dim

I agree. All numbers I've seen shown he's grown as a hitter in his career. He went from a regular low .800 OPS guy for the first three years of his minor league career to a breakthrough in 2014. He's maintained solid contact rates, increased his power numbers and has recently bringing his on-base percentage back to where he had it early in his career (.350 OBP area). I know I mentioned him as a trade candidate earlier, but looking deeper into things I really believe in Bour as a player. He's a solid contributor whose presence away from the lineup has been felt horribly (as evidence by guys like Prado, Francoer, and Johnson in the middle of the lineup). I stand by trading Ozuna, and I still firmly believe there needs to be a shortstop replacement, regardless of how unlikely that is.

Trumbo is a classic guy who will be overpaid, regress and will not provide nearly as much as value as people believe. I'm totally against getting him when his value is clearly higher than it'll ever be. Fowler is interesting, but again I think he's out of the team's price range. We're also getting basically as much value from Ozuna as we would be getting from Fowler, so trading Ozuna (who isn't even arbitration eligible yet) and replacing him with a $10 million+ a year player is just a bad move. Hellickson is a guy who was putting up mid 4 and high 5 ERA's the last three years before an ok season now. Like every free agent, he'll be overpaid and is more likely to regress to what he was than remain a low end #3 starter. In terms of gambles this team needs to make, he is likely not the right one. All four of these guys signing would increase payroll by an average of $30 million to $40 million all while improving the team by maybe a single win or two. I like the ideas, but I don't see this as an improving the team kind of offseason.

It's fine the Marlins haven't traded Ramos or Ozuna yet. The team has spent the entire season in a playoff race and had no reason to ship off two players who play important roles in that. The problem with a message board atmosphere is that everybody here is anxious to make moves all the time. Neither of those guys are even being considered to be traded until the playoffs end. I don't even see how we killed Ramos' or Ozuna's value. Both of those guys, despite recent struggles, have had really solid seasons that have only improved their value compared to where they were at the end of last season. If we want to, we could definitely fill some empty spaces in our farm system and potentially our major league squad by offering these guys in trades. I listed it before but the players the team should look to placing in offers this offseason are Ozuna, Ramos, Bour, Dietrich, and Koehler. Ozuna/Ramos are pieces to rebuild the major league squad while Bour/Dietrich/Koehler would have to be guys to help fill back up the farm. The only problem with this is doing any of that would be admitting that their are flaws with the current construct of the team and breaking it up a bit. I don't consider getting rid of these guys a fire sale or giving up on next season at all. I view it as 5 guys who are either inconsistent, playing above value, or would net us something valuable from other teams. I'm repeating myself from other threads but when I'm building the team next season, the guys I'm looking to build around are 1. Lineup wise (Yelich, Stanton, Gordon, Realmuto, Prado). 2. SP wise (Fernandez, Conley, Chen). 3. Bullpen wise (Everybody since I like our major league guys and have ok farm depth at this position). Anybody else I feel is expendable in one way or another. I'm worried that the team will try David Phelps in the rotation to start next season when he's perfect for the 8th inning role. There's definitely a strategy that can make this team competitive. But the depth has to be addressed. It's not a one year fix in that regard. But I think there are ways to begin improving the depth while keeping the major league team competitive in 2017.

No team in major league baseball would've traded a guy playing like Ozuna was while they led the wild card. PR-wise that kind of move would be a nightmare. Ozuna would net us a nice starting pitcher in the offseason regardless of his recent struggles. He's a 25 year old outfielder with 30 home run a season power who isn't even arbitration eligible until 2017. He's got great value in terms of the player he is. The problem becomes the offseason market. There's a ton of outfielders available to get this free agency. Teams will go there first before trying to trade for Ozuna. If we even look to trade Ozuna, we won't be able to find teams even giving realistic offers until January at the earliest.

Free agents I remember the team signing following the 2012 debacle are Salty, Morse, Chen, Ichiro, Polanco, Olivo, Pierre, Marmol, Wolf, Jones, McGehee, and Don Kelly. The real notable names in that list to talk about are Salty, Morse, Chen, Ichiro, Jones, and McGehee. I'd say McGehee and Ichiro have been success stories for this franchise, signed for cheap and have been important contributors. Salty, Morse, Chen, and Jones are guys we gave our real free agency money to and have seen fail spectacularly. Chen is too early to decide but the other three just didn't do their jobs. To be completely honest, there aren't enough "real" free agent signings to form a real opinion of Hill's ability to sign free agents. I agreed with signing Salty, Morse, and Chen at the time that they joined. All were reasonable contracts that simply backfired. I don't remember too many if any egregiously bad signings that have hurt the team's cap long term yet (although Stanton will get there). It's interesting how the Marlins "big" free agent signings the last four years would be considered middle of the line moves for just about every other franchise. Looking back it just shows even more how little resources Hill and the front office are given to work with. A few bad draft picks, which is what has happened, and suddenly the team has no depth because of an ownership unwilling to give his team a fair chance.

