000

WTNT31 KNHC 182340

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

 

...POORLY-ORGANIZED JEANNE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN

BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...

MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND

SAN SALVADOR.

 

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

JEANNE.

 

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR BETWEEN

MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE CAICOS

ISLANDS.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 MPH...10

KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER INDICATE THAT JEANNE IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES

...140 KM TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

 

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER

IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS

POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

 

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.

CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE

CENTER.

 

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

 

$$

000

WTNT31 KNHC 190236

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 22

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

 

...JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN

BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...

MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND

SAN SALVADOR.

 

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

JEANNE.

 

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT

25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF THE EASTERN END OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN

THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9

KM/HR. WHILE SOME JUMPING AROUND OF THE CENTER IS POSSIBLE AS

JEANNE RE-ORGANIZES...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT

THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS

POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS.

 

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.

CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE

CENTER.

 

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.4 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

 

$$

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE IS POORLY ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY

DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY JUST SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM

THE NEW CENTER THAT FORMED THIS AFTERNOON TO THE OLD CENTER...WHICH

HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND

HAITI. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WELL-REMOVED TO THE

EAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002

MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF

THE NEW CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 40

KT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 360/5. IF JEANNE IS NOT

ACTUALLY YET MOVING NORTH...IT WILL BE SOON AS SATELLITE...

RAWINSONDE...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK BUT DEEP-LAYER

TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS

OF IVAN. THIS HAS ERODED THE RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF JEANNE

AND SHOULD ALLOW A NORTHWARD MOTION. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST

THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN POSSIBLY BECOME A

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK

FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND ALONG THE

LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND

NORTHWEST OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING

THROUGH THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES. THIS SHOULD BLOCK THE

NORTHWARD MOTION AND COULD TURN JEANNE BACK WESTWARD BY 120 HR.

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LOOPS OF VARIOUS SIZES AND SPEEDS...

WITH 120 HR POSITIONS BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR

72-120 HR WILL NOT CALL FOR A COMPLETE LOOP...BUT WILL SHOW A

HALF-LOOP THAT IS SMALLER AND SLOWER THAN THAT OF THE GUIDANCE.

OBVIOUSLY...THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS HAVE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL

LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY. IN THE SHORT

TERM...THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR

THE CENTER WILL AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 24 HR...BUT

BY THAT TIME JEANNE MAY BE PASSING OVER THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

WAKE OF FRANCES...WHERE SST ANALYSES INDICATE TEMPERATURES BELOW

28C IN SOME AREAS. THIS MAY COUNTER THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48-72 HR...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND

JEANNE MAY INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD LIMIT

STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH TAKE JEANNE TO 65-70

KT MAXIMUM WINDS IN 48-72 HR FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN

STRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

Damn it looks like it can make a loop and come towards Florida....is this whats gonna happen ????

Damn it looks like it can make a loop and come towards Florida....is this whats gonna happen ????

564175[/snapback]

It can't..you've already decided where it will go..

 

its not gonna hit Miami...everyone take the shutters down

558830[/snapback]

000

WTNT31 KNHC 190839

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

 

...JEANNE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

 

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS PLANS TO DISCONTINUE ALL WATCHES AND

WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS EFFECTIVE AT 6 AM EDT...1000Z.

 

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT

140 MILES... 220 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH

...11 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES

...140 KM...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

11 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

 

$$

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING JEANNE

AND THEY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...1500 FT...OF 53 KT ABOUT 50 N MI

NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A STANDARD REDUCTION FOR THIS

ALTITUDE GIVES A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KT. THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCE

OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE ESTABLISHING A

BETTER-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THEREFORE SOME

STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS JEANNE EVENTUALLY RESTRENGTHENING INTO A

HURRICANE... AS DO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS

200 MB WIND FOREAST SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...IMPLYING

SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...OVER THE AREA WHERE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS

FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN 72 HOURS. JEANNE MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A

RATHER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WAY TO REGAINING

HURRICANE STATUS.

