August 12, 200421 yr Seriously though, looks like Florida is about to get PWNED. 506596[/snapback] i think PWNED is a gross overstatement considering it'll be cuba's sloppy seconds with relatively low-speed winds. the only thing that might get PWNED are my mom's little pepper plants. 506681[/snapback] so 105 mph winds are sloppy seconds? :plain anything over 100 mph could send a piece of plywood through a door. 506690[/snapback] Were you aware for Andrew?
August 12, 200421 yr Seriously though, looks like Florida is about to get PWNED. 506596[/snapback] i think PWNED is a gross overstatement considering it'll be cuba's sloppy seconds with relatively low-speed winds. the only thing that might get PWNED are my mom's little pepper plants. 506681[/snapback] so 105 mph winds are sloppy seconds? :plain anything over 100 mph could send a piece of plywood through a door. 506690[/snapback] Were you aware for Andrew? 506715[/snapback] i was only three.
August 12, 200421 yr Seriously though, looks like Florida is about to get PWNED. 506596[/snapback] i think PWNED is a gross overstatement considering it'll be cuba's sloppy seconds with relatively low-speed winds. the only thing that might get PWNED are my mom's little pepper plants. 506681[/snapback] so 105 mph winds are sloppy seconds? :plain anything over 100 mph could send a piece of plywood through a door. 506690[/snapback] Were you aware for Andrew? 506715[/snapback] i was only three. 506724[/snapback] :plain
August 12, 200421 yr Seriously though, looks like Florida is about to get PWNED. 506596[/snapback] i think PWNED is a gross overstatement considering it'll be cuba's sloppy seconds with relatively low-speed winds. the only thing that might get PWNED are my mom's little pepper plants. 506681[/snapback] so 105 mph winds are sloppy seconds? :plain anything over 100 mph could send a piece of plywood through a door. 506690[/snapback] Is there a possiblity of 100mph winds by the time it reaches land? I really don't feel like boarding up the craploads of windows at my house.
August 12, 200421 yr Seriously though, looks like Florida is about to get PWNED. 506596[/snapback] i think PWNED is a gross overstatement considering it'll be cuba's sloppy seconds with relatively low-speed winds. the only thing that might get PWNED are my mom's little pepper plants. 506681[/snapback] so 105 mph winds are sloppy seconds? :plain anything over 100 mph could send a piece of plywood through a door. 506690[/snapback] Is there a possiblity of 100mph winds by the time it reaches land? I really don't feel like boarding up the craploads of windows at my house. 506761[/snapback] depends where you live and they really aren't sure. but if you are on the gulf coast side you have a higher probability of the storm hitting you. they are really iffy on the intensity, these storm are very weird and the science of forecasting intensity is not as good as the forecast track and even that is iffy. for example models as early as yesterday took the storm into the gulf in between cuba and the yucatan, but yesterday's 5pm (i think) advisory really shocked the forecasters because the models suddenly took a dramatic curve towards us. so the best advice is to watch tv.
August 12, 200421 yr depends where you live and they really aren't sure. but if you are on the gulf coast side you have a higher probability of the storm hitting you. they are really iffy on the intensity, these storm are very weird and the science of forecasting intensity is not as good as the forecast track and even that is iffy. for example models as early as yesterday took the storm into the gulf in between cuba and the yucatan, but yesterday's 5pm (i think) advisory really shocked the forecasters because the models suddenly took a dramatic curve towards us. so the best advice is to watch tv. 506790[/snapback] dude, stop exaggerating. it's got 75 mph winds. it's about to go through (i.e. rain on) jamaica. then it's projected to go through the caymans, then cuba, then the keys, then west florida. this storm is like a fly on the bottom of my shoe as far as its threat to miami is concerned.
August 12, 200421 yr here's the dramatic shift i was talking about: 11 am Tuesday advisory: 5 pm Tuesday advisory: here is where the forecast took the dramatic turn 11 pm tuesday advisory: so in a 12 hour period the storm forecast, made a HUGE jump. the 11pm advisory is coming out in 40 minutes. they predict by 2 am the winds will go up to 85mph.
August 12, 200421 yr depends where you live and they really aren't sure. but if you are on the gulf coast side you have a higher probability of the storm hitting you. they are really iffy on the intensity, these storm are very weird and the science of forecasting intensity is not as good as the forecast track and even that is iffy. for example models as early as yesterday took the storm into the gulf in between cuba and the yucatan, but yesterday's 5pm (i think) advisory really shocked the forecasters because the models suddenly took a dramatic curve towards us. so the best advice is to watch tv. 506790[/snapback] dude, stop exaggerating. it's got 75 mph winds. it's about to go through (i.e. rain on) jamaica. then it's projected to go through the caymans, then cuba, then the keys, then west florida. this storm is like a fly on the bottom of my shoe. 506821[/snapback] exactly it got 75 mph winds NOW. they expect it to reach 105 a strong cat 2 by the time it is closest to miami.
