The debate has intensified over how much longer the American people will tolerate our mounting casualties amid the increased violence in Iraq. I wanted to see how long the members of this board think that we will stay in Iraq. Right now, some people are thinking that we will look for an exit strategy after the Iraqi elections in the end of January. Another current prediction is that the Shiites will win the election in January due to their majority of the population.

No idea. I'd say 4-6 months but the word from the troops is that it will take a lot more time to make sure the job is done over there.

I think we will have a presence there for years to come. The majority of troops should hopefully be back within a year.

 

At this point pulling out too soon is a problem.

We'll have a presence there for at least 10 years. I think we'll have troops on the ground until January 2006.

Not short enough.

well my friend is in the marines and before he left he said 7 months he will be there... and its been 2 already... not sure if that means anything..

 

 

although i talk to him online once in a while and i ask him when he thinks he will come back and hes like "its gonna be a while"

MY guess is that the first troops will start pulling out around July. It'll probably late 2005/ early 2006 before there isn't a large scale troop presence in Iraq.

Not short enough.

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whether liberal or conservative, pro-Iraqi attack or not....intelligence must prove superior here. We NEED to stay and clean things up. Things are going to get dicy. But, we need to establish democracy, or everything is for nothing. We can't leave now, or we've put things at a worse state in the international world than before.

 

Now, democracy will be tough. The Iraqis have hated Western interference even before Iraq was a country (Paris Peace Conference of 1919). In fact, the hatred for Western involvement is what originally united the Shia, Sunnis, and Kurds (for their hatred of the puppet thrown and British involvement).

 

Corruption will most definitely run wild as well. Much will need to be done to keep corruption out of the government.

 

Finally, something must be done with the oil. If you look around the world at the top oil producers...their economies suck. Why? Because they choose to base their economy solely on oil. Iraq, if they are to become a strong democracy with a strong economy will need to keep oil from becoming the centerfold of their economy. Whether they go the technological route, cash crop route, whatever...oil can NOT be their economy alone.

 

Some people think that democracy cannot be established in Iraq. The Sunnis and the Shia (Shi'ites) and the Kurds are always fighting. Iraq's country is filled with anti-democracy (even though Iraq hasnt even been a country for that long, so I don't see the validity in that argument). Well, I think that all the differences in the Iraqi population is exactly what can bring this nation into a democracy. A heterogeneous community might be exactly the solution.

 

 

Just some thoughts from me.

5 more years, minimum.