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MarlinsLou

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Everything posted by MarlinsLou

  1. I missed the highlight - my mistake there. So this is where you need to look at the numbers. 18th percentile, very bad. What's the hard date though? -2. He has made 2 less outs versus other CF. Minimum qualifying 50 attempts - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=50&pos=8&roles=&viz=hide Two. The end of the day is, he has "held his own" which I believe is "better" than what was anticipated. Note the jump score which is good. This is honestly my point. He should be in LF without a question primarily. I don't know why I get into these debates here. He should be in LF, but he's shown enough to be able to dabble in CF. If the bat catches up, he's going to be good. Even if that's only against right handers.
  2. So you admit you've missed many games, unlike professionals who collect data on all of them?
  3. You're also proving my point, you remember the bad ones. Is the position you three know more than professional scouting services?
  4. I agree he is lacking offensively? What are you talking about or your point? Because I literally agree and what's the point?
  5. I'll trust professional evaluators over your (and any of our) eye balls 100% of the time. It's easy to be an armchair GM. Fans remember the bad or fantastic looking plays, and ignore the mundane outs are the ones that show your value. Like how Jeter won many gold gloves but was not an elite fielder most of his career. You know, let's believe in experts, data, and science and not just be subjective to one's feelings and annoyances which is why we're in a load of trouble across the board as a society right now, etc. etc. Regardless he is average at best in CF and the bat is skeptical, and Bleday is also not likely an every day CF, so the end result on any level of analysis whether you want to believe the experts or not is get a long-term CF.
  6. Guys like A. Hayes, Laureano, Mullins, Ketel (pre-contract), A. Hicks in a salary dump, and others would have also worked out to add to Reynolds. Marsh also does have 1 WAR (even with the 36% whiff rate), so he wouldn't have been a total disaster and at 24, the sky is still the limit. Of course if Pablo was what was needed to be traded for him, that would hurt absolutely. Keirmaier was also Keirmaier until he got hurt. He could have been had for free to eat the payroll. All of these are big upgrades if the price was right. All of them. Criminal is the right word for not getting a CF, but I will say Sanchez has shown much better defense than anticipated. But they still need one desperately. And yes, the core problem is Bruce not spending money. A bunch of Kim decisions have fallen flat, but she also is never going to win at sub $80m payrolls.
  7. Stanton probably has negative $50-70m in value right now. Let's call it negative $60m. Soler and Garcia aren't even that much. Those guys are probably negative $20m+. Less if Soler opts out also. So a straight swap of Stanton for Garcia/Soler is probably negative $40m in value for the Marlins, as well as they have now ABSORBED $70 million in payroll. That is not good. If this were to work, the Marlins would need like Peraza, Pereira, Sweeney, and O. Cabrera in their system. So it's a 5-2 trade of Stanton + 4 prospects, for Garcia and Soler straight up. No money exchanged. The benefit to the Yankees is saving $70m dollars and they can live without those prospects as none of them are Volpe/Dominguez. Peraza would be the team's longterm SS with star potential, and the other guys could emerge as starters or highly desirable platoon/bench options. Are the prospects and Stanton worth $70m versus Garica/Soler and having that money? I bet the Yankees would be very interested in saving $70m.... because Garcia/Soler then make effectively 5/$60 for them and maybe they then eat half those contracts to send out to someone else so the Yankees could create $100m+ in savings for themselves doing this.... for the cost of call it 1 premium, 2 good, and 3-4 alright prospects (some used to dump Garcia/Soler). And the premium prospect is blocked by Volpe theoretically. Plus losing Stanton which I think we all agree they probably don't care about. Maybe they get Cooper back in this also, or Bleier (dumps more money for Miami). Those guys don't worry and would be cheap for NYY for a season. So for the Marlins, effectively this would be as a roundball: 2023-2027 - $32-35m per year Stanton, Peraza (starting SS), and various bench/platoon options with upside for more. I think this works as 23/24/25 you'd be bogged down with Garcia/Soler money ($27m in 23, $21 in 24, $12 in 25), so it's not "that" much more as we have to assume here we've adding the team's longterm starting SS in Peraza. So Stanton + YOUR SHORT STOP is costing you roughly $8, $14, and $23m more per year than what you have now.... This wouldn't hurt for 2 seasons until 2025, and then if Peraza and the other prospects are good in 2025, the added payroll for Stanton may make it worth it for sure. If anything, you've eliminated some concerns with 2023/2024 and punted some money to 25-27 and you hedge that with the Yankees prospects. Frankly, if Peraza is a long time SS starter and you get