:geek

000

WTNT31 KNHC 140837

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

 

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST.

EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.

VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN

ISLANDS.

 

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE

NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

 

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT

190 MILES... 300 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.

VIRGIN ISLANDS.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH

...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. A RECENT WIND REPORT FROM THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE WAS 37

MPH FROM THE SSW AND TD-11 SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER

THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER

AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

 

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 62.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

 

FORECASTER JARVINEN

 

 

$$

000

WTNT41 KNHC 140858

TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

 

A RECENT WIND OBSERVATION FROM THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE WAS SSW/32

KTS. AND THE PRESSURE HAS GONE DOWN ANOTHER MILLIBAR TO 1009. THE

SYSTEM IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. SATELLITE T NUMBERS ARE

T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 32 KTS. THE

SYSTEM IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR REGIME AT THE MOMENT AND SHOULD DEVELOP

INTO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE UPPER LEVEL

WESTERLIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN

THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.

 

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS

FROM THE NORTH...PART OF THE OUTFLOW FROM IVAN... WILL IMPACT THE

SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS 200 MILLIBAR WIND FIELD

ANIMATIONS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY

STRUGGLE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO

OVER COME THIS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE SHIPS SOLUTION IS

FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. TD-11 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A

LARGE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. A PORTION OF THIS SAME RIDGE IS WEDGED

BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN AND IS FORECAST BY MOST

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS

SCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER ABOUT 36 TO 48

HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY IVAN.

 

FORECASTER JARVINEN

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.6N 62.2W 30 KT

12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.4N 63.6W 35 KT

24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.5N 65.3W 45 KT

36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 67.1W 50 KT

48HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 68.8W 55 KT

72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.6N 70.7W 60 KT

96HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 72.0W 65 KT

120HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 73.4W 70 KT

Hell, that sucker could hit anywhere on the Eastern Seaboard. :confused

Don't fear. ]

 

Time to buy some more cookies....

thanks for the picture MP.

Here's the 5pm

its not gonna hit Miami....Damn weve been getting lucky

its not gonna hit Miami....Damn weve been getting lucky

558376[/snapback]

 

And how do you know that, Mr. Max Mayfield?

its not gonna hit Miami....Damn weve been getting lucky

558376[/snapback]

 

And how do you know that, Mr. Max Mayfield?

558385[/snapback]

Nice. :lol

:thumbdown Max Mayfield

:thumbdown Max Mayfield

558401[/snapback]

Max Mayfield has been one of the best directors the NHC has seen Cape. Talk all you want about Ed Crappaport. But what has Mayfield done? The government controls what is released and what isn't. Easy as that.

its not gonna hit Miami....Damn weve been getting lucky

558376[/snapback]

 

And how do you know that, Mr. Max Mayfield?

558385[/snapback]

Nice. :lol

558393[/snapback]

Speaking of "Mr. Max Mayfield" attempts.. :lol

Anywho: i think he's speaking by following the track and models, shows it going northward.

:thumbdown Max Mayfield

558401[/snapback]

Max Mayfield has been one of the best directors the NHC has seen Cape. Talk all you want about Ed Crappaport. But what has Mayfield done? The government controls what is released and what isn't. Easy as that.

558404[/snapback]

More of what he has not done. Jerry was better because he used to show you what the hurricane of the strength has done and can do. His favorite to get people out of the Keys was Betsy sending a title wave onto US1 in Key Largo. Jerry was more active to the public, Max is too laid back for my tastes.

:thumbdown Max Mayfield

558401[/snapback]

Max Mayfield has been one of the best directors the NHC has seen Cape. Talk all you want about Ed Crappaport. But what has Mayfield done? The government controls what is released and what isn't. Easy as that.

558404[/snapback]

More of what he has not done. Jerry was better because he used to show you what the hurricane of the strength has done and can do. His favorite to get people out of the Keys was Betsy sending a title wave onto US1 in Key Largo. Jerry was more active to the public, Max is too laid back for my tastes.

558420[/snapback]

Laid back?

 

 

No offense CApe, but Max probably hasn't seen his home since a month ago. He is doing what most hurricane directors never had to do.

:thumbdown Max Mayfield

558401[/snapback]

Max Mayfield has been one of the best directors the NHC has seen Cape. Talk all you want about Ed Crappaport. But what has Mayfield done? The government controls what is released and what isn't. Easy as that.

558404[/snapback]

More of what he has not done. Jerry was better because he used to show you what the hurricane of the strength has done and can do. His favorite to get people out of the Keys was Betsy sending a title wave onto US1 in Key Largo. Jerry was more active to the public, Max is too laid back for my tastes.

558420[/snapback]

Laid back?

 

 

No offense CApe, but Max probably hasn't seen his home since a month ago. He is doing what most hurricane directors never had to do.

558436[/snapback]

he's always been this way, even when he was assistant director.

And how do you know that, Mr. Max Mayfield?

 

Look at the track buddy its going into the Atlantic

Here's another track

And how do you know that, Mr. Max Mayfield?

 

Look at the track buddy its going into the Atlantic

558661[/snapback]

 

 

seems to me that we're pretty much in the middle of the margin of error

 

 

It's way to early to start making predictions that we're out of the woods with it...

its not gonna hit Miami...everyone take the shutters down

its not gonna hit Miami...everyone take the shutters down

558830[/snapback]

Weren't you screaming "OMG HIT MIAMI" earlier?

70mph, 991mb

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

 

...JEANNE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS RAINBANDS REACH EASTERN

PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN

ISLANDS.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN

ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

 

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AFFECTING OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE

NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

 

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS

ESTIMATED FROM SAN JUAN RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE

65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN

PUERTO RICO.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13

KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER

PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER

ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS...AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING OVER

PUERTO RICO.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES ... 65 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED

NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER

AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.

 

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

11 AM AST.

 

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

Well, there's one bad..model..

still the same as of 11am

It's a conspiracy.

 

Since we screwed up the Presidential elections last time, Republicans are taking no chances this time by wiping Florida off the face of the planet. Do you really think that the government pays $174.00 for a hammer and $732.00 for a toilet seat? No- funding is going for this secret project.