thanks to John Sickels, rferry, farmer fran and nc marlin for all their input...

 

 

 

MB.com:After struggling as a starter in the past, Randy Messenger was moved to the pen last year was pretty darn good. How does he project?, What's his ceiling?, could he contribute this year?

 

John Sickels:He looks like a nice middle reliever to me, and yes he could contribute this year. He improved his slider last year, which shows up in stronger K/IP ratios. He still needs to sharpen his control before being ready.

 

MB.com:Scott Olsen...What does he need to improve upon before hitting the big leagues? When will he be ready?

 

JS:Olsen just needs innings. He's only 21, with no innings above Class A. He could improve his command a bit more, but he's right where he should be on the development curve. If he does well in Double-A he'll be ready for a cup of coffee late this year. My own belief is that pitchers should have full Double-A and Triple-A seasons under their belt before being pushed into a starting rotation, but few teams are able to keep to that timetable.

 

MB.com:Ryan Blake is a guy who has hit very well in his first two years in the minors. Granted, he has been old for those levels but his numbers are impressive nonetheless. Do you think he can continue to produce as he climbs the organizational ladder and is there anything other than his age that hurts his status as a prospect?

 

JS:Well, you put your finger on it right there. He has a career .285/.381/.523 line, but it is all in low-level Class A, and he's already 25 years old. His strikeout rate is rather high, so there are serious concerns about his ability to hit advanced pitching. We need to see if he can handle Double-A pitching. His defense is also a limiting factor for his prospect status.

 

MB.com:What kind of potential do you think Chris Resop has as a reliever? In his first full season as a pitcher he dominated low Single-A. He can really light up the radar gun, but does he have what it takes to become a solid major league reliever down the road?

 

JS:Well, it's early to say since as you point out he was just in A-ball. But the numbers are excellent and the scouting reports are strong. If he continues to pitch like that in Double-A, he will be a useful middle reliever at the least, maybe even a closer. He certainly has what it takes physically.

 

MB.com:Do you believe Eric Reed is the future replacement for Juan Pierre? He's a terrific defensive player, with blazing speed, but his lack of plate discipline leads me to believe that he will not be a good leadoff hitter in the majors.

 

JS:I agree, Reed will have to show he can get on base at a decent clip for his speed to matter. If he keeps hitting .300+ he'll be fine, but if his batting average drops below, say, .280, then the on-base problem becomes acute unless he draws more walks.

 

MB.com:How close are Taylor Tankersley and Jason Vargas to the majors? Both of these guys looked very good last summer in their professional debuts, especially Vargas. Which one do you think will make it to the majors first, and do you think they could make it to AA before the end of this upcoming season?

 

JS:I think we can see both of them in Double-A this year. They are pretty advanced guys. If they stay healthy and don't start having command problems or something, both could be up late in 2006.

 

MB.com:Even though they are young, so far not so good for Jamar Walton and Jai Miller. What are your thoughts on the J boys?

 

JS:Good physical tools, no baseball skills.

 

MB.com:Josh Willingham is probably not in the Marlins future, considering he is blocked at every position he can play (catcher, 1b, 3b, lf, and with Hermida in rf). One would have to believe his only chance at being an everyday player is if Hermida doesn't quite make the jump this year, allowing Josh to take RF/LF next year. What kind of numbers do you see Willy? put up in 2005 with 375 at bats+?

 

JS:I think Willingham could hit .240-.250, but that's OK if he provides the kind of walks and power he showed at lower levels. If you gave him 375 at-bats, I'd estimate something like a .242, 15 homer performance, with 50 walks or so, solid OBP.

 

MB.com:Yorman Bazardo gets a lot of hype even though his numbers aren't all that good. His ERA has gone up at each level and he does not strikeout alot of batters, although he doesn't walk many either. What do you like about him and what number starter do you project him in the future?

 

JS:I'm suspicious of guys who have good fastballs but don't strike people out. They often fail to develop as teams expect. He does keep the ball down, which helps. But a guy who can burn radar needs to put up much better K/IP and H/IP marks than Bazardo does for success to be ensured. If that remains a problem, he might have a better chance in relief.

 

MB.com:Another player blocked now is Jason Stokes. If he can stay healthy this year, he could be great trade bait around the trading deadline this year, especially if he shows that "light tower"? power to us.

 

JS:Stokes still has that good power, but he is not growing or improving as a hitter. He risks getting stuck as a Triple-A slugger unless he makes substantial progress this year and next year.

Good job guys...quality interview

Good job Ramp, that's nice of him to let you interview him for the site. Good questions all around, very interesting. He seems to really like Resop.

Very informative. Kudos once again, Mr. Awesome.

Nice interview.

 

Who is John Sickels?

Who is John Sickels?

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If you are seriously asking that, you don't know a damned thing about baseball.

Who is John Sickels?

