = $42 million. They need some bench bats, and a legitimate starter in the outfield. (Alfaro, Wallach, Cooper, Isan, Rojas, Berti, Anderson, Ramirez, Brinson, Sierra, Caleb, Sandy, Pablo, Urena, E.Hernandez/Yamamoto, Stanek, Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham, Garcia, Conley) 2021 - Literally 22-24 guys as they have to play the kids= $48 millionish, assuming reasonable arb estimates. They still just need a right handed bat, and potentially upgraded bench/bullpen options
  4. I think Jazz (and Rogers, Garrett) are mid-season 2021 players and Bleday (and Devers, VVM) mid-season 2022 players.
  5. I think my good offseason barometer is: -4 year deal for Castellanos/Ozuna, with money dramatically frontloaded to 2020/2021 to have them on the books cheaper for 2022/2023 when you're theoretically contending (to be able to afford more stuff) -5 year arbitration buyout for Anderson for around $35 million, with a 6th year team option for $10+. Again, front loaded as much as possible 2020/2021 (and 2022) to deflect against future payrolls to fit in an extra guy down the road -Keep Urena and Conley in arbitration -Resign Walker 1/$2 -Resign Romo 1/$3 -Sign another veteran backup IF type
  6. Marlins signing a high priced reliever in a non-contending year who got a qualifying offer? No. Blocking 1B with a true stop gap when Cooper has earned time and Lewin coming in the summer after Super2 status rolls over? No A non-Ace qualifying starter SP? No. Ozuna and Castellanos make sense if the money is right. RHP veteran bat in their prime is a short and longterm need.
  7. I personally don't think that matters at all, but they are going to keep being them. But it's also why I think Castellanos is a better option, among other things.
  8. They have plenty of payroll to add a $15-18 million a year player for 3-4 years, and they need a right handed bat badly. Lewin, Isan, Jazz, Bleday, and Sanchez are lefties. Anderson, Monte, and Alfaro don't really break that up if all works out. I think Monte has the highest bust rate of the above . Getting a veteran right hander with some thump is a big organizational need. If Ozuna wants 5/$110, no thanks. I think 4/$72 from the Marlins will be very competitive. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't think this is a splurge. Their payroll is going to be under $50 million the next 3 seasons doing nothing.
  9. I believe we're two years and $50 million in free agents away
  10. I agree with the first part. An impact multi-year RHP veteran bat who will be in their prime at 3B/OF (Rendon, Ozuna, Castellanos) A 1 year positional starter at 3B/OF (move Anderson as needed) Then a bunch of MiLB deals to a backup Neil Walker, Sergio Romo, and Chad Wallach replacements. Bonus points if they sign a rehab SP candidate (Alex Wood?) on a 1 year deal and sell him a pitcher's park in the NL. I like Stanek, Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham, Urena/E. Hernandez, Garcia, Conley, and Quijada as a bullpen. I'd roll with that but if a vet beats someone (likely Quijada), cool?
  11. He's entering his age 29 season and has averaged over a 3 WAR per 600/PA his career. He's going to get paid. I agree his 17 might be his career year as he was spectacular, but who is going to be surprised if he lands somewhere in between 17 and 18/19 for years moving forward? Not anyone. His power is legit (excellent batted ball/exit velocity profile), and he's becoming more patient. Remember he was hurt last year too. In fact, he's perfect for the Marlins if that bridge isn't burned. If his 16, 18, and 19 is his floor, he's a safe as hell signing with legitimate power upside. Marlins need
  12. He's going to get a big 5 year deal .249 BABIP last year. Massive BB rate increase. Major upside. He's not going to be a Moustakas situation.
