PAYROLL SHOULD HOLD

 

While the Marlins say they have not set their payroll for next season, it's difficult to envision it being much higher than this year's $52.3 million (which includes $11 million in deferred payments to Mike Hampton and Ivan Rodriguez). And it might not even be that high if Loria decides to cut losses.

 

In addition to a combined $12 million due Hampton and Rodriguez in 2005, the Marlins enter this offseason with far more salary commitments than they had last winter. Lowell, Luis Castillo, Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Conine, Juan Encarnacion and Juan Pierre will combine to earn $26.25 million next season.

 

Using this year's $52.3 million payroll figure, that would leave the Marlins with about $14 million to pay 19 players, barring trades. Free agents Pavano and Benitez could come close to commanding that much on their own. And several arbitration-eligible players could get big payouts, such as Paul Lo Duca (who could warrant close to $7 million) and A.J. Burnett (who could top $4 million).

 

Lowell, due to make $7.5 million next season, will strongly consider opting out if the stadium deadline isn't met. The third baseman said he will meet with team executives later this month to determine whether they plan to field a serious playoff contender next season. If he's not satisfied with what he hears, he'll likely opt for free agency.

 

''You've got to tweak every team,'' Lowell said. ``. . . But I don't think you can get rid of five established players and replace them with five inexperienced players. . . . If you're going to get a stadium, you can't go in the tank for two years.''

 

Among the six players under contract for next season, Encarnacion likely would be viewed as the least significant loss. But he's coming off a subpar year, and his $4.45 million salary would be difficult to move in a trade.

 

If Lowell opts out, Miguel Cabrera likely would shift to third, and that would give the Marlins more money to sign Pavano, plus a cheap outfielder to replace Cabrera.

 

If Lowell stays, the Marlins might be able to keep Pavano or Lo Duca, but they'll be hard-pressed to keep both. Re-signing Benitez appears to be a stretch, even though set-up man Guillermo Mota struggled in September.

 

Even if Pavano and Lowell stay, the Marlins likely will try to sign at least one starting pitcher and a left-handed bat, plus another reliever if, as expected, Benitez departs.

That article is right on the money.

Moving Encarnacion is the first priority.

Then try to resign Pavano and wait and see with Lowell and Loduca.

I sweat to God, if they jack season ticket holders like they plan AND don't raise pay-roll :banghead .

 

Just inexcusable. We're at such an important time in our fan-base rebuilding process. We're going to make one huge mistake: raising ticket prices after not making the playoffs (I know, they didn't raise them this year for season ticket holders), but that is justified if it helps the team get better. Look, I have no problem paying a lot more per seat, but that's only if we improve on the field.

 

I'm sick of hearing that our improvements will be a more mature Cabrera, Beckett and Burnett. We took a big step when we last made a big-splash on the FA market (Pudge), we need to do something like that again.

Terrible news. You can't make money if you dont spend money. If we really wanted to be like the '02-'04 Angels, we'd need to keep our team intact and add a big bat. Sad to say it, but it looks like back to mediocrity in '05

I sweat to God, if they jack season ticket holders like they plan AND don't raise pay-roll :banghead .

 

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Thats what will happen. Loria isn't going to lose more money than this year when there are days you only get 12k a game.

 

The only way they'll spend money is if they can make another Pudge like signing, which would be getting a superstar like Sammy or Pedro.

 

Until we start playing in our own stadium and revenues stop getting sent to Wayne H, payroll won't jump.

Totally disagree. If you want to make money, you need to be looking at the long-term. If you continue to build a team and play competitively, you're going to have a larger and more interested fan-base. This is a form of collateral and it will be needed for financing purposes as well as to support your request for tax incentives from the government. If you don't build a team now and fan support actually decreases, the likelihood of financing a stadium is also going to decrease. The lessons of '98 are very real-- less fans = less $$. Less $$ = greater financing and greater monetary interest.

