Posted April 21, 200519 yr With 76 runs scored, our offense is tied with the Cubs for second best in the league. With only 34 runs allowed, our pitching is the best in baseball by 10 runs. Our .833 expected winning percentage is the best in baseball by a ton.
April 21, 200519 yr Our .833 expected winning percentage is the best in baseball by a ton. 749936[/snapback] So we are under-performing more than any other team?! AWESOME! I don't see how it is a positive when you say, "This is how good we are suppose to be, but we really arent." I'd rather be like the Dodgers who actually have a higher winning percentage than we are even "suppose to" have.
April 21, 200519 yr Author Our .833 expected winning percentage is the best in baseball by a ton. 749936[/snapback] So we are under-performing more than any other team?! AWESOME! I don't see how it is a positive when you say, "This is how good we are suppose to be, but we really arent." I'd rather be like the Dodgers who acctually have a higher winning percentage than we are even "suppose to" have. 749938[/snapback] An expected winning percentage much higher than the true record early in the season indicates the true record is a bit of a statiscal fluke. In other words, given a larger sample size, our record will more closely match the expected W/L. That's certainly something to feel good about. That said, .833 (which I'm sure won't hold up after we play more games and the runs allowed figure becomes more normal) isn't monumentally higher than our 9-6 (.600) record.
April 21, 200519 yr Author Could you explain the expected W/L record? How do they come up with that number? 749947[/snapback] Basically you look at the total number of runs a team has scored and the number of runs the team has allowed to approximate roughly what the team's record should be. Expected winning pct is calculated using the pythagorean theorem of baseball: (runs scored squared) / (runs scored squared + runs allowed squared). For example, if a team has scored 700 runs and allowed 700 runs, you'd expect it to be roughly a .500 team. If you graph expected win-loss and actual win-loss for a given season, you'll see that the numbers follow relatively well. Try picking out some random teams from last season and compare their actual W-L to their expected W-L.
April 21, 200519 yr Our .833 expected winning percentage is the best in baseball by a ton. 749936[/snapback] So we are under-performing more than any other team?! AWESOME! I don't see how it is a positive when you say, "This is how good we are suppose to be, but we really arent." I'd rather be like the Dodgers who actually have a higher winning percentage than we are even "suppose to" have. 749938[/snapback] We will finish with a better record than the Dodgers....book it.
April 21, 200519 yr How about not allowing more than 4 runs in any game so far this season? Odd though, it's been feast or famine for the most part on offense. Still no saves for the team either. We either lose a 2-1 type game, or completely destroy the other team. Gotta love what we're seeing from the offense last few games. :thumbup
April 21, 200519 yr Our .833 expected winning percentage is the best in baseball by a ton. 749936[/snapback] So we are under-performing more than any other team?! AWESOME! I don't see how it is a positive when you say, "This is how good we are suppose to be, but we really arent." I'd rather be like the Dodgers who actually have a higher winning percentage than we are even "suppose to" have. 749938[/snapback] Over time these numbers will normalize, meaning that over the course of the season the actual record will beging to approach the expected record.
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