some good CC bench options with the other guys, this is probably worth it. Peraza alone could make up the surplus value if he is good. 2028 - $10m Stanton buyout + Peraza is theoretically in year 3 arbitration and maybe the other guys have worked out and are in first year arbitration. Still a lot of player control here, but the costs have rapidly dropped as Stanton is now off the books. I think this is outside the Marlins pay-zone for sure don't get me wrong, but this is an interesting thought experiment *IF* the Yankees would take Garcia and Soler, and they put at least one FV50, and two FV45+/45 prospects on the table. The Marlins would get HR 500 health permitting, and perhaps, their first legitimate HOF as Stanton has an outside chance at another 10-12+ WAR so he can get into the Jim Rice/Andrew Dawson comps. However, if Bruce is going to "spend" $70m, it probably is a BIT easier to dump Garcia/Soler elsewhere even if eating a lot of the contract, and just spend the $70m+ savings on something better. Which should be a good player versus hoping prospects work out. So long story short, A LOT of Yankees prospects they love must come back, and/or the Yankees must eat A LOT of payroll in addition to Garcia and Soler, or it's tough to envision a Stanton deal. This would be a complicated one, but hey, so was Hampton/Piazza's Marlins tenure.
  8. It's basically a financial wash with Ozuna, but paid out 23-24 versus 23-24-25. I can't imagine they'd absorb Soler on top of that. ZIPS thinks they both suck but Ozuna gets you half a win those years. You'd have to DH him. Soler is probably better in the field. All of this is a mess so it doesn't matter. Might be better to get Garcia money off 2025 so I'd do it just for that I think.
  9. Totally. And don't forget Rockies signed Bard for like $19 million. Horrible moves. Imagine she traded Pablo for the Mahle return - a trade just to make a trade. I think someone would burn down the building this server is located.
  10. What? I gave up on this team before you and everyone else besides Das. Just so you know. They are losing no players. None of them are losing any perceivable value for who they are. Pablo is very valuable. Everyone else not so much. Flyer prospects, FV45 low ends at best (like what Wendle was traded for). None of this moves the needle whether they move or don't. No goalpost is being moved. This is making a mountain out of a mole hole complaining about deadline trades. She didn't not trade W. Contreras. THAT'S a real problem. This is a little annoying, but it's not a big deal. If they go this offseason and don't get a major CF, that's a big deal.
  11. Everyone has control besides Aguilar (and he sucks). There really isn't a rush here. Are we losing sleep not getting two FV40 prospects who would rank somewhere in Marlins top 18-25 guys for Okert and Floro? Who they may have already decided we are going to keep? Perspective. It's all going to happen in the offseason. Whatever it is they do or don't do.
  12. Pretty much agree in full. Don't forget for Cooper, Lewin may not be good (they have their own evaluation of him I'm sure already made), as well as everyone has control so they can get virtually same flyer prospects for anyone they want to move. I would love to see this board if we were the Cubs and Contreras wasn't moved. I'm not sure a compensatory pick outweighs offers for one of best catchers in baseball. That's nuts.
  13. Which is why you get Don to quit and save some cash? That's the cheap move. Bruce's best move is to drive him insane. I would LOVE to hear audio of Kim being ordered to tell Don to play Aguilar at 3B ROS. LOVE. How's Bleier in CF?
  14. Money means nothing here? Listen I'm not defending the guy here as he is terrible right now, however his home/away splits 19-21 are "slightly" skewed to home based on 2019 (2020-2021 he was neutral in both). Park factors don't explain this at all. He is monumentally a worse baseball player beyond anything anyone could have expected. There is no explanation for this beyond a radical physical decline where he can't hack it anymore literally and/or mentally something is off in life where he isn't focused. He could hit .225/.275/.400 and produce 1 WAR with his defense and that would be an epic downturn in production, and he's managed to do A LOT worse. It's truly breathtaking how bad he is. I mean some guys on fangraphs thought he was going to BREAK OUT this year and he's one of the worst players in baseball? Smart people liked him. It's really bizarre. He should be a floor 2+ WAR player based on 2019-2021. He is clearly not right now. That is the entire point. This also has nothing to do either with whether a smarter acquisition (Joc) could have been made to bridge to Bleday/Burdick, and spend more resources for a CF (which is obviously a better use of assets). I am just pointing out a severe lack of objectivity in saying "the worst" players. Garcia had been fine for years. He shockingly has the 28th most WAR of all OF 2017-2021 which is a pretty big sample size. He was a very solid starter in these years. There is certainly some hyperbole going on with a message board, but I'm just saying let's have some objectivity. Garcia signing looks terrible. Like you said - not bad in a vacuum though. That's all I am trying to say here.