 

If the team is not going to spend, i.e., field a competitive team, then I wonder whether it's a ploy to justify selling or to threaten to move. Such a ploy, I fear, will backfire.

 

Let's hope they do the smart thing and show they're committed to this team and to getting a new stadium by doing what needs to be done to remain competitive-- even if it means increasing the payroll by $5-7 million.

I think that we should grap Palmiero/Sosa, because we have the talent to go all the way, so we dont need anyone for long-term yet, just someone who can give us a very productive season and maybe lead us into the playoffs again..But, if Palmeiro/Sosa arn't available or too expensive, thats when we go back to long term players..

Totally disagree. If you want to make money, you need to be looking at the long-term. If you continue to build a team and play competitively, you're going to have a larger and more interested fan-base. This is a form of collateral and it will be needed for financing purposes as well as to support your request for tax incentives from the government. If you don't build a team now and fan support actually decreases, the likelihood of financing a stadium is also going to decrease. The lessons of '98 are very real-- less fans = less $$. Less $$ = greater financing and greater monetary interest.

 

If the team is not going to spend, i.e., field a competitive team, then I wonder whether it's a ploy to justify selling or to threaten to move. Such a ploy, I fear, will backfire.

 

Let's hope they do the smart thing and show they're committed to this team and to getting a new stadium by doing what needs to be done to remain competitive-- even if it means increasing the payroll by $5-7 million.

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You do realize that is what he is doing? Its not like Loria is making a cent off the Marlins. But there is a limit to how much you can afford to lose.

 

The team can go out there and get Pedro, Sammy, Drew and Finley and people will pack the stadium on weekends. But during weekdays there will still be around 20k and Wayne H will still get a bunch of the money people spend on sodas, hotdogs and parking.

 

So even though we have a great team, improved attendance and a stadium deal, he'd be some $10 million in the red for the next 3 years. It will take him a long damn time to break even considering what he could be making putting that money into bonds or real estate.

 

While we are giving Wayne H the deal of his life, keeping payroll about the same is almost best case scenario. :confused

Totally disagree.? If you want to make money, you need to be looking at the long-term.? If you continue to build a team and play competitively, you're going to have a larger and more interested fan-base.? This is a form of collateral and it will be needed for financing purposes as well as to support your request for tax incentives from the government.? If you don't build a team now and fan support actually decreases, the likelihood of financing a stadium is also going to decrease.? ? The lessons of '98 are very real-- less fans = less $$.? Less $$ = greater financing and greater monetary interest.?

 

If the team is not going to spend, i.e., field a competitive team, then I wonder whether it's a ploy to justify selling or to threaten to move.? Such a ploy, I fear, will backfire.

 

Let's hope they do the smart thing and show they're committed to this team and to getting a new stadium by doing what needs to be done to remain competitive-- even if it means increasing the payroll by $5-7 million.

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You do realize that is what he is doing? Its not like Loria is making a cent off the Marlins. But there is a limit to how much you can afford to lose.

 

The team can go out there and get Pedro, Sammy, Drew and Finley and people will pack the stadium on weekends. But during weekdays there will still be around 20k and Wayne H will still get a bunch of the money people spend on sodas, hotdogs and parking.

 

So even though we have a great team, improved attendance and a stadium deal, he'd be some $10 million in the red for the next 3 years. It will take him a long damn time to break even considering what he could be making putting that money into bonds or real estate.

 

While we are giving Wayne H the deal of his life, keeping payroll about the same is almost best case scenario. :confused

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OK, I have a hard time believing that Loria is losing as much as he claims because he willingly took on this team, with the lease as is; it's not like this was a new revelation when he bought the team. Not to mention, when he left the Expos, the Expos were just as talented as our team, if not more so (Guerrero, Vazquez, Vidro, Cabrera). This is pointless, but I have a real hard time believing any major league owner when they say that they're losing money in excess of 8 figures, but that's not what this is about.

