Shamrock Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 I could use Monday off. Goddamn test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 I could use Monday off. Goddamn test. 561308[/snapback] Never know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Stationary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Moneyball Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 jeanne as of now is a puny storm probably wouldn't fit over jhialeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 That's what happens when you go over mountains..it's doing very well for what it's going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami 305 Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 every model has it going into the carloinas.....no need to monitor this anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 every model has it going into the carloinas.....no need to monitor this anymore 561710[/snapback] You ever heard of "cone of error" ?? I think your trying to wish it elsewhere so it comes here, we really do need to watch this, because if Ivan doesn't go that way..this storm is ours not Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 new projected path shows it will hit central or north FLA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenix Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 I never let my guard down until a hurricane makes landfall somewhere else. This one looks like it will not head our way, but who knows. Hurricane forecasting isn't an exact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Those are some strange lines...some headed for G-ville, some backwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Those are some strange lines...some headed for G-ville, some backwards? 561939[/snapback] its due to a trough coming down (or maybe a high..im not a forecaster) that will force Jeanne westward and possibly southwestward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Seems Jeanne is sortof falling apart, upto 1002mb as of 2pm...same winds and wnw 8mph though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Seems that image is incorrect and winds are now 50mph instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legacyofCangelosi Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 The computers are in complete disagreement on its forecast track, which is why the 5 day future track is so odd. Seems that there are so many factors affecting its movement that the computers do not agree. One model has it pulling a hurricane betsy (1965) turn, others have it going east. The actual forecast cone is not very accurate and has to be taken lightly, b/c remmeber it is an average of the models and none of the models agree even slightly on its next course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanleylicious Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Models 561863[/snapback] wow, thats insane :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 As long as I can miss my Monday test, its all good. God damn I'm selfish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 That is..assuming it makes it out of the mountains alive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 17, 2004 Share Posted September 17, 2004 Wow..a depression now, and supposely will avoid the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami 305 Posted September 18, 2004 Share Posted September 18, 2004 keeps going more and more away from us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 18, 2004 Share Posted September 18, 2004 Actually, it hasn't begun moving away from us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted September 18, 2004 Share Posted September 18, 2004 Another one misses us after an initial scare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurableTear Posted September 18, 2004 Author Share Posted September 18, 2004 000 WTNT31 KNHC 182032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004 ...JEANNE REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS... MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND VERY NEAR THE CAICOS ISLANDS. JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE. CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurableTear Posted September 18, 2004 Author Share Posted September 18, 2004 HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JEANNE THAT WAS TRACKED SINCE IT MOVED AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA HAS RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS DISSIPATING. SURFACE DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT A NEW CENTER HAS REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND TURK. AN UPPER-LOW WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN...INSTEAD MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE AND AMPLYFIED... DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS RESULTED IN WEAKENING. NOW THIS NEW CENTER LOCATION IS UNDER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. IT IS ONLY BEING SHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO THE REFORMATION. JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE TROUGH AND DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD BE BLOCKED AND MOVE WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEANNE NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. IN FACT...NOW ALL THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD OR LONGER. FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurableTear Posted September 18, 2004 Author Share Posted September 18, 2004 oh crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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