  15. But that's the point - standing pat may be the right decision (even if they caused the current situation). Do we know if Lewin can play? Two months of testing bullpen arms out? How are Garrett, Rogers, Luzardo, and Rogers ending the year? Is Groshans going to hit for power end of year? Is Fortes this for real? The line in the sand for me is yes last offseason and failure to get a CF - remember I bailed on the team in MARCH. But practically, the real line in the sand is the "plant the flag move." It hasn't happened yet. So is that going to happen or endless cycle of hoping that happens and it does not. There is literally -0- reason to not plant the flag with a decision to keep Pablo so we'll see.
  16. Not to mention Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison. Reggie Abercrombie. Garcia had 5.3 WAR and effectively batted .265/.335/.450+ playing at worst average defense previous 3 seasons over 1200 PA. Like he sucks right now, but the constant theme here - some objectivity is necessary. Worst player ok? Ok then. Bass was terrible last year also.
  17. His statcast is terrible, but yes. Maybe he is hurt (physically or mentally or both!) and just needs time off. I have no explanation. You'd like to think he hits lefties and plays good defense at a minimum, and that gets him 1+ WAR over 450+ PA. As a floor. There is certainly more to like here. There are others though. Soler will be fine. And what's funny is, he's have the 2nd best statistical season of his career according to fangraphs ignoring his cup of coffee call up. He too should do a bit better, maybe 1.5+ WAR where he is a bit more 2019/post-2021 next year. He'll be in a contract year with a cheap 2024 (as opposed to a relatively expensive 2023) so hopefully $$$ is a motivator. I have to imagine if nothing more Stallings remembers he is a defensive first player and a 1 WAR defensive floor occurs. Fortes needs to be staring 90+ games next year regardless. This should be a 2+ WAR catching combo. Fortes really bailing them out here. Another great development. And then we get to Rogers. Another, can he honestly be this bad again? Or is Braxton so good Rogers goes to the bullpen and becomes a legitimate Andrew Miller level ace reliever? You'd imagine 150+ vastly improved innings are coming here from one of them. I don't know the answers. I do know they need to sell the farm (excluding Eury/Berry/Meyer/Eder only pretty much) for a longterm SS or CF, and then move around MLB payroll (Cooper, Berti, Wendle, Rojas, Anderson, Floro, Scott, Bleier, Okert, and Hernandez) to open up some money for the other of SS or CF. Bruce is going to dictate how expensive that player is and god willingly he doesn't tell Kim $80m. This team can work if they want. Or just pocket league money I guess.
  18. I'll take the over on 90% he's gone. Rojas can certainly go. Dream scenario is they go to $90-92m and can sneak in Correa (the LEADER) into that budget to "replace him" (they can do that by basically replacing Cooper, Anderson, Rojas, Floro, Hernandez, Bleier, and Berti.... with Lewin, Williams, "Correa", and three club controlled TBD relievers and club controlled backup IF/Groshans. Those relievers can be the returns for Anderson/Rojas/Berti/Cooper practically speaking). Team makes a lot of sense then once you trade Salas and friends for the CF..... Fortes/Stallings, Lewin, Jazz, Correa, CC SS/Groshans, Wendle, Williams/Groshans, Bleday, New trade CF FV50 or better, Sanchez, Garcia, Soler, and the full SP squad with top of bullpen Bender/Scott/Okert/Poteet/Neidert/Sixto/many RP flyers . I like this team if they can figure out the bullpen... and you'd hope all of Cooper/Anderson/Rojas/Berti in this scenario went for right now optionable RP. This is a big culture change with a new manager. It's handing Sandy, Correa, Jazz, and Pablo the keys and telling them go win some fucking games with the kids and the warm husks of Garcia and Soler. Like if Bruce can't spend this with Sandy/Pablo/SP crew, he's really garbage. He can "Jayson Werth" signing someone like Correa and run a bottom 23-25 payroll.
