instead of adding make up days they might just extend wednesdays to full days like they did in '99....

Well, we've only missed 2 days, so I guess we could afford to miss a couple more :arms

I wouldn't mind having a 3 day week next week :confused

Probably no school monday and tuesday for most of florida

570002[/snapback]

If it hits on Saturday, Miami-Dade and possibly Broward will most likely have school Tuesday, if not Monday.

I am going to put up my guess now: This heads a further south than the track currently has it, hits in South Florida, turns north and goes up the Land O'Lakes.

569637[/snapback]

Doubt it. :confused

Oh well... better get ready again...

THE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IS A BIT OF A PUZZLE THIS MORNING. AN AIR

FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE

OF 969 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT WINDS OF NEAR 90 KT.

HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT

AT 700 MB WERE ONLY 74 KT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CLOSER TO 65 KT

SURFACE WINDS. POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME COOLING OF

THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT...BUT ALSO SHOW A MUCH LESS

DEFINED EYE. BASED MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A

DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS NOW

CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ELONGATE

SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP JEANNE ON

A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE

TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED

FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO MISS THE FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS

DRIVES JEANNE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE

RECURVATURE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO

EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JEANNE ON THE LEFT SIDE

OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR...AS THE RIDGE TO THE

NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL

AND GFS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AGAIN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN

THE FIRST 12 HR.

 

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT JEANNE CURRENTLY HAS A BROAD WIND

FIELD...WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-45 NM. BETWEEN THAT

AND THE COLD UPWELLING WATER THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER...

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY FOR 12 HR OR SO. BEYOND THAT

TIME...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE OVER 82F WATER AND REACH 83-84F WATER BY

36 HR. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IF THE

STORM STRUCTURE HAS REORGANIZED BY THAT TIME...AND THE INTENSITY

FORECAST CALLS FOR JEANNE TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THIS

IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL. AFTER 48 HR...A

COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND

INTERACTION SHOULD PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING.

 

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR

THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL

BAHAMAS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST

COAST AT THIS TIME.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

000

WTNT31 KNHC 241142

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

 

...JEANNE CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...

 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...

ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE

WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING

AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM

FLORIDA CITY TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE

WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN

SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

 

WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS

YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE

WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE LISTENING

TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE HURRICANE

SITUATION.

 

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 315

MILES...505 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF

JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF

JEANNE.

 

TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE

ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL

BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 11 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

$$

000

WTNT31 KNHC 241441

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 44

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

 

...JEANNE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREK TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...

 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...

ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE

WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING

AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM

FLORIDA CITY TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36

HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN

SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

 

WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS

YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS

IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE

LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE

HURRICANE SITUATION.

 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 290

MILES... 470 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER

OF JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF

JEANNE.

 

TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE

ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL

BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 72.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

$$

000

WTNT31 KNHC 242029

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 45

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

 

...JEANNE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD

TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

 

...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE

WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO

ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...

ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE

WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING

AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST

FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO

ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND

SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS

YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS

IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE

LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE

HURRICANE SITUATION.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF

FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND

NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY...INCLUDING FLORIDA

BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225

MILES... 360 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 400

MILES... 645 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON

THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER

OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG

WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE

CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON

THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4

FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF

THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL

ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

 

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF

JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

 

TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE

ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL

BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 73.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM

EDT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

$$

400 miles east of Miami...

Hurricane Fact:

 

 

A single state hasn't been hit by four hurricanes in a single season since Texas in 1886.

They done put us on a warning.

000

WTNT41 KNHC 242059

TCDAT1

HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER DATA...INDICATE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED.

WHILE RECON DATA ALSO INDICATES CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS HAVE DEVELOPED

...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE...OR SFMR...WIND

DATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF

STRENGTHENING. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 97 KT AT

5000 FEET AND THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WIND WAS 87 KT. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER SINCE THE

SURFACE PRESSURE IS NOW 965 MB...WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 96

KT SURFACE WINDS.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10....BUT THE TREND IN THE LAST TWO

RECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGESTS A MOTION OF POSSIBLY 270/11. THE

LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...BUT THERE REMAIN

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FUTURE

TRACK OF JEANNE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTH

AND EASTWARD SHIFT AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE JEANNE TO ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST BEFORE TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

AND PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA

MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE

NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF

TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING

BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE

NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA

BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER

MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT

LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS

WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO

MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE

CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD

AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN

DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT

THE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE

BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST TRACK.

 

NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND NEARLY A 5F SST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE

EASTERN AND WESTERN EYEWALL...CLEARLY INDCIATING THAT JEANNE HAS

CREATED A LOT OF COLD UPWELLING UNDERNEATH THE HURRICANE.

UNFORTUNATELY...JEANNE IS NOW MOVING FASTER AWAY FROM THOSE

UNFAVORABLE OCEAN CONDITIONS AND TOWARD MUCH WARMER WATER...83-84F

...LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE

CURRENT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE

LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THEREFORE...STEADY INTENSIFICATION

...POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 3/100 KT...IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS JEANNE UP

TO 98 KT AND 99 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS....RESPECTIVELY.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

im tired of this sh*t!!

 

no power for a couple days probly :thumbdown

 

plus our roof sounded real weird during frances, now with 70+ mph winds expected, we could have a problem...

im tired of this sh*t!!

 

no power for a couple days probly :thumbdown

 

plus our roof sounded real weird during frances, now with 70+ mph winds expected, we could have a problem...

570797[/snapback]

What was the sound? During Charley my roof constantly kept rumbling and cracking...

im tired of this sh*t!!

 

no power for a couple days probly :thumbdown

 

plus our roof sounded real weird during frances, now with 70+ mph winds expected, we could have a problem...

570797[/snapback]

What was the sound? During Charley my roof constantly kept rumbling and cracking...

570809[/snapback]

like the nails coming loose...

DONT TAKE CHANCES

 

Go for safety people :thumbup

Hurricane comes in to wipe out the weekend, and then we have school Monday I bet. Just great..didn't even give us a day off :thumbdown

000

WTNT31 KNHC 250240

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 46

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

 

...CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY...

 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM

FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE

OKEECHOBEE.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...

ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE

WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING

AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND

GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA

SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND

SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED

NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY

AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD

ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE SUWANEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA

BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

 

WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL

LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE

WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE

LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE

HURRICANE SITUATION.

 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE

OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...

LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES..220 KM...EAST OF GREAT

ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...EAST OF THE

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24

HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND

JEANNE HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL

IN FLORIDA.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG

WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE

CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON

THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4

FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF

THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL

ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

 

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF

JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

 

TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE

ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL

BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 74.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM

EDT.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

$$