 

BASED ON THE RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. A

MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSUAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE

EASTWARD AND TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 2-3 DAYS...THIS TROUGH IS

LIKELY TO BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG

DEEP-LAYER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A RIDGE

EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH IS PREDICTED...BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...

TO BLOCK THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF JEANNE...AND CAUSE THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CLOCKWISE LOOP. THIS OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE WIDER LOOP THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT

HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THIS IS A

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

 

SINCE JEANNE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HAS

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST

QUADRANTS...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS INTENDS TO DISCONTINUE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

Damn it looks like it can make a loop and come towards Florida....is this whats gonna happen ????

564175[/snapback]

It can't..you've already decided where it will go..

 

its not gonna hit Miami...everyone take the shutters down

558830[/snapback]

564210[/snapback]

Well he said Florida. It could make a loop an go to Jacksonville, is what he's saying.

5-day track shows it going out to water...

000

WTNT31 KNHC 192044

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT

145 MILES... 230 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE

BAHAMAS.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES

...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.5 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

 

$$

A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE

RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL

PRESSURE. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH GOOD

OUTFLOW AND BANDING. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING JEANNE TO A

HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...

ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO

SHOWS SOME RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING JEANNE IN 36

HOURS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS

INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A HUGE LOW

MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AFTER THAT...JEANNE

GETS FAIRLY CLOSE TO KARL AND THEY COULD INTERACT. IN ANY CASE...A

VERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS

SHOWING A SLOW GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

000

WTNT31 KNHC 201440

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 28

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

 

...JEANNE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...

...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...

 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT

345 MILES... 560 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

 

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR

...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AND JEANNE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES

...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 5 PM EDT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

$$

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED TIGHT

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE INNER-CORE REGION

OF JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE

INTERIOR PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 2

HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER AND HAS PULLED IT MORE NORTHWARD. SO THE FORWARD MOTION IS A

BLEND OF ALL THOSE WOBBLES. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE STEERING FLOW

IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NHC MODELS TO REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT FOR

THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH

THAT IS FORECAST TO PICK UP HURRICANE IVAN RUNS OFF AND LEAVES

JEANNE BEHIND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE

NORTH OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS

EXPECTED TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION BY JEANNE

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFS AND

BAM MODELS...WHICH TAKE JEANNE DUE EAST...AND THE NAVY COAMPS MODEL

...WHICH MOVES JEANNE DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST

AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT TO PUT A SMALL

ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS

CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

 

JEANNE HAS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN

HURRICANE STATUS AS EARLY AS TODAY IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE DRY AIR

THAT HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT

IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36

HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES

SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

Looks like Jeanne will be a problem for north Florida.

We don't want it.

Over 800 dead now, 1000 missing in Haiti.

I just saw a story on Haiti that said "even more without water", yet the ground was covered in water. :o

I just saw a story on Haiti that said "even more without water", yet the ground was covered in water. :o

569003[/snapback]

storm water is contaminated and anything that it touches becomes contaminated.

cape, any idea on what city the eye is scheduled to pass through?

cape, any idea on what city the eye is scheduled to pass through?

569125[/snapback]

from florida city all the way up to cape hatteras. no one knows or it would have been said already. just keep an eye on it and hope it stays away.

Cape why do the tracks in your sig and website conflict to such an extreme?

Perhaps he doesn't update his sig with each advisory.

 

:confused

Perhaps he doesn't update his sig with each advisory.

 

:confused

569387[/snapback]

I wasnt meaning that as a swipe dood. Looks like Jeanne is forecasted to come more west before it turns north. Anyone have a prediction on strength that it gains?

:thumbdown

Perhaps he doesn't update his sig with each advisory.

 

:confused

569387[/snapback]

Anyone have a prediction on strength that it gains?

569422[/snapback]

 

Looks like it'll be a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3...