  19. We can reasonably disagree on percentage of Bruce blame. Kim is certainly # 2 in this hierarchy of suck for lack of CF, Soler/Aguilar/Cooper redundancy, Garcia contract, etc., but I do know her max percentage is 49% as trying to field a contender for $75m is insane. Das said this best - anything lower than $110m is criminal with what they get before the gate and tv deals.
  20. Everyone has control so the only frustration is timing. But yes if they do nothing major, it's the same offseason. Where is the CF? Are they going to roster Lewin, Cooper, and Soler and effectively have the triple 1B/DH redundancy AGAIN (this is a fear for me). etc etc. Endless cycle comments. I also read this and other threads as people are extremely upset but is what is is. I maintain the anger should be 90% directed at Bruce.
  21. We agree on Bass and bullpen strategy generally. It's ultimately a numbers game. For the passer's by, I'm assuming Marlins carry 21 pitchers on the 40 man roster (Meyer is IL designation) SP that must be protected - Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett (6) Back end SP/bulk relievers - Sixto (health permitting), Poteet, Neidert (Hernandez goes here too but I suspect they move on) (3) Non 40-man SP options - Eury and Eder if they rise fast (0) So practically speaking, I think we all agree these 11 guys throw 100% of starts next year? Anyone? So, they don't need any SP. e.g. this is why Pablo is important and to not give away like the Reds did with Mahle which is stupid. So if they can carry 21 pitchers.... that's 12 more RP only options for next year. Bender, Bleier, Scott, Okert, Soriano (40 man add), and Nardi (40 man add) are locks. So that's 6 more relievers to go, and only guy left that is "for sure" is Floro if they believe he's worth the $3.25-3.5m arbitration tender coming. He's a cost analysis for sure. Basically what I am saying here is - they have 5+ 40 man spots to add 5 more relievers. Of course, some of that may go to the Yacabonis/Holloway/Simpson/Reynolds/Palacois/King level prospect group if they believe they have talent (FWIW, Fangraphs things Simpson and Reynolds are locks). Frankly, this is a really good 21 pitcher pool PLUS EURY AND EDER for next year. Ill assume Floro is kept and FG is right on Nardi/Soriano/Simpson/Reynolds being protection locks. SP - Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett (Eury/Eder) SP/RP - Sixto, Poteet, Neidert RHP - Floro, Bender, ____, G. Soriano, S. Reynolds, _____, LHP - Scott, Bleier, Okert, Nardi, J. Simpson, _____ They probably trade one of Cooper/Berti/Rojas/Anderson for a RP (first blank line and opening day option with options), and then we're talking the 39th and 40th guys on the 40 man with the other two, so whether that is Holloway or a Rule V pick or they protect Zach King, who cares. Once you get past pitcher 20 in the organization, it's probably not going to be pretty. Ignoring the 2-3 massive bat upgrades, this is a great organizational depth chart. Especially when Meyer, Fulton, and maybe McCambley then get added for 2024.
  22. Really. Well I guess Aguilar is that crappy then! Which we knew. Maybe someone would pick him up on a DFA. Regardless doesn't change the farm system one way or another.
  23. What? Bass was an obvious sell high if they could do it and they got a great prospect for him. The chances of him repeating right now are low. I like Pop and thought he'd have a future here, but they can also replace him for a bet on a good prospect bat. The bullpen right now next year is probably.... Floro, Bender, Poteet, ______/Sulser Scott, Bleier, Rogers/Garrett (other in rotation after Luzardo and Cabrera), Okert 40 man - Sixto, Neidert, Soriano, Nardi, Reynolds, Simpson This is pretty solid in an unspectacular way, but the lefty SP trickle down and a healthy Sixto and Bender could change this pretty quickly. Maybe I'm wrong and Cabrera can't stay healthy and he moves here and it's all 3 lefties in the rotation. Who knows. I think they'll end up trading 1-2 of the infielders for relievers in the offseason at this point and we'll have 1-2 more names for this group. Given Eury and Eder are also coming which will reshuffle roles too, this is fine. Especially if they pull an Anderson/Richards/Thompson/Bender out of nowhere again.
  24. Thanks, but the pity party is in misery loves company zone. However they are going to be right unless there are wholesale changes come this offseason. Minimum 2+ major bat upgrades. Yesterday was just not the line in the sand for that though.
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