He's a damn good starter. As the season gets further out of hand I actually wouldn't mind seeing him get a few starts in September. It really would only help our evaluation of him as a player to see what he can do, even if it's a complete failure. I've said and still believe Brice has MLB starter potential and find it weird how they've turned him into a reliever. Might've been in hopes of him joining the 'pen in a playoff run in September but he was one of the few legit pitching prospects in our system.

He's not even destined for the bullpen. He's on pace to be a career AAA guy and is only here out of emergency and lack of minor league depth. It's like when we used to call up Villanueva once a year to start a game or two. I'm surprised they didn't call up Flores. He's a better pitcher and last pitched in the 26th, giving him the proper 4 days rest before this start.

I stated my opinion on this article previously, and I briefly went over what I'd want to do to address the problems with the team. I don't actually believe there's big problems with the lineup. I think looking at it, there is one spot that needs an immediate upgrade (shortstop) and a few others that can be done better. The biggest problem with the team is the starting pitching, regardless of what has been the problem now in August. The key moves this offseason in my own view are: 1. Re-Sign Martin Prado (I don't care if it's an overpay, I don't care if it's obvious he's due to regress. He's a steady enough player that it's worth bringing him back). 2. Sign two starting pitchers (From my view, there are three pitchers that should be given automatic rotation spots next season. They are Fernandez, Conley, and Chen. The last two should be up for grabs). 3. Trade players who are at high values (AJ Ramos, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich, Tom Koehler, potentially even Justin Bour). Use the value these players have as a means to fix the problems in the starting rotation first and foremost. Unfortunately, I don't see the Marlins being able to acquire a new shortstop given the market in free agency is putrid (Darwin Barney being the best player available). I'm not going to speculate what exactly the prospects or players we should trade for, but this would be the three areas of focus. I actually believe the bullpen is fine as currently constructed and that there are nice reinforcements available in our minor league system. When I look at the lineup, the pieces I see as "cornerstone, don't move" players are Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto, Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich. Yelich is probably the guy I keep at all costs, while I'd listen to offers if they are ridiculously good deals. Realmuto, Gordon, and Yelich are all great value contracts that won't be free agents for a while. The rotation has nobody I see this way. Obviously Jose is a franchise guy, but he'll command $200 million+ in free agency and seemingly has no intention of re-signing. That makes him the most tradeable guy on our team. I don't see the team moving Fernandez until after the 2017 season due to a number of reasons, but he'll eventually be sent away. I don't think there's an easy fix with the team. Some questionable trades and poor drafting have left the team so devoid of depth that the only pieces we have left that have enough value to trade are on the major league roster. It's going to take some savvy moves and taking some risks that may not make the fans happy (that means trading an All-Star like Ramos, a great young player like Ozuna, or possibly even taking what you can for Fernandez now). The front office needs to think BOLD after this season. Staying the course is the wrong move, as I don't see small tweaks turning this team into an 88 win squad next season. Either that or they just have to do better in long term building.

He's actually the most major league ready pitcher left in our system if you discount Kendry Flores. That's the problem.

He's basically a career AAA starter (or at least he will be). 26 years old, did poorly in AAA and got sent down to AA this year where he's posting a mid 4 ERA. He has little to no major league value long term.

Should we tell him?

Ozuna has an .800 OPS this season. Among outfielders that puts him right in line with Jay Bruce. Bruce was just traded this deadline and netted what I would describe as a not so great return. Lets keep in mind here that Bruce is on a $51 million contract and is 29 while Ozuna is arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2017. Ozuna's value is greater than that of Bruce's. That said I'm worried what the return would be. The market is saturated with top outfielders for the best team's to sign. Bautista, Cespedes, Reddick, Fowler, Trumbo, etc... are all free agents and available to sign without giving up prospects. Team's won't be fighting to trade for Ozuna when there are better and more reliable options available to sign in a bidding war. If Ozuna were to get traded, it wouldn't be until late in the process (so possibly even close to spring training). It's tough to gauge at the moment what his value would be, but I don't think it is as high as some people on this board believe it is.