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If you are seriously asking that, you don't know a damned thing about baseball.

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:confused

Who is John Sickels?

711100[/snapback]

 

If you are seriously asking that, you don't know a damned thing about baseball.

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:confused

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John Sickles : Minor League :: Mel Kiper : NFL Draft

Great interview guys

Good reading. Questions well-posed.

Must admit I was a bit bummed out with the Willingham assessment.

Do hope those among us capable will continue these Interviews.

He released his overview of our prospects today as well:

 

The last system report. We will summarize the data tomorrow. Anyone willing to figure up the GPAs, please do so and post in the comments. I'll then take that and make some adjustments and come up with some final farm system rankings.

 

1. Jeremy Hermida, OF, B+

2. Scott Olsen, LHP, B+

3. Taylor Tankersley, LHP, B

4. Jason Vargas, LHP, B

5. Chris Resop, RHP, B

6. Logan Kensing, RHP, B-

7. Josh Willingham, C-1B, C+

8. Jason Stokes, 1B, C+

9. Yorman Bazardo, RHP, C+

10. Eric Reed, OF, C+

11. Josh Johnson, RHP, C+

12. Brad Davis, C, C+

13. Adam Bostick, LHP, C+

14. Randy Messinger, RHP, C

15. Trevor Hutchinson, RHP, C

16. Chris Aguila, OF, C

17. Ron Belisario, RHP, C

18. Luke Hagerty, LHP, C

19. Robert Andino, SS, C

20. Josh Wilson, SS, C

 

An average system overall at this point. Hermida took a major step forward last year, and further advancement would make him a Grade A- type guy. He has both tools and skills. The question will be how much his power develops, and a lot of scouts are very optimistic on that count. Scott Olsen doesn't get a lot of attention, but is one of the best LHP prospects around. He's always had good command, and as his velocity has picked up into the 90-95 range, his K/IP continues to rise without deterioration in his other ratios. Tankersley and Vargas, 2004 draftees, are both polished college pitchers who can advance quickly, giving the Marlins three impressive southpaws at the top of the system. Grade B ratings for Tank and Vargas are conservative.

 

Chris Resop is a converted outfielder who owns a mid-90s fastball and a 68/7 K/BB in 42 relief innings last year. He needs more experience, but continued pitching like that would raise his grade. Fellow RHP Kensing was badly rushed last year, jumping from Class A to the Show, where he had no business. He has a good arm but is raw, and pushing him into the Majors so quickly was a big backfire risk.

 

Josh Willingham is a favorite of statheads due to his power and excellent walk rate. Tradionalists are less sold on him due to defensive questions. I like his bat, but at age 26 and with no track record above Double-A, I gave him a conservative Grade C+.

 

Jason Stokes continues to impress people with his power, but he hasn't learned the strike zone and is not a refined hitter. I personally believe that he has a good chance of stalling out as a Triple-A slugger, although he's still young enough to prove that wrong.

 

Bazardo is another live-arm guy, who will move up to Double-A this year. His A-ball record is pretty solid, although his K/IP ratio is consistently below average, despite the fact that he can hit 95 MPH. Because of that I have some concerns about how he will hold up against better competition. Eric Reed has a career .306 average and is a major stolen base threat, but he lacks power and his plate discipline is inconsistent.

 

Josh Johnson suffers from the fact that his name is "Josh Johnson." If he had a more eye-catching name (Lance Powers, or Noble Valentine, or anything more interesting than "Josh Johnson") he'd get more attention. As it is, he's a 6-7 21-year-old righthander with decent command, a good sinker, and an adequate Class A track record.

 

Brad Davis is a Long Beach State product drafted last June. He has a good glove and made progress with the stick last year, but there's still some doubt about his bat at higher levels. Adam Bostick is a lefty with a consistently excellent K/IP ratio at the Class A level (163 K in 114 IP last year). He's got a great curveball, but his fastball is erratic (ranging from 86 to 93) and his command waivers.

 

Trevor Hutchinson and Randy Messenger were in Double-A last year and are looking for jobs. Messenger is more overpowering but is confined to a relief role. Hutchinson throws strikes but his stuff is marginal. Both look like "role pitchers" to me. You can make a case to put them higher on the list, above Bostick at least, depending on how you want to weight their better chance to help compared to the risky upside evident in Bostick's K/IP and youth.

 

Chris Aguila can hit .250-.270 with moderate power at the Major League level, adequate for a reserve job. Belisario is another guy with a good arm (90-95 MPH) but an erratic track record and weak K/IP marks given his velocity. Rule 5 guy Hagerty (from the Cubs system via trade with the Orioles) is a good bet to stick on the roster for rehab purposes. I liked him a lot before Tommy John; we just need to see how he recovers.

Shortstops Andino and Wilson can handle their positions but have questionable bats. Andino is younger and has better upside to improve. Wilson made some progress last year, but there is still skepticism about his long-term offensive potential, and he projects best as a bench guy.

