Foladar Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Track in my sig seems to have shifted more our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 I've also been hearing Ivan may stall once inland, which would pull our friend Jeanne more towards S. FLA or even Central FLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marlins2k3Champs Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Wow this one looks like it is heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Wow this one looks like it is heading our way. 559404[/snapback] It's possible..but it is also possible for it to curve to the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Here's our lovely Jeanne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 2PM out..(i'll adjust to NHC maps so I can use same ones as TM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marlins Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 I think it has a good chance of hitting us...Maybe I can miss more school...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 I think it has a good chance of hitting us...Maybe I can miss more school...lol. 559663[/snapback] Doesnt look that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Gonna be a cat 2 hurricane supposely close to us. If it doesn't curve, it's gonna come straight at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapeFish Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Really big differences between AccuWeather's track and the NHC track. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 11AM is out.. Jeanne has slowed big time, which is bad..gives the weakness Ivan forces in which would have took Jeanne to the Carolinas a possible time to rebuild..but I don't know what I'm talking about..just repeating what I've heard The weakness down to a TS again comes from land/mountains, and then comes back to a cat 2. 5day is here: http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200411_5day.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurableTear Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161440 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS JEANNE SCRAPES THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA TO ISLA SAONA. AT 11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO WEST OF PUERTO PLATA...AND FROM ISLA SAONA TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. JEANNE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT SHOULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 68.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurableTear Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT JEANNE REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88 KT...AND MULTIPLE DROPSONDE SURFACE ESTIMATES BETWEEN 63 AND 69 KT SUPPORT THE 70 KT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING 275/6. JEANNE IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THIS INTERVAL. AFTER THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN...WHICH COULD BE ANWHERE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CAPE HATTERAS IN THREE DAYS. THE MORE EASTERN SOLUTIONS RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF JEANNE THROUGH 5 DAYS...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET. MORE WESTWARD TRACKS...TOWARD FLORIDA...ARE INDICATED BY THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY CHOOSE BETWEEN THE SCENARIOS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IT IS QUITE CURIOUS THAT THE SUPERENSEMBLE 5-DAY POINT LIES TO THE LEFT OF ALL OF ITS COMPONENTS...BUT THIS CAN HAPPEN GIVEN THE WAY THAT BIAS-CORRECTING MODEL IS CONSTRUCTED. JEANNE SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER HISPANIOLA...BUT EVENTUALLY SHOULD COME UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THIS...AND THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. " Hmm, the GFDL is pointing our way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 2pm shows it clinging, but still westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurableTear Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161743 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST THU SEP 16 2004 ...HURRICANE JEANNE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA TO ISLA SAONA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO WEST OF PUERTO PLATA...AND FROM ISLA SAONA TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. THESE WATCHES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR INLAND ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. JEANNE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AS A RESULT OF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT SHOULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marlins Phenom Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Come towards us! I dont want to go to school.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...JEANNE IS THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM. ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS JEANNE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH GOOD HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING AT H8 AND H7. THIS KEEPS JEANNE ON A MORE WESTWARD PATH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IVAN MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND DRAWS JEANNE ON A MORE NORTHWARD PATH. AT PRESENT THE STORM IS SMALL AND IT SHOULD HAVE SOME TROUBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...BUT WE MAY HAVE SOME KIND OF WATCH WITH WHICH TO DEAL AT SOME POINT POSSIBLY SUNDAY. IF JEANNE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE WITH HISPANIOLA...THAT WOULD BE A TESTAMENT TO THE POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SCENARIO KEEPS JEANNE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTH FLORIDA IN A NORTHEAST FLOW BACKING TO NORTHWEST AS JEANNE MOVES EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE METRO EAST COAST WOULD BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM ASSUMING THIS FORECAST TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 2pm Model = BAMM (yellow line) .. some others will be ran at 8pm Looks to be trending our way again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Jeanne has a twin? :| http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html The thing to the east of Jeanne, with the extreme reds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 No school Monday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 For Gainesville? Depends on Ivan, this one shouldn't effect school there monday, though. Again, this is just my opinion..but I think S. Fla may not have school Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foladar Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Trop. Storm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurableTear Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7 AS JEANNE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DESPITE ITS TREK OVER LAND...IT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN NWS RADAR WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED HOWEVER...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RIGHT-LEANING GFS AND LEFT-LEANING GFDL MODELS. THIS AFTERNOON...THE GFS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTED EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWING THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TO DEFLECT JEANNE'S TRACK TO THE RIGHT IN 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS ARE EXPECTE TO PREVENT JEANNE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. WITH THE FIVE DAY FORECAST POINT NEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE...THIS MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE FIVE DAY NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 375 MILES...IN OTHER WORDS...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO BE SURE WHAT PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY JEANNE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AROUND JEAN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY DIVERGENT FLOW THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AFTER JEANNE CLEARS HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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