  13. Thanks I do know Castellanos is controversial, but it's based on availability (the only bats worth more than a year or two are Rendon, Castellanos, and Ozuna) and they NEED a veteran who can hit and grow with the kids. Castellanos is 28 next year and you're getting his prime on a 3-5 year deal. He's not "that" bad in RF either based on last year's stats although that is a negative. Given that Sanchez, VVM (those two were awarded best overall - in all of minors - defensive RF and CF respectively), and Sierra are GG upside options, Monte is supposed to be really good defensively, the poss
  14. Trades could change the board for sure. However, they do have a high upside player at every position that should be MLB ready by 2021 (or an extra year for Bleday): C - Alfaro (drops Ks is a monster). Banfield could develop. 1B - Lewin (they say GG calibre with big power upside). Cooper is also cost effective 2B - Diaz (big power, and cost effective). Berti also was awesome and maybe he's real SS - Jazz (and Devers/Nunez are interesting) 3B - Anderson LF - Bleday CF - Monte (maybe Sanchez). Plus VVM could hit and Sierra has GG upside. Scott and Misner behind them. RF - Sanchez Al
  15. I am sympathetic to this argument (to an extent), but to echo your other post after this, it's definitely not will he be bad next year or not. To me this is, does he have any value to this organization. As we saw at the deadline, topical relievers got nothing of value in trade returns. No one is going to trust Chen even if he throws a solid 30 innings before the deadline. There is no upside with him. Where is the value when they could be giving those whatever innings to someone else to see if they have a longterm option? Give them to Quijada as a third bullpen lefty and if he bombs, call Casta
  16. I think you're right. They probably know a package they will take from multiple teams, but are holding out for someone to panic (i.e., if Philly signs Machado or Bryce) knowing they can always fallback onto it because it's not like JT isn't desirable. This isn't Castro we're talking about who is good, but has limited appeal. Once Manny, Bryce, Grandal, Pollock, Keuchel, etc. sign, Realmuto will be the best person available, and Robinson Chirinos, Mike Zunino, and Brian McCann aren't preventing a JT deal from going down
  17. Riddle hit a solid .248/.304/.403 against RHP (overall .653, he can't hit lefties), had a .266 BABIP, and is fantastic defensively. There is real upside here if he upticks offensively a little bit. Even if it's just against RHP. That BABIP is encouraging. They should let him play and not block him with a veteran. If he can get to a .700 OPS overall, he's probably a 2 WAR player with the defense.
  18. I disagree, any downtick in production from Realmuto (this includes pacing as a 3.5 WAR player) lowers his value based on production, and amount of service time (games) an acquiring team gets. He's not making enough money to have the Marlins covering April-July money sway things. It was a gamble not to extend him or trade him prior to 2018 in a rebuild situation. Don't count on hitting pocket aces twice in a row. It's 5/$80 or trade him to me. Nothing else. They'll get the value for him, I am assuming they are just holding out as Bryce/Machado/Grandal/Keuchel/Pollock/Grandal are stil
  19. If the Marlins got Riley, Newcomb, Camargo, Pache, and Fried for Realmuto and Conley, it would be a heist for the Marlins. I think you just need to get value, I don't care if it's 2 guys or 4. Just get it to a place where you will probably profit by turning some of these prospects into MLB players. But don't fuck up the main guy. You really can't do that again, like they did with Yelich unless something amazing happens. They need to get, minimum, another Anderson out of this as the main guy (and I'm talking the 3+ WAR 2018 Anderson, not the projected moving forward 2-2.5 WAR Anderson).
  20. Ruiz/Smith, May, Downs/Lux, and a throw in outside their top 15 prospects makes a lot of sense.
  21. The answer is (hell) yes for who he is, but all things considered he isn't throwing consistently/much over 90 MPH and is beating hitters with finesse, control, deception, and an abnormal spin rate (credit to him for having that trait) which limits some harder contact here and there. The league typically catches up to these type of guys as Acuna, Albies, and Freeman aren't going to be phased by this type of stuff, versus having to deal with 70 grade fastballs, sliders, and changeups. A good example may be Marlins former prospect Yusmiero Petit, who absolutely dominated A+/AA and then turned
  22. I don't disagree with you here for the most part. Let me try and say this another way, I think the Marlins between (A) all the guys they currently have that will be MLB ready by 2021; and (B) everyone you want to trade off the MLB team besides Realmuto; are the makings of a pretty solid players 6-25 on a MLB roster that will be very cheap. They need to get probably 5 guys who are better than Anderson (who I think we'd all agree is probably the best longterm player they have right now): Realmuto Asset # 1 Major FA 1 Major FA 2 Trading 2018/2019/2020/Future IFA players for a 2021
  23. Bad at the time of trade, and worse after 2018 (but that's obvious as Yelich got even better than expected and the Brewers outfielders each feel down a peg). I'd have given Yelich $150 million in surplus value prior to the trade, and at the time of trade, Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto probably totaled around $125+ in value. They should have gotten Monte/Diaz upgraded to Hiura, or Yamamoto upgraded to Burnes, or maybe 1-2 other guys (like Brett Phillips) thrown in, etc. I hated it day 1, and now I mega-loathe it.
  24. TLDR - Don’t fuck up Realmuto trade and pray they spend money on FA for 2021 I have no answer for getting people excited about a total rebuild. You have to be a baseball nerd to appreciate what is happening and how little victories - like going over-slot for Banfield, getting a lucky 3rd rounder in Pompey, acquiring some nominal RHP relievers in back to back years in the Rule5, getting Ca. Smith for a nominal prospect, winning the Phelps trade, getting Richards from the independent leagues, etc. - are eventually going to turn into some real value for the team in years. I am a full on believ
  25. He'd probably be a good third piece next to Ruiz/Smith and May for Realmuto. Also makes sense for them to unload Verdugo, Ruiz/Smith/Barnes, and arms for Kluber. Dodgers have the juice to really get stacked.
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