I could use Monday off. Goddamn test.

I could use Monday off. Goddamn test.

561308[/snapback]

Never know..

Stationary...

jeanne as of now is a puny storm probably wouldn't fit over jhialeah.

That's what happens when you go over mountains..it's doing very well for what it's going through.

every model has it going into the carloinas.....no need to monitor this anymore

every model has it going into the carloinas.....no need to monitor this anymore

561710[/snapback]

You ever heard of "cone of error" ?? I think your trying to wish it elsewhere so it comes here, we really do need to watch this, because if Ivan doesn't go that way..this storm is ours not Carolinas.

new projected path shows it will hit central or north FLA

Models

I never let my guard down until a hurricane makes landfall somewhere else.

 

This one looks like it will not head our way, but who knows.

 

Hurricane forecasting isn't an exact science.

Those are some strange lines...some headed for G-ville, some backwards?

Those are some strange lines...some headed for G-ville, some backwards?

561939[/snapback]

its due to a trough coming down (or maybe a high..im not a forecaster) that will force Jeanne westward and possibly southwestward.

Seems Jeanne is sortof falling apart, upto 1002mb as of 2pm...same winds and wnw 8mph though..

Seems that image is incorrect and winds are now 50mph instead

The computers are in complete disagreement on its forecast track, which is why the 5 day future track is so odd. Seems that there are so many factors affecting its movement that the computers do not agree. One model has it pulling a hurricane betsy (1965) turn, others have it going east. The actual forecast cone is not very accurate and has to be taken lightly, b/c remmeber it is an average of the models and none of the models agree even slightly on its next course

Models

 

 

561863[/snapback]

 

wow, thats insane

 

:o

As long as I can miss my Monday test, its all good. God damn I'm selfish.

That is..assuming it makes it out of the mountains alive..

Wow..a depression now, and supposely will avoid the US?

keeps going more and more away from us

Actually, it hasn't begun moving away from us yet.

Another one misses us after an initial scare.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 182032

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

 

...JEANNE REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN

BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...

MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND

SAN SALVADOR.

 

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

JEANNE.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT

45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND VERY

NEAR THE CAICOS ISLANDS.

 

JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH

...11 KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES

...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS

POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

 

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.

CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE

CENTER.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM

EDT.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

$$

HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF

JEANNE THAT WAS TRACKED SINCE IT MOVED AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA HAS RUN

WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS DISSIPATING. SURFACE DATA

FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT A

NEW CENTER HAS REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST

OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES A

NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND

TURK. AN UPPER-LOW WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING TO MOVE

SOUTH AND WEAKEN...INSTEAD MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE AND AMPLYFIED...

DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS RESULTED IN WEAKENING. NOW THIS

NEW CENTER LOCATION IS UNDER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL

ANTICYLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AS

INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS

AND THE GFDL MODELS.

 

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. IT IS ONLY BEING

SHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO THE REFORMATION. JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3

DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE

TROUGH AND DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD

BE BLOCKED AND MOVE WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING

THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND

3 DAYS...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEANNE NEARLY

STATIONARY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS THREE THROUGH

FIVE. IN FACT...NOW ALL THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS...THE

UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION

THROUGH THE PERIOD OR LONGER.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

oh crap...