August 12, 200421 yr it will only be a catagory 1, its not that bad. 506828[/snapback] no they expect to be a strong cat to with 105 mph winds. Look at the intensity forecast for 48 hours. (105)
August 12, 200421 yr it will only be a catagory 1, its not that bad. 506828[/snapback] no they expect to be a strong cat to with 105 mph winds. Look at the intensity forecast for 48 hours. (105) 506837[/snapback] is your trailer strapped down good?
August 12, 200421 yr it will only be a catagory 1, its not that bad. 506828[/snapback] no they expect to be a strong cat to with 105 mph winds. Look at the intensity forecast for 48 hours. (105) 506837[/snapback] is your trailer strapped down good? 506855[/snapback] That's what i forgot to do!!! :plain *hits head*
August 12, 200421 yr Cuba > Category 1 Hurricane Nothing to worry about at all, won't be triple digits IF it comes.
August 12, 200421 yr Cuba > Category 1 Hurricane Nothing to worry about at all, won't be triple digits IF it comes. 506868[/snapback] i hope so. :plain
August 12, 200421 yr here's the dramatic shift i was talking about: so in a 12 hour period the storm forecast, made a HUGE jump. the 11pm advisory is coming out in 40 minutes. they predict by 2 am the winds will go up to 85mph. 506824[/snapback] youre not looking at the maps properly. there was no "dramatic shift" at all. you're looking at the end of the forecast route for each of the maps and getting fooled a little bit. like you pointed out, forecasting storm paths several days in advance isn't an exact science, but if you look 2-3 circles ahead on all of the maps, the projections as far as path have been pretty much 100% on the money. you're looking too far ahead....if you're gonna look 5 circles ahead, pretty much all you should be looking at is the shape of the cone. oh, and guess what? miami doesn't even manage to fall within the latest "cone" projection on the weather channel website. hurricane winds are a non issue to folks living in miami.
August 12, 200421 yr here's the dramatic shift i was talking about: so in a 12 hour period the storm forecast, made a HUGE jump. the 11pm advisory is coming out in 40 minutes. they predict by 2 am the winds will go up to 85mph. 506824[/snapback] youre not looking at the maps properly. there was no "dramatic shift" at all. you're looking at the end of the forecast route for each of the maps and getting fooled a little bit. like you pointed out, forecasting storm paths several days in advance isn't an exact science, but if you look 2-3 circles ahead on all of the maps, the projections have been pretty much 100% on the money. you're looking too far ahead....if you're gonna look 5 circles ahead, pretty much all you should be looking at is the shape of the cone. oh, and guess what? miami doesn't even manage to fall within the latest "cone" projection on the weather channel website. hurricane winds are a non issue to folks living in miami. 506875[/snapback] dude the first and second map are different. the 8am position and the 8 pm position on the first and third maps are in completely areas.
August 12, 200421 yr dude the first and second map are different. the 8am position and the 8 pm position on the first and third maps are in completely areas. 506887[/snapback] yes, i understood that perfectly. read the post again. actually, don't worry about it, just get your panties out of a bunch if you live in miami. i dont even know why this thread is in this forum....it should be on a devil rays board.
August 12, 200421 yr marlinfan, i can see into the future. your naborhood now: after the storm: 506893[/snapback] :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol but sad for people who own the houses. i'm not worried about me i'm worried about capefish. :plain
August 12, 200421 yr marlinfan, i can see into the future. your naborhood now: after the storm: 506893[/snapback] :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol but sad for people who own the houses. i'm not worried about me i'm worried about capefish. :plain 506898[/snapback] lol
August 12, 200421 yr marlinfan, i can see into the future. your naborhood now: after the storm: 506893[/snapback] :umbrella :lolup :rofl
August 12, 200421 yr 11pm advisory had no changes still 75 mph. the new forecast track is basically the same and hurricane watches issued from Tampa to Key Largo. according to max mayfield a warning for parts of the keys MIGHT go into affect thursday morning.
August 12, 200421 yr It probably won't be much other than a really bad thunderstorm once it reaches pbc.
August 12, 200421 yr They will get the NOAA sampling data into the models tonight, and the results will be available for the 5 am advisory. So if there is going to be another shift in the forecast track, we should see it in the morning. As Charley moves away from Jamaica, it will be in an area of low shear, plus warm waters, and will have a good chance to strengthen tomorrow. It is forecast to cross the lowlands of Cuba, so will only be somewhat weakened by the crossing. Please keep your eye on it, as a Cat 2 or possibly even a 3 are not out of the question.
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