000

WONT41 KNHC 131300

DSAAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

900 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

 

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE

APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS

MORNING...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS.? THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH

AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE

LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

The manager in the sky has someone else warming in the bullpen.

This thing could be upgraded to a Tropical Depression in the 5PM advisory... Latest Sat Images show that it's starting to rotate plus it has some nice convection around the center...

Would this affect us?

Would this affect us?

555983[/snapback]

Way to early to tell...

In that photo, which one is it?

In that photo, which one is it?

555999[/snapback]

The one east of Puerto Rico...

In that photo, which one is it?

555999[/snapback]

The one east of Puerto Rico...

556004[/snapback]

Thought so: thanks. Wonder if this can upgrade to more than a Tropical Storm.

I think this is just the spinout from Ivan.

 

I could be wrong.

 

But, I have a plan to spare us from getting hit with a hurricane.

 

I bought a certain type of 'hurricane' cookies just before Frances and ate them all before the storm was supposed to hit. It didn't.

 

I bought the exact same kind before Ivan and finished them last night. It didn't hit South Florida.

 

I'm 2 for 2 with a 1,000 average. Any ballplayer would kill for that kind of odds!

 

 

I'll keep buying and eating......

I think we're going to be the only part of FLA not touched this season, luckily! Charley went west coast, Frances east coast (both central FLA), and now Ivan wants north FLA panhandle..we're lucky, now let's hurry and get out of this damn hurricane season.

:plain

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR BARBADOS ALONG 59W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED AND 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15N/16N.

ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT THE

LOW AND SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION

FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 56W-62W INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LEEWARD

ISLANDS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE WILL BRING

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE MUCH OF THE LEEWARD

ISLANDS AND E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW.

 

Edit: as of 2pm

I think we're going to be the only part of FLA not touched this season, luckily! Charley went west coast, Frances east coast (both central FLA), and now Ivan wants north FLA panhandle..we're lucky, now let's hurry and get out of this damn hurricane season.

556073[/snapback]

I can tell you that neither of those two storms made landfall in Central Florida. Charley landed in Lee County's Barrier Islands and then hopped into Charlotte Harbor. Frances made landfall in Palm Beach and Martin Counties.

Oh joy. Not another one. *rolls eyes*

000

WTNT31 KNHC 132041

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

 

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR

PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

 

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

 

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.

 

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE

NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

 

AT 5 PM AST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST

OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH

...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY

HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE

EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER

AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

$$

This thing could be upgraded to a Tropical Depression in the 5PM advisory... Latest Sat Images show that it's starting to rotate plus it has some nice convection around the center...

555978[/snapback]

:thumbup

here we go again

looks like I should start a new section on the Hurricane Warning page soon

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG WITH SATELLITE

IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP

CONVECTION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. THERE IS

PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD

LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GRADUAL

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE

PATH OF THE DEPRESSION COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.

 

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10. A

MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND

HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST

WITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH

ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO

DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK

IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

 

FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

this is BS!!!

:thumbdown :censored :chair :no

ivan's so strong it spawns it's own tropical depressions

 

:plain

000

WTNT31 KNHC 140007

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

 

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.

VIRGIN ISLANDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND

ST. MARTEEN...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

 

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE

NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

 

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL

DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE

60.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH

...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER OR

NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY ON

TUESDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY

HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE

EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER

AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

 

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

11 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

 

$$

Surface observations from the Lesser Antilles along with satellite

images show a broad circulation with sufficiently organized deep

convection to warrant the initiation of advisories. There is

pronounced upper-level divergence over the system...which should

lead to intensification of the tropical cyclone. Gradual

strengthening is forecast...however an upper-level trough in the

path of the depression could inhibit intensification somewhat.

The tropical cyclone is moving at an estimated 290/10. A

mid-tropospheric high pressure system between the depression and

Hurricane Ivan is forecast by most numerical guidance to persist

with an associated NE-SW oriented ridge over the southwest North

Atlantic. This scenario could cause a more westward motion to

develop late in the forecast period. The official forecast track

is similar to the dynamical model consensus.

Bah. Depression. That sucker's weak. Eleven, you don't scare me! The Expos blow harder than you!

 

Depress this, sucka!

Oy Vey is mine Velt!

 

 

Can't the Jews enjoy one New Year without interruption???