 

I agree 100% that this team must spend money to make money because apathetic response from ownership gets apathetic response from a notably bad fan-base. South Florida fans are extremely fickle and there is even more of a "what have you done for me lately" mentality here than in New York...at least Mets, Giants and Rangers fans support their team and show up even when they suck and crumble under New York expectations.

 

We were a mediocre team this year, we'll be a below average team next year if pay-roll doesn't increase, and we'll be lucky to get 12k at the gate. This is a huge year for our franchise. This is probably the deepest FA market in recent memory, and any number of available players could put us over the hump, re-energize the fan-base, and propel our season ticket numbers up as well. If we don't, I really have no faith in this ownership, or in our ability to survive in this market.

You're probably going to be upset next year and the year after that. The Marlins will probably be raising ticket prices (now the second lowest in the majors, behind the defunct Montreal Expos) every year until the new stadium is built.

OK, I have a hard time believing that Loria is losing as much as he claims because he willingly took on this team, with the lease as is; it's not like this was a new revelation when he bought the team. Not to mention, when he left the Expos, the Expos were just as talented as our team, if not more so (Guerrero, Vazquez, Vidro, Cabrera). This is pointless, but I have a real hard time believing any major league owner when they say that they're losing money in excess of 8 figures, but that's not what this is about.

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Loria wants to own a baseball team, and believe it or not, but South Florida offered a better opportunity for a new stadium and suitable local revenues than Montreal.

As part of the franchise trade Loria will receive ~$30M should he fail at his attempts to build a new stadium.

OK, I have a hard time believing that Loria is losing as much as he claims because he willingly took on this team, with the lease as is; it's not like this was a new revelation when he bought the team.? Not to mention, when he left the Expos, the Expos were just as talented as our team, if not more so (Guerrero, Vazquez, Vidro, Cabrera).? This is pointless, but I have a real hard time believing any major league owner when they say that they're losing money in excess of 8 figures, but that's not what this is about.

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Loria wants to own a baseball team, and believe it or not, but South Florida offered a better opportunity for a new stadium and suitable local revenues than Montreal.

As part of the franchise trade Loria will receive ~$30M should he fail at his attempts to build a new stadium.

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He has to make a "good faith" attempt to get that money, and I really believe Selig will force Loria to sell the team before he allows him to move them at this point.

 

I have no problem with ticket prices going up, but why raise prices when you already can't get people out when you're practically giving seats away as it is? I would have gladly paid much more this season if it meant getting Guerrero or keeping Pudge or finding a way to trade for ARod (which according to all the NY papers we were very close to doing), but I will not simply accept an increased price for constant or decreased quality. The Yankees didn't raise ticket prices after adding the highest paid pitcher (Brown) and position player (ARod) in the same offseason. Hell, to my recollection, the Angels actually lowered ticket prices this past offseason.

The Marlins will never move. Despite Huizenga, local politicians and the fickle fan base MLB wants a team in South Florida. And I don't think Loria wants to move them. Even with the Expos, former owner Claude Brochu had twice tried to move the team to DC before bringing in Loria.

 

TSwift, you keep prices low and people will always expect cheap tickets. Consider this increase a warning to all fans that the Marlins will one day not have the second lowest average ticket price in the majors. And I don't know about you, but for PR reasons I'd much rather have small increases each year than a $10 hike later.

The Marlins will never move. Despite Huizenga, local politicians and the fickle fan base MLB wants a team in South Florida. And I don't think Loria wants to move them. Even with the Expos, former owner Claude Brochu had twice tried to move the team to DC before bringing in Loria.

 

TSwift, you keep prices low and people will always expect cheap tickets. Consider this increase a warning to all fans that the Marlins will one day not have the second lowest average ticket price in the majors. And I don't know about you, but for PR reasons I'd much rather have small increases each year than a $10 hike later.

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In sports, which is a completely different animal than any other business, you raise prices when you're doing well, you cut them or keep them constant when you're not.

 

I have no problem with an increase in price IF there is a justification. If the only reason Loria's jacking season ticket holders is because he's "losing money," well that's just silly.

 

What needs to be done, and what would be met with no opposition at all, would be a signing or trade that gets everyone excited. If we added Pedro or Sosa or Beltran or Magglio or Delgado or Drew, I'd have no problem with tickets going up because you could see the reasoning.

 

If we return basically this same team minus Pavano Lo Duca and Benitez, and raise prices, I'm PO'd beyond reason.

Want a justification? They won a World Series and increased payroll last year and kept 90% of the tickets the same price.

 

Would you (not you specifically) have been complaining if they made this increase last year? Probably along with moaning over the loss of Lee, Pudge and others.

 

Attendance means nothing to the Marlins. Thanks to the lease deal, it's the difference between losing $15 million and $20 million. Big deal. The only thing attendance does is shows local politicians that people care about the team. And if the stadium deal isn't done by Opening Day I'm doubtful it will ever happen. (Again, not that the Marlins would leave, but I could see another owner leaving.)

Want a justification? They won a World Series and increased payroll last year and kept 90% of the tickets the same price.

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Um.....are you sure?

 

We have a great GM. The rest of the front office, I'm not so sure.

Unless the Yankees won last fall or some players played for free, yeah, I'm pretty sure.

 

Sheesh, you people are lucky. Do you know how much these tickets would be in NYC, DC, Boston, LA, Atlanta?

 

Would you rather have Wayne Huizenga, John Henry or one of the many Carl Pohlads out there running the team? Atleast Loria risks some losses. Most prospective owners would have cut all expenses to break even by now.

I have no problem with them moderately raising ticket prices; the games are a bargain to begin with and I am a partial season ticket holder.

 

The problem however is that, when you raise prices, you better field a competitive team-- not one that is mediocre. The reality of the economics is that if you raise prices and you sell less seats, Loria will be screaming that he is losing more money. I find this all to be a ploy-- maybe Loria's really hoping Selig will force him to sell the team.

Meh, I don't think it's a question of losing more money. I'm not quite sure they are losing much if they are losing at all.

0% luxury suites, 70% of concessions, 36% of parking, scant advertising revenue, below average media contracts.

 

For other clubs in the league, more than 60% of their revenue comes from the above sources. Add in rent and paying ushers, etc... and you don't think the Marlins are losing tens of millions each year?

 

Read up:

http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/economics/faculty/jp...82/marlins.html

http://www.roadsidephotos.com/baseball/bbblog.htm

I don't see how the Marlins can NOT lose money right now. Is the timing of the ticket prices right? Probably not. Well, unless Sosa or somebody is in the bag and they are just keeping quiet. :mischief2

 

But it is about money. the team next year should be similar to this years with changes here and there. Its not like we're the Dolphins without Ricky Williams. With pitching and without hurricanes we might be playing in October in 2005.

0% luxury suites, 70% of concessions, 36% of parking, scant advertising revenue, below average media contracts.

 

For other clubs in the league, more than 60% of their revenue comes from the above sources. Add in rent and paying ushers, etc... and you don't think the Marlins are losing tens of millions each year?

 

Read up:

http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/economics/faculty/jp...82/marlins.html

http://www.roadsidephotos.com/baseball/bbblog.htm

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I doubt the greatness of the numbers.

 

Don't forget, we've had owners say they are losing plenty of money but put money elsewhere, like suddenly creating 700 million to buy another team. Loria also doesn't have the greatest history.

This offeseason is going to suck.

This offeseason is going to suck.

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Not if we get the stadium going.

good way to get Lowell to stay would be to wrap up Lo Duca to a multiyear deal BEFORE the stadium deadline hits. would send a great message to Mikey that they'll make an effort to keep a strong team.