 

UPDATE: I answered a few questions at MarlinBaseball.com about the Florida system.

Must admit I was a bit bummed out with the Willingham assessment.

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That's roughly a .332 OBP that he's projecting for Willingham.

Better than Encarnacion has posted since 1998 with 164 at bats.

Better than Conine's three-year average.

2 points shy of LoDuca's three-year average, but with 4 more home runs.

 

 

Thanks a lot, Ramp. Can't help but to say I'm disappointed with some of the answers (certainly, not the effort though, thanks John). Then again, nc marlin said in the other post that Sickels is usually conservative.

Must admit I was a bit bummed out with the Willingham assessment.

711131[/snapback]

That's roughly a .332 OBP that he's projecting for Willingham.

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Well by my math:

 

375 ABs

Avg .242

BB 50

 

375*.242= 90.75 = 91 hits

 

91 + 50 = 141

 

141/375 = .376 OBP

 

 

But you know, thats my math... not like I know what I am doing.

Must admit I was a bit bummed out with the Willingham assessment.

711131[/snapback]

That's roughly a .332 OBP that he's projecting for Willingham.

711452[/snapback]

 

Well by my math:

 

375 ABs

Avg .242

BB 50

 

375*.242= 90.75 = 91 hits

 

91 + 50 = 141

 

141/375 = .376 OBP

 

 

But you know, thats my math... not like I know what I am doing.

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You have to add the 50 to the at-bats also.

Must admit I was a bit bummed out with the Willingham assessment.

711131[/snapback]

That's roughly a .332 OBP that he's projecting for Willingham.

711452[/snapback]

 

Well by my math:

 

375 ABs

Avg .242

BB 50

 

375*.242= 90.75 = 91 hits

 

91 + 50 = 141

 

141/375 = .376 OBP

 

 

But you know, thats my math... not like I know what I am doing.

711538[/snapback]

You have to add the 50 to the at-bats also.

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If you gave him 375 at-bats, I'd estimate something like a .242, 15 homer performance, with 50 walks or so, solid OBP.

 

I think he is including them.

 

Sounds a lot like a certain Choi at the plate ... just right handed.

essentially OBP=total times reached base/total plate appearances

 

so 141/425=.332

First post. I'm a Baseball Think Factory writer who holds a partial season ticket plan for the Mudcats. (ncmarlin, drop me a note; maybe we can get together for a game or three at the new park in G'boro).

 

I posted some comments on Sickels' thread on the prospects I saw at Carolina last year. Frankly, none of them were particularly impressive to me. Willingham isn't a catcher; his footwork isn't very good, he has trouble with low pitches, and he doesn't frame pitches very well either. His bat probably isn't strong enough to hold down a full-time corner job, and I honestly think he's too patient at the plate; he lets an awful lot of strikes go by.

 

Stokes reminds me way too much of Dave Kingman. He swings at too many bad pitches. When he gets a hold of one he can hit it a long way, but he's just got too many holes in his swing.

 

Messenger probably has the best chance to contribute in the majors, if he gets his head screwed on straight. Hutchinson was hurt last year, but wasn't particularly consistent even when he was healthy. Reed also missed most of the season, and while he does remind me a lot of Juan Pierre, he swings and misses more often than Pierre ever did.

 

Looking forward to see Hermida and some of the pitchers this year.

First post. I'm a Baseball Think Factory writer who holds a partial season ticket plan for the Mudcats. (ncmarlin, drop me a note; maybe we can get together for a game or three at the new park in G'boro).

 

I posted some comments on Sickels' thread on the prospects I saw at Carolina last year. Frankly, none of them were particularly impressive to me. Willingham isn't a catcher; his footwork isn't very good, he has trouble with low pitches, and he doesn't frame pitches very well either. His bat probably isn't strong enough to hold down a full-time corner job, and I honestly think he's too patient at the plate; he lets an awful lot of strikes go by.

 

Stokes reminds me way too much of Dave Kingman. He swings at too many bad pitches. When he gets a hold of one he can hit it a long way, but he's just got too many holes in his swing.

 

Messenger probably has the best chance to contribute in the majors, if he gets his head screwed on straight. Hutchinson was hurt last year, but wasn't particularly consistent even when he was healthy. Reed also missed most of the season, and while he does remind me a lot of Juan Pierre, he swings and misses more often than Pierre ever did.

 

Looking forward to see Hermida and some of the pitchers this year.

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Welcome to the boards. I hope you'll post here often, because it's always great to get more people here with knowledge of the marlins' minor league system.

 

The Mudcats are going to have a strong team I think this year. Especially the starting pitching, with Olsen, Kensing, Bazardo, and Johnson, and probably adding Vargas and Tankersley near the end of the season.

Great work guys. Good questions and thanks to Mr. Sickels for helping out.