I'll disagree with this sentiment 100% and provide two examples from within our own division. The Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals. Both had bottom 10 farm systems in baseball going into 2014. This is around the same time (a tiny bit earlier) when the Marlins farm system when in the tank. The Marlins were generally ranked slightly below the Nationals and above the Braves in terms of farm systems. The Braves went full rebuild to get that farm system back. They traded for Dansby Swanson in one of the most lopsided deals in recent history. They acquired top 20 pitching prospect Sean Newcomb with their first round pick in 2014. Ozzie Albies was acquired as an international signing. Kolby Allard is killing it as their first round pick in 2015. All top 100 prospects now. In 2014, the Nationals were considered to have a system that had Lucas Giolito and absolutely nothing else. Similar to where we are now, they had a good major league squad and a dead farm. What did they do? Trea Turner in 2014 with the late 1st rounder. Erick Fedde with their other first rounder. Victor Robles with their international signing. Carter Kieboom with a damn good start with their 1st rounder this year. They've also hit with their international players. It can be done. You have to hit on those draft picks. THAT is the #1 place where the Marlins have failed the last four years. Failing on every first round pick following Heaney has been a huge blunder for this franchise and has set the farm system back horribly. Obviously the later picks haven't worked either, but looking around the league that happens to most teams. Drafting is a problem. I stand by my statement that if the scouting department hasn't had a complete rehaul within the past few years, it is in desperate need of one.

With all that scenario spelled out it still stands that Stanton's contract is now close to unmovable with the future money looming and an extensive injury history. His value in a trade is still extremely high given 40 home run potential, something only a single handful of guys have in the league anymore. That's why I honestly believe the Dodgers would give up Urias and top prospects to bring a hometown hero in the prime of his career to Los Angeles. The marketing dollars that Stanton would bring is unbelievable (he's not a bad looking guy, he's personable, he's well spoken, and he's from the area). It would more than make up for the back-end contract. It's honestly the perfect place for him to thrive in his career. But it won't happen. Not until that 6th year is looming anyway. I have no doubt going into year 5 that the front office will be shopping his contract and likely find no takers. But right now, especially with the All-Star game coming to Miami, Stanton stays put. Same with Jose.

The Stanton trade isn't happening. But lets for a second play the scenario that was discussed. Obviously Corey Seager is now off the board in any trade talks. He's far too good and a future multiple time all star. http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-dugout-part-3-20151111-htmlstory.html In this article from last year, the names brought up in a Dodgers trade were Yasiel Puig, Julio Urias, and Chris Anderson. The Marlins would definitely want Urias, Puig is available for cheap (although the Mattingly issue is still there), and Anderson is 24 years old and having a poor season in AAA. Given the trade market at the moment, I'd say it would take 1 established major league, 2 top prospects, and a lower level prospect for the Marlins to see a Stanton trade as equal. Urias would be the established major leaguer. Given the Dodgers minor league system, Jose De Leon (who is pitching great in AAA) and maybe Alex Verdugo or Yusniel Diaz would be the top prospects (young outfielders with high ceilings). Throw in another low level pitching prospect and I think that's the deal. So lets say the Dodgers come to us and say we'll give you Jose Urias, Jose De Leon, Yusniel Diaz and Jacob Rhame for Stanton and another piece (say Dietrich, Hechavarria, or Tom Koehler). Urias joins the rotation as a potential Jose Fernandez 2.0, De Leon is able to join the rotation immediately in 2017, Diaz is a 19-year outfielder who already has a full season experience in A+ ball, and Rhame is another potential MLB arm to throw into the bullpen in 2017. Who says no here? Likely both teams, but I think in terms of comparable trades this one seems right.

Reading that Baseball Prospectus post, it's nice to see advanced statistics backing up the argument I've been making all season that our offense has exceeded expectations and is a big reason why we've been as good as we are. Realmuto, Ozuna, Ichiro, Prado, Bour, and Dietrich have all played far better than most people were even hoping they would. The only player on that list that I disagree about is Yelich, whom I've thought was a multiple time All-Star in the waiting for a while now. Surprised to see Adam Conley so low on the list. I thought he's played above expectations personally. His DRA (which basically accounts for things that regular ERA doesn't) is in the upper 4's, while Koehler is showing that he'd be a 5+ pitcher (although advance numbers have been saying this about him every year and are always true. He's a ridiculous anomaly always). The biggest thing I like that the article affirms is my stance that injuries are not the problem with this team. They can't keep going to the "well, we suffered injuries" well every season to explain problems. There are big problems with the way the team is built that need to be addressed. The rotation still needs a complete overhaul outside of Fernandez and the lineup will need tweaks (with performance going down once guys like Bour/Prado/Ozuna/Realmuto regress to the mean). Basically, I don't see this team on the up going forward. This season statistically is close to the best that it will perform, meaning the ceiling is around mid 80 wins. If you want to be a perennial playoff contender, it simply has to be better than that.

I mentioned here back in 2013 that I resigned myself to Hech being the team's starting shortstop until 2018. It was obvious how irrationally the front office loved him. I'd rather have Miguel Rojas start everyday at shortstop than Hech now. I think it's time.

I don't even care if he's an above average defensive shortstop. He's so bad offensively that it shouldn't even matter anymore.

Fun fact: Hechavarria has the second lowest OPS in the majors, only trailing Alexi Ramirez. He was 11th lowest in 2014 and lowest in 2013. Point being 2015 was clearly an anomaly (wasn't even that great then) and he is easily one of the worst hitters in baseball and has been since he joined the Marlins. I have no idea how he should be given a major league starting job next season. He deserves more sh*t than he's given.

I hate everything.

Loved Trea Turner. His stock fell mightly come the draft though because of money demands I remember. He was also seen as a safe pick, a likely to make the majors but potentially become a mediocre career player (basically a Hechavarria). He was known more for his defensive prowess than his hitting in college I remember. Nobody saw him hitting this well this quickly in the majors. That said again he was a top 10 pick that only fell a little further because only the top franchises had the money to pay the bonus he wanted. He wasn't in top 2 discussion beyond the first few months of draft talk. Justification for Kolek was raw talent you can't find at 18 years old with mechanic issues that minor league coaches could fix. They couldn't, and it ultimately led to arm troubles. If Rodon wasn't in that draft, I would defend the Kolek pick to this day. He was clearly one of the top young players at that time. It's also one of the caveats of the draft process. The bigger problem than failing on the #2 pick is not doing well in later rounds. There have been no steal picks taken and very few if any since 2012 that have shown consistent major league abilities.

Even if Loria does that it would be a terrible idea. That's the point I'm making. Mattingly and Puig would bicker and lead to so much unnecessary dysfunction in the clubhouse. It just isn't necessary and so many people want to throw away MORE prospects at the chance that Puig becomes what he used to be. It isn't happening, and it shouldn't happen. And if it does by some weird unexpected reason happen, it is a terrible idea for many reasons.

And I agree. I was firmly team Rodon. Just the Kolek pick wasn't necessarily bad if it would've been any other year. He had Jose Fernandez projections and with the right coaches helping him develop a secondary pitch and command he could've become that. He's just shown absolutely no control in the minors. Completely disappointing. I was going to bring up the recent trades of players the Marlins could be using right now, but there's been some fallback with that. The Dodgers trade, we gave away Heaney who is on the 60 day DL, Hatcher who is on the 60 day DL, Barnes is batting .130 in 23 AB's and Kike Hernandez around the same. It doesn't get talked much anymore but based on this season we won the Dodgers trade by a mile. The Yankees trade we sent away Nathan Eovaldi, who has an ERA near 5, Garrett Jones who is I think retired, and Domingo German who got TJ surgery for Martin Prado and David Phelps, two huge contributions this season. The Casey McGehee trade got us Luis Castillo and Kendry Flores, two of the only pitching prospects left on our system. The Cishek trade has been a wash, but Cishek's salary for Barraclough giving the same basic production has been a net win. The Astros trade of Martes, Moran, and Marisnick for Cosart, Hernandez, and Wates along with the Latos for Desclafani and Wallach trades have been the biggest negatives so far. Martes is a top MLB prospect and Desclafani has an ERA under 3 this season. That said the Latos trade made sense at the time and Martes wasn't nearly the prospect then that he is now. Looking through everything, there's been good and there has been bad. The farm has been hurt bad with some trades I feel were questionable this season, but a few specific trades recently have been big wins (Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants trades were clear wins in our favor). It's hard to judge him as anything other than an average GM based on what I've looked back at. All I know is our scouting department is awful now because recent drafts have led to absolutely zero top 100 prospects or anything close to it. That is what I'm most upset about.

Kolek by itself wasn't a bad pick at the time. 100 MPH fastball with huge potential. It's only the fact that Rodon was available that the pick became incredibly frustrating.

We also don't have the prospects to trade for him. Even at his low value I don't see Luis Castillo and Stone